Below is the outcome of applying the log5 equation to my ratings. All values represent the percent chance of a team advancing to a particular round based on this humble model. No injuries or personnel issues are taken into account and the current rating is considered to be the true reflection of each team’s strength. Each region is presented individually followed by the entire field. Let me know if you see any errors.<\/p>\n
Seed Team Rd32 Swt16 Elite8 Final4 Final Champ 1 in…\n 1MW Kentucky 97.9 89.7 81.5 68.0 46.1 33.8 3\n 3MW Notre Dame 87.5 53.6 29.2 8.1 2.8 1.1 91\n 2MW Kansas 83.5 48.4 26.9 7.4 2.5 1.0 101\n 7MW Wichita St. 73.4 39.5 21.2 5.6 1.8 0.7 146\n11MW Texas 52.4 23.6 10.5 2.3 0.6 0.2 550\n 5MW West Virginia 62.6 36.9 6.0 2.4 0.6 0.2 660\n 6MW Butler 47.6 20.4 8.6 1.7 0.4 0.1 815\n 4MW Maryland 61.6 30.9 4.4 1.5 0.3 0.08 1318\n 8MW Cincinnati 56.6 6.1 3.1 1.1 0.2 0.05 2007\n12MW Buffalo 37.4 17.4 1.9 0.5 0.09 0.02 6114\n 9MW Purdue 43.4 3.8 1.7 0.5 0.08 0.01 6673\n10MW Indiana 26.6 8.4 2.5 0.3 0.05 0.01 9915\n13MW Valparaiso 38.4 14.9 1.5 0.4 0.05 0.009 11153\n15MW New Mexico St. 16.5 3.8 0.8 0.07 0.007 0.0009 116241\n14MW Northeastern 12.5 2.3 0.4 0.03 0.002 0.0002 542397\n16MW Manhattan 1.8 0.4 0.08 0.01 0.0006 <.0001 2167482\n16MW Hampton 0.3 0.03 0.003 0.0001 <.0001 <.0001 932647504\n\nSeed Team Rd32 Swt16 Elite8 Final4 Final Champ 1 in…\n 2W Arizona 97.7 81.2 65.8 42.1 21.7 13.9 7\n 1W Wisconsin 95.6 81.8 64.2 36.4 17.4 10.5 10\n 4W North Carolina 79.4 54.5 19.0 6.7 1.9 0.7 142\n 3W Baylor 77.2 49.4 15.3 5.9 1.7 0.6 159\n10W Ohio St. 55.8 11.1 5.5 1.7 0.4 0.1 842\n 5W Arkansas 73.3 31.6 7.9 2.0 0.4 0.1 1002\n 6W Xavier 55.4 24.8 5.6 1.6 0.3 0.09 1095\n 7W VCU 44.2 7.4 3.3 0.9 0.2 0.04 2267\n 9W Oklahoma St. 52.8 9.4 3.9 0.8 0.1 0.03 3084\n11W BYU 26.9 11.4 2.4 0.6 0.1 0.03 3131\n 8W Oregon 47.2 7.8 3.0 0.6 0.1 0.02 5093\n11W Mississippi 17.8 6.5 1.1 0.3 0.04 0.008 11837\n14W Georgia St. 22.8 7.9 1.0 0.18 0.02 0.003 29548\n13W Harvard 20.6 7.7 1.1 0.15 0.02 0.002 43616\n12W Wofford 26.7 6.1 0.7 0.09 0.008 0.0009 110472\n16W C. Carolina 4.4 1.0 0.2 0.01 0.0007 <.0001 1966903\n15W Texas Southern 2.3 0.2 0.02 0.001 <.0001 <.0001 44005517\n\nSeed Team Rd32 Swt16 Elite8 Final4 Final Champ 1 in…\n 2S Gonzaga 93.8 70.5 48.5 29.0 14.5 5.4 19\n 1S Duke 93.0 70.8 45.2 26.3 12.6 4.5 22\n 5S Utah 73.7 51.7 27.4 14.6 6.3 2.0 51\n 3S Iowa St. 86.6 54.0 24.0 11.1 4.1 1.1 94\n 4S Georgetown 83.7 33.9 12.9 4.9 1.4 0.3 359\n 6S SMU 62.6 29.7 11.0 4.3 1.3 0.3 375\n 7S Iowa 55.3 16.7 7.6 2.7 0.8 0.1 700\n 8S San Diego St. 57.5 17.3 6.8 2.3 0.6 0.1 963\n10S Davidson 44.7 11.8 4.8 1.5 0.4 0.06 1735\n12S S.F. Austin 26.3 12.4 3.8 1.1 0.3 0.04 2656\n11S UCLA 37.4 13.5 3.6 1.0 0.2 0.03 3405\n 9S St. John's 42.5 10.5 3.4 1.0 0.2 0.03 3677\n14S UAB 13.4 2.8 0.3 0.04 0.004 0.0002 440808\n13S E. Washington 16.3 2.0 0.2 0.03 0.002 0.0001 926304\n16S North Florida 5.0 1.1 0.2 0.02 0.002 <.0001 1099775\n15S N. Dakota St. 6.2 1.0 0.1 0.01 0.001 <.0001 2340659\n16S Robert Morris 2.0 0.3 0.03 0.002 0.0001 <.0001 20838622\n\nSeed Team Rd32 Swt16 Elite8 Final4 Final Champ 1 in…\n 1E Villanova 96.8 81.6 60.2 35.9 23.1 10.0 10\n 2E Virginia 95.2 75.3 55.7 33.6 21.8 9.6 10\n 3E Oklahoma 89.1 61.3 24.4 10.5 4.9 1.4 73\n 5E Northern Iowa 85.1 54.5 20.8 8.6 3.9 1.0 97\n 4E Louisville 78.8 37.1 11.6 3.9 1.4 0.3 333\n 7E Michigan St. 61.6 16.5 7.9 2.7 1.0 0.2 461\n 6E Providence 56.8 22.0 5.8 1.7 0.5 0.09 1101\n 8E N.C. State 51.9 9.6 3.5 0.9 0.2 0.03 3039\n10E Georgia 38.4 7.4 2.8 0.7 0.2 0.03 3510\n 9E LSU 48.1 8.3 2.9 0.7 0.2 0.02 4339\n11E Dayton 27.9 9.2 2.0 0.5 0.1 0.02 5921\n11E Boise St. 15.3 5.1 1.1 0.3 0.07 0.01 9810\n13E UC Irvine 21.2 4.5 0.6 0.07 0.01 0.0007 135526\n12E Wyoming 14.9 3.9 0.4 0.05 0.007 0.0005 209817\n14E Albany 10.9 2.4 0.2 0.02 0.002 0.0001 931117\n15E Belmont 4.8 0.8 0.1 0.01 0.0009 <.0001 2436044\n16E Lafayette 3.2 0.5 0.05 0.003 0.0002 <.0001 18530434\n\nSeed Team Rd32 Swt16 Elite8 Final4 Final Champ 1 in…\n 1MW Kentucky 97.9 89.7 81.5 68.0 46.1 33.8 3\n 2W Arizona 97.7 81.2 65.8 42.1 21.7 13.9 7\n 1W Wisconsin 95.6 81.8 64.2 36.4 17.4 10.5 10\n 1E Villanova 96.8 81.6 60.2 35.9 23.1 10.0 10\n 2E Virginia 95.2 75.3 55.7 33.6 21.8 9.6 10\n 2S Gonzaga 93.8 70.5 48.5 29.0 14.5 5.4 19\n 1S Duke 93.0 70.8 45.2 26.3 12.6 4.5 22\n 5S Utah 73.7 51.7 27.4 14.6 6.3 2.0 51\n 3E Oklahoma 89.1 61.3 24.4 10.5 4.9 1.4 73\n 3MW Notre Dame 87.5 53.6 29.2 8.1 2.8 1.1 91\n 3S Iowa St. 86.6 54.0 24.0 11.1 4.1 1.1 94\n 5E Northern Iowa 85.1 54.5 20.8 8.6 3.9 1.0 97\n 2MW Kansas 83.5 48.4 26.9 7.4 2.5 1.0 101\n 4W North Carolina 79.4 54.5 19.0 6.7 1.9 0.7 142\n 7MW Wichita St. 73.4 39.5 21.2 5.6 1.8 0.7 146\n 3W Baylor 77.2 49.4 15.3 5.9 1.7 0.6 159\n 4E Louisville 78.8 37.1 11.6 3.9 1.4 0.3 333\n 4S Georgetown 83.7 33.9 12.9 4.9 1.4 0.3 359\n 6S SMU 62.6 29.7 11.0 4.3 1.3 0.3 375\n 7E Michigan St. 61.6 16.5 7.9 2.7 1.0 0.2 461\n11MW Texas 52.4 23.6 10.5 2.3 0.6 0.2 550\n 5MW West Virginia 62.6 36.9 6.0 2.4 0.6 0.2 660\n 7S Iowa 55.3 16.7 7.6 2.7 0.8 0.1 700\n 6MW Butler 47.6 20.4 8.6 1.7 0.4 0.1 815\n10W Ohio St. 55.8 11.1 5.5 1.7 0.4 0.1 842\n 8S San Diego St. 57.5 17.3 6.8 2.3 0.6 0.1 963\n 5W Arkansas 73.3 31.6 7.9 2.0 0.4 0.1 1002\n 6W Xavier 55.4 24.8 5.6 1.6 0.3 0.09 1095\n 6E Providence 56.8 22.0 5.8 1.7 0.5 0.09 1101\n 4MW Maryland 61.6 30.9 4.4 1.5 0.3 0.08 1318\n10S Davidson 44.7 11.8 4.8 1.5 0.4 0.06 1735\n 8MW Cincinnati 56.6 6.1 3.1 1.1 0.2 0.05 2007\n 7W VCU 44.2 7.4 3.3 0.9 0.2 0.04 2267\n12S S.F. Austin 26.3 12.4 3.8 1.1 0.3 0.04 2656\n 8E N.C. State 51.9 9.6 3.5 0.9 0.2 0.03 3039\n 9W Oklahoma St. 52.8 9.4 3.9 0.8 0.1 0.03 3084\n11W BYU 26.9 11.4 2.4 0.6 0.1 0.03 3131\n11S UCLA 37.4 13.5 3.6 1.0 0.2 0.03 3405\n10E Georgia 38.4 7.4 2.8 0.7 0.2 0.03 3510\n 9S St. John's 42.5 10.5 3.4 1.0 0.2 0.03 3677\n 9E LSU 48.1 8.3 2.9 0.7 0.2 0.02 4339\n 8W Oregon 47.2 7.8 3.0 0.6 0.1 0.02 5093\n11E Dayton 27.9 9.2 2.0 0.5 0.1 0.02 5921\n12MW Buffalo 37.4 17.4 1.9 0.5 0.09 0.02 6114\n 9MW Purdue 43.4 3.8 1.7 0.5 0.08 0.01 6673\n11E Boise St. 15.3 5.1 1.1 0.3 0.07 0.01 9810\n10MW Indiana 26.6 8.4 2.5 0.3 0.05 0.01 9915\n13MW Valparaiso 38.4 14.9 1.5 0.4 0.05 0.009 11153\n11W Mississippi 17.8 6.5 1.1 0.3 0.04 0.008 11837\n14W Georgia St. 22.8 7.9 1.0 0.18 0.02 0.003 29548\n13W Harvard 20.6 7.7 1.1 0.15 0.02 0.002 43616\n12W Wofford 26.7 6.1 0.7 0.09 0.008 0.0009 110472\n15MW New Mexico St. 16.5 3.8 0.8 0.07 0.007 0.0009 116241\n13E UC Irvine 21.2 4.5 0.6 0.07 0.01 0.0007 135526\n12E Wyoming 14.9 3.9 0.4 0.05 0.007 0.0005 209817\n14S UAB 13.4 2.8 0.3 0.04 0.004 0.0002 440808\n14MW Northeastern 12.5 2.3 0.4 0.03 0.002 0.0002 542397\n13S E. Washington 16.3 2.0 0.2 0.03 0.002 0.0001 926304\n14E Albany 10.9 2.4 0.2 0.02 0.002 0.0001 931117\n16S North Florida 5.0 1.1 0.2 0.02 0.002 <.0001 1099775\n16W C. Carolina 4.4 1.0 0.2 0.01 0.0007 <.0001 1966903\n16MW Manhattan 1.8 0.4 0.08 0.01 0.0006 <.0001 2167482\n15S N. Dakota St. 6.2 1.0 0.1 0.01 0.001 <.0001 2340659\n15E Belmont 4.8 0.8 0.1 0.01 0.0009 <.0001 2436044\n16E Lafayette 3.2 0.5 0.05 0.003 0.0002 <.0001 18530434\n16S Robert Morris 2.0 0.3 0.03 0.002 0.0001 <.0001 20838622\n15W Texas Southern 2.3 0.2 0.02 0.001 <.0001 <.0001 44005517\n16MW Hampton 0.3 0.03 0.003 0.0001 <.0001 <.0001 932647504\n<\/pre>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Below is the outcome of applying the log5 equation to my ratings. All values represent the percent chance of a team advancing to a particular round based on this humble model. No injuries or personnel issues are taken into account and the current rating is considered to be the true reflection of each team’s strength. 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