{"id":101,"date":"2015-03-27T22:52:12","date_gmt":"2015-03-28T04:52:12","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/67.227.157.91\/~kenpom\/wp_blog\/the-nrg-effect\/"},"modified":"2015-03-27T22:52:12","modified_gmt":"2015-03-28T04:52:12","slug":"the-nrg-effect","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/the-nrg-effect\/","title":{"rendered":"The NRG effect"},"content":{"rendered":"

[Note: This post has been updated with the games from a 2002 regular-season triple-header played at Reliant Stadium where teams shot reasonably well. Thanks to @botskey<\/a> for the tip. NRG still seems hostile to shooters, but per David Worlock’s information<\/a>, I’m still open to the possibility of randomness.]<\/em><\/p>\n

[Update 2: The 2002 games apparently had a more cozy configuration<\/a> and may not be relevant to the shooting woes in more recent games.]<\/em><\/p>\n

After Friday’s action, there have been 15 college basketball games played in NRG neé Reliant Stadium since it opened in 2002. In those games, the 30 participating teams have made 178 of their 553 3-point attempts for a success rate of 32.2 percent. This could be the result of cataclysmic randomness, but if a team shot 32.2 percent over 30 games, you\u2019d be pretty convinced they weren\u2019t a very good shooting team. A team shooting like that this season would rank 260th in Division-I, and this includes six games using the shorter 3-point line.<\/p>\n

Furthermore, none of the 30 teams involved shot lower than 30 percent for the season in which they played at NRG\/Reliant. Not every team was as good as Gonzaga this season or Saint Mary\u2019s in 2010, but in aggregate, they made 36.3 percent of their 3\u2019s in those seasons. In 553 attempts, we would expect those teams to make 201 3\u2019s given their season-long percentage, or 23 more than they did. That difference is about two standard deviations off of the expectation. <\/p>\n

While there may be some impact of playing against better defenses in these games, I\u2019m also giving the teams a break here. I didn\u2019t subtract out the Reliant\/NRG games from their season percentages, which would make the gap even larger. Whether it\u2019s the Final Four where the entire stadium is exposed, or the configuration for this year\u2019s regionals where a giant black curtain is hanging well behind the basket, it appears that it\u2019s only slightly easier to make 3-point shots at NRG Stadium than it is on an aircraft carrier. <\/p>\n

Year  Team         Opp         3PM 3PA  Tm3P%  Exp3PM  Diff<\/u>\n2002  LSU          Texas A&M    13  26  .377    9.8    +3.2\n2002  Texas A&M    LSU          11  19  .363    6.9    +4.1\n2002  Seton Hall   Texas         4  13  .316    4.1    -0.1\n2002  Texas        Seton Hall    4  12  .356    4.3    -0.3\n2002  Baylor       Houston      10  27  .342    9.2    +0.8\n2002  Houston      Baylor        7  21  .304    6.4    +0.6\n2008  Memphis      Michigan St.  4  13  .349    4.5    -0.5\n2008  Michigan St. Memphis       5  18  .370    6.7    -1.7\n2008  Stanford     Texas         6  17  .366    6.2    -0.2\n2008  Texas        Stanford      7  22  .380    8.4    -1.4\n2008  Texas        Memphis       9  28  .380    1.6    -1.6\n2008  Memphis      Texas         3  11  .349    3.8    -0.8\n2010  Duke         Purdue        6  15  .385    5.8    +0.2\n2010  Purdue       Duke          4  15  .319    4.8    -0.8\n2010  Baylor       St. Mary's    8  17  .382    6.5    +1.5\n2010  St. Mary's   Baylor        6  22  .405    8.9    -2.9\n2010  Duke         Baylor       11  23  .385    8.9    +2.1\n2010  Baylor       Duke          5  18  .382    6.9    -1.9\n2011  Kentucky     Connecticut   9  27  .397   10.7    -1.7\n2011  Connecticut  Kentucky      1  12  .329    3.9    -2.9\n2011  Butler       VCU           8  23  .352    8.1    -0.1\n2011  VCU          Butler        8  22  .370    8.1    -0.1\n2011  Butler       Connecticut   9  33  .352   11.6    -2.6\n2011  Connecticut  Butler        1  11  .329    3.6    -2.6\n2013  UCLA         Texas         2  11  .333    3.7    -1.7\n2013  Texas        UCLA          4  20  .301    6.0    -2.0\n2015  Gonzaga      UCLA          3  19  .403    7.7    -4.7\n2015  UCLA         Gonzaga       3  13  .368    4.8    -1.8\n2015  Duke         Utah          3   9  .389    3.5    -0.5\n2015  Utah         Duke          4  16  .405    6.5    -2.5\nTOTAL                          178 553                -22.9\n\n<\/pre>\n
Tm3P% – season long 3P% for each team
\nExp3PM – expected made 3-pointers made on game attempts and season 3P%
\nDiff – difference between made and expected 3-pointers.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
[Note: This post has been updated with the games from a 2002 regular-season triple-header played at Reliant Stadium where teams shot reasonably well. Thanks to @botskey for the tip. NRG still seems hostile to shooters, but per David Worlock’s information, I’m still open to the possibility of randomness.] [Update 2: The 2002 games apparently had […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[1],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/101"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=101"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/101\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=101"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=101"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kenpom.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=101"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}