{"id":1685,"date":"2017-03-07T16:05:20","date_gmt":"2017-03-07T22:05:20","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/?p=1685"},"modified":"2017-03-07T16:05:27","modified_gmt":"2017-03-07T22:05:27","slug":"2017-american-tournament-forecast","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/2017-american-tournament-forecast\/","title":{"rendered":"2017 American tournament forecast"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>American Athletic\u00a0Conference<\/strong>\u00a0(conference rank: 7th)<br \/>\nMarch 9-12<br \/>\nAll games at Connecticut.<br \/>\n<strong>kPOY:<\/strong>\u00a0Semi Ojeleye, SMU.<br \/>\n<strong>Regular season champ:<\/strong>\u00a0SMU (preseason #49 \/ 3rd\u00a0American, current #12)<br \/>\n<strong>Overachiever:<\/strong>\u00a0SMU<br \/>\n<strong>Underachiever:<\/strong>\u00a0Connecticut (preseason #41, current #88)<\/p>\n<p>The American wasn&#8217;t a very entertaining conference. It ranked dead last among conferences in both effective field goal percentage and tempo in conference games. Between elite defenses in SMU, Cincinnati, and UCF and the putrid offenses of East Carolina, UCF, and South Florida, there were plenty of opportunities for low-scoring games.<!--more--><\/p>\n<p>SMU took care of business in the regular season losing a lone conference game en route to the conference title. Tim Jankovich embraced the three-point shot relative to his predecessor, running a modern offense that allowed SMU to lead the conference in two-point percentage, three-point percentage, and offensive rebounding percentage. The result was the best offense in an offensively-challenged league by a whopping .12 points per possessions during league play. This after the Mustangs lost three of their top six minutes-earners from last season.<\/p>\n<p>In any other year, Cincinnati&#8217;s two losses would have been good enough to earn the top seed, but the Bearcats were the only team to beat SMU and have to settle for second.\u00a0SMU and Cincinnati lost just once to the rest of the league and combined have roughly an 80% chance of taking the title. Which means there&#8217;s a 20% of bid thievery, led by Houston, but also involving UCF and homestanding UConn.<\/p>\n<pre><b>                  Qtrs Semis Final Champ<\/b>\r\n 1 SMU             100  89.3  73.5  45.8\r\n 2 Cincinnati      100  91.0  62.6  33.8\r\n 3 Houston         100  61.9  23.6   9.1\r\n 4 UCF             100  55.1  13.4   4.1\r\n 6 Connecticut    90.9  37.6  11.6   3.8\r\n 5 Memphis         100  44.9   9.1   2.3\r\n 8 Temple         68.3   8.8   3.6   0.8\r\n 7 Tulsa          70.0   7.8   1.9   0.3\r\n 9 East Carolina  31.7   1.8   0.4   0.06\r\n10 Tulane         30.0   1.2   0.1   0.01\r\n11 South Florida   9.1   0.5   0.02  &lt;.001<\/pre>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>American Athletic\u00a0Conference\u00a0(conference rank: 7th) March 9-12 All games at Connecticut. kPOY:\u00a0Semi Ojeleye, SMU. Regular season champ:\u00a0SMU (preseason #49 \/ 3rd\u00a0American, current #12) Overachiever:\u00a0SMU Underachiever:\u00a0Connecticut (preseason #41, current #88) The American wasn&#8217;t a very entertaining conference. It ranked dead last among conferences in both effective field goal percentage and tempo in conference games. Between elite defenses [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[1],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1685"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1685"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1685\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1704,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1685\/revisions\/1704"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1685"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1685"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1685"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}