Who\u2019s going to be the best three-point shooter in the land this season? If you can predict that, you can call yourself very good at predicting things although I would call you very lucky. I don\u2019t have any special powers here, but I thought it might be fun to put together five shooters that would shoot very well this season. So well that it would be difficult to come up with another five-man team that would beat these guys. <\/p>\n
True to my hermit-like nature, I didn\u2019t consult a bunch of coaches or scouts to come up with this list. I used each player\u2019s shooting numbers over the past two seasons to predict their three-point percentage this season, all from the comfort of my basement. The numbers I used were three-point, two-point, and free throws made and attempted. The three-point and free throw numbers are indicative of a player\u2019s shooting touch. The two-point numbers probably pick up on a mix of shooting touch and size, or at least ability to get off a shot. <\/p>\n
So did you make team? That’s a dumb question, because chances are you don’t play college basketball and you probably suck at three-point shooting. But these five guys do play and they can’t stop and won’t stop making shots.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n Micah Mason, Duquesne (prediction: 42.6%)<\/u><\/p>\n <\/strong> <\/p>\n Brett Olson, Denver (prediction: 42.3%)<\/u><\/p>\n <\/strong> <\/p>\n Michael Frazier, Florida (prediction: 41.0%)<\/u><\/p>\n <\/strong>
\nIn 2014, Mason posted the best three-point shooting season in this millenium (minimum 100 3PA’s) by connecting on 65-of-116 attempts as a sophomore (56.0%). But this selection still has some risk as there isn\u2019t a ton of statistical information on Mason, and that\u2019s reflected in a rather stark regression according to the model. It\u2019s a fact that he also topped the 50 percent mark as a freshman at Drake but that was in just 79 attempts. And he\u2019s attempted just 41 free throws over those two seasons. History suggests this prediction passes the laugh test, though it may be slightly on the low side. Among the 25 all-time best shooting seasons, 15 of those players returned the following season. After making an aggregate 55.8 percent of their threes in their hot year, they followed with an aggregate success rate of 44.0%, and five of the 15 seasons were worse than the model\u2019s prediction for Mason.<\/p>\n
\nOlson has made 44 percent of his 440 attempts from behind the arc over his first three seasons at Denver, so he\u2019s no joke. He may be the only player to post consecutive 40+% seasons in three different conferences. He\u2019s also made 92 percent of this free throws. Among players with a track record, he has a claim as the best shooter in the country. He\u2019s 6-5 and he\u2019ll get good looks in Joe Scott\u2019s system again this season, whatever conference they choose to play in. He\u2019s not Doug McDermott or Ethan Wragge, but in 2015, he passes for one of the safest bets of long-range success. <\/p>\n
\nFrazier has knocked down 45 percent of his 375 attempts in his first two seasons as a Gator. He\u2019s not exactly a high-volume shooter, taking just 21 percent of Florida shots last season. But on a team without many perimeter threats, he was responsible for about half of the team\u2019s three-point attempts when he was on the floor. Florida\u2019s offense had enough threats so that defenses couldn\u2019t key on Frazier\u2019s shooting and that figures to be the case again this season.<\/p>\n