{"id":1596,"date":"2017-03-02T13:28:14","date_gmt":"2017-03-02T19:28:14","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/?p=1596"},"modified":"2017-03-03T12:10:12","modified_gmt":"2017-03-03T18:10:12","slug":"2017-horizon-league-forecast","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/2017-horizon-league-forecast\/","title":{"rendered":"2017 Horizon League tournament forecast"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>Horizon League<\/strong>\u00a0(conference rank: 19th)<br \/>\nMarch 3-7<br \/>\nAll games at Detroit (Joe Louis Arena).<br \/>\n<strong>kPOY: <\/strong>Alec Peters,\u00a0Valparaiso<br \/>\n<strong>Regular season champ:<\/strong>\u00a0Valparaiso (preseason #69 \/ 1st HL, current #94) and Oakland (preseason #163 \/ 3rd HL, current #110)<br \/>\n<strong>Overachiever:<\/strong>\u00a0Northern Kentucky\u00a0(preseason #277, current #155)<br \/>\n<strong>Underachiever:<\/strong>\u00a0Milwaukee (preseason #227, current #280)<\/p>\n<p>The big story out of the Horizon League is that Valpo&#8217;s Alec Peters will be unable to play in the event, or any other event that the Crusaders might participate in the rest of the season. Peters missed the last two games of the regular with a leg\u00a0injury that turned out to be serious enough to <a href=\"http:\/\/www.chicagotribune.com\/suburbs\/post-tribune\/sports\/ct-ptb-mens-basketball-valparaiso-st-0302-20170301-story.html\">require missing the next few weeks<\/a>.<!--more--><\/p>\n<p>Though the resulting chances tabulated below do not consider Peters&#8217; absence, the results of the two games he missed shouldn&#8217;t cause Valpo fans to give up hope. The Crusaders played two games that were expected to be toss-ups: road games against Wright State and Northern Kentucky. They beat Wright State in a tight game and lost to NKU in a close one.<\/p>\n<p>Generally, I think the impact of an injured player is overstated in college hoops. People covering [whatever] tend to overstate the impact of any event, because it&#8217;s good for business to\u00a0say &#8220;hey guys, this is really important!&#8221; No doubt Peters&#8217; injury affects Valpo and the Crusaders always had to deal with the issue of being swept rather easily by Oakland in the regular season, anyway. But they still have Shane Hammink and Tevonn Walker and early indicators are positive that they can take on additional offensive responsibilities.\u00a0While Oakland is surely the actual favorite, Valpo isn&#8217;t far behind and no worse that the second-most likely option this week.<\/p>\n<p>I&#8217;ve given Detroit a half share of home court and Oakland\u00a0a quarter share in this event.<\/p>\n<pre><b>                      Qtrs Semis Final Champ<\/b>\r\n 2 Valparaiso          100  84.5  62.2  36.0\r\n 1 Oakland             100  82.9  54.5  32.3\r\n 4 Northern Kentucky   100  52.2  21.3   9.6\r\n 3 Green Bay           100  67.8  25.0   9.6\r\n 5 Wright St.          100  47.8  18.6   8.1\r\n 6 Illinois Chicago    100  32.2   7.6   1.8\r\n 8 Cleveland St.      65.9  14.1   4.9   1.5\r\n 7 Detroit            56.4   8.8   3.1   0.7\r\n10 Milwaukee          43.6   6.7   2.0   0.4\r\n 9 Youngstown St.     34.1   3.1   0.6   0.1<\/pre>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Horizon League\u00a0(conference rank: 19th) March 3-7 All games at Detroit (Joe Louis Arena). kPOY: Alec Peters,\u00a0Valparaiso Regular season champ:\u00a0Valparaiso (preseason #69 \/ 1st HL, current #94) and Oakland (preseason #163 \/ 3rd HL, current #110) Overachiever:\u00a0Northern Kentucky\u00a0(preseason #277, current #155) Underachiever:\u00a0Milwaukee (preseason #227, current #280) The big story out of the Horizon League is that [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[1],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1596"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1596"}],"version-history":[{"count":7,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1596\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1617,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1596\/revisions\/1617"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1596"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1596"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1596"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}