Late Thursday night, Saint Mary’s suffered its first loss of the season at the hands of UT-Arlington, reducing the number of unbeatens nationally to eight. Going back to the 2000 season (because that’s as far back as my database goes) that’s the fewest number of unbeatens at this point in the season.
Perhaps equally interesting is that there are just two unbeatens in the top ten of today’s ratings. So this particular group seems to be weaker than the normal crop of unbeatens. That doesn’t necessarily mean we will have a bunch of carnage in the coming weeks. The strength of the group is one part of the equation and the strength of their schedule is the other part.
It seems likely that Gonzaga will make it to a January 14 game against Saint Mary’s without a loss. They actually have about a 1 in 30 chance of getting through the regular season unblemished if the current ratings are to be believed. But none of the other seven have a one percent chance to do so.
The table below gives you the number of unbeatens after the specified number of days into the season for each season since 2000. It would be more convenient to do it by calendar date, but each season starts on a different date so that would be a little misleading. In fact, before the 2013 season the standard opening day didn’t exactly exist. There were exempt tournaments that were contested before everyone else was allowed to play a game. So I’ve defined day zero as the first day in a season where there were 30 games on the schedule. But I’ve also included the corresponding date for the current season.
Anyway, today we will lose at least one more unbeaten unless the Villanova vs. Notre Dame game ends in a tie and that hasn’t happened in many years. That will keep us ahead of the pace of any previous season since 2000. But it’s very unlikely that this season’s last unbeaten loses before it did in the 2002 season, when Duke lost on January 6th in a time when the season started a week later than it does today.
Season day 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 av mx mn 10 63 77 54 65 78 62 65 88 90 76 76 69 71 80 80 76 74 75 73 90 54 11/21/16 11 59 73 52 61 76 56 63 81 83 69 68 64 64 72 79 65 62 67 67 83 52 12 51 67 44 53 63 52 51 65 77 64 60 57 58 63 73 60 60 57 60 77 44 13 46 61 36 46 51 42 42 60 69 59 55 51 50 58 69 50 53 47 52 69 36 14 44 54 32 44 51 39 42 58 65 55 50 47 45 53 64 46 45 41 49 65 32 15 43 52 32 43 50 38 41 52 54 39 40 41 34 43 60 39 39 29 43 60 29 16 30 41 26 34 37 30 29 41 41 32 32 34 29 34 56 35 31 26 34 56 26 17 29 39 24 31 37 29 29 39 39 29 30 32 27 33 52 30 28 24 32 52 24 18 28 36 23 31 36 28 28 36 37 29 29 30 26 33 44 30 27 22 31 44 22 19 24 32 19 29 33 25 26 34 34 28 27 28 24 32 38 26 24 19 28 38 19 20 22 27 18 28 31 23 25 28 31 22 22 24 21 28 36 22 19 15 25 36 15 12/01/16 21 22 23 18 27 30 22 24 27 30 22 21 24 19 28 32 20 18 15 23 32 15 22 21 22 18 27 30 21 24 26 28 22 19 23 18 28 25 18 16 15 22 30 15 23 13 18 12 22 24 18 21 20 21 19 17 20 17 21 22 12 14 11 18 24 11 24 13 18 12 20 22 18 20 17 18 18 16 19 15 20 21 12 13 11 17 22 11 25 13 18 12 20 21 18 20 17 18 18 16 19 15 20 21 11 12 11 17 21 11 26 13 18 11 18 21 18 20 15 18 17 16 18 14 20 19 10 10 11 16 21 10 27 13 18 10 18 20 18 19 14 17 16 16 17 14 18 18 10 10 9 15 20 9 28 13 18 10 16 20 18 18 13 17 16 15 16 12 18 17 10 10 8 15 20 8 29 13 18 10 16 20 18 18 13 17 16 15 16 12 18 17 10 10 8 15 20 10 day 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 av mx mn 30 10 17 8 11 17 15 16 9 16 15 14 14 9 14 15 9 8 7 13 17 8 12/11/16 31 10 16 8 11 17 14 16 9 15 14 11 14 9 14 15 9 8 12 17 8 32 10 16 8 11 16 14 16 9 15 13 11 14 9 14 15 9 8 12 16 8 33 10 15 8 11 15 14 16 8 14 13 11 12 9 14 14 9 8 12 16 8 34 6 13 8 11 15 13 16 8 14 13 11 12 9 14 14 9 8 11 16 6 35 5 12 7 11 15 13 14 8 14 13 11 12 9 13 14 9 8 11 15 5 36 5 9 6 11 15 13 13 8 14 13 11 12 9 11 14 9 8 11 15 5 37 5 7 5 8 14 13 13 6 14 10 8 9 8 9 14 9 6 9 14 5 38 5 7 5 8 13 13 13 6 14 10 8 9 7 8 14 9 6 9 14 5 39 5 7 5 6 13 13 13 5 13 10 8 9 6 8 14 9 6 9 14 5 40 5 7 5 4 12 11 13 5 13 10 7 8 6 8 13 8 5 8 13 4 12/21/16 41 5 7 5 4 11 10 11 5 13 10 6 8 6 8 12 8 5 8 13 4 42 4 7 5 4 11 9 11 5 12 10 6 8 6 8 12 8 5 8 12 4 43 4 7 5 4 11 8 10 4 12 10 6 8 6 8 12 8 5 8 12 4 44 4 7 5 4 10 8 9 4 9 9 6 8 6 5 10 7 5 7 10 4 45 3 7 5 3 10 7 9 4 9 9 6 8 6 5 9 6 5 7 10 3 46 3 7 5 3 10 6 9 4 9 8 6 7 6 5 9 6 5 6 10 3 47 3 6 5 2 9 6 7 4 9 7 6 7 6 5 9 6 4 6 9 2 48 3 6 4 2 9 4 7 4 9 6 6 7 4 5 9 6 4 6 9 2 49 3 6 4 2 9 4 7 4 9 6 6 7 4 4 9 6 3 5 9 2 day 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 av mx mn 50 3 6 4 2 9 4 7 4 8 5 5 7 4 4 9 6 3 5 9 2 12/31/16 51 1 5 1 2 8 4 5 3 6 5 4 7 4 4 8 3 3 4 8 1 52 1 4 0 1 7 4 4 3 6 4 4 7 4 4 8 3 3 4 8 0 53 1 4 0 1 7 4 4 3 6 4 4 7 4 4 7 3 2 4 7 0 54 1 3 0 1 5 4 4 3 6 3 4 7 4 4 7 3 2 4 7 0 55 1 2 0 1 4 4 3 3 6 3 4 7 4 4 7 3 2 3 7 0 56 1 2 0 1 4 4 3 2 6 3 4 7 4 4 7 3 2 3 7 0 58 1 2 0 0 4 4 3 1 6 3 3 6 3 4 7 3 2 3 7 0 59 1 2 0 0 4 4 3 1 6 3 2 5 3 4 6 2 2 3 6 0 60 1 2 0 0 3 4 3 1 6 3 2 5 3 4 6 2 2 3 6 0 01/10/17 61 1 2 0 0 3 4 3 1 6 3 2 5 3 4 5 2 2 3 6 0 62 1 2 0 0 2 4 3 1 5 3 2 4 3 3 5 2 1 2 5 0 63 1 2 0 0 2 4 3 1 5 3 2 4 3 2 5 2 1 2 5 0 65 1 1 0 0 2 3 0 0 3 1 2 4 3 1 4 2 1 2 4 0 66 1 1 0 0 2 3 0 0 3 1 2 4 3 0 4 2 1 2 4 0 67 1 1 0 0 2 3 0 0 3 1 1 3 2 0 4 2 1 1 4 0 68 1 1 0 0 2 3 0 0 3 1 1 3 2 0 3 2 1 1 3 0 69 1 1 0 0 2 2 0 0 3 0 1 3 2 0 3 2 1 1 3 0 day 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 av mx mn 72 1 1 0 0 2 2 0 0 2 0 1 2 1 0 3 2 1 1 3 0 01/22/17 73 1 1 0 0 2 2 0 0 2 0 1 2 1 0 3 2 0 1 3 0 75 1 1 0 0 2 2 0 0 2 0 0 2 1 0 3 2 0 1 3 0 76 1 1 0 0 2 2 0 0 2 0 0 1 1 0 3 2 0 1 3 0 79 1 0 0 0 2 2 0 0 2 0 0 1 1 0 3 1 0 1 3 0 81 0 0 0 0 2 2 0 0 2 0 0 1 1 0 3 1 0 1 3 0 01/31/17 82 0 0 0 0 2 1 0 0 2 0 0 1 1 0 3 1 0 1 3 0 83 0 0 0 0 2 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 3 1 0 1 3 0 86 0 0 0 0 2 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 2 1 0 1 2 0 91 0 0 0 0 2 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 2 1 0 0 2 0 02/10/17 93 0 0 0 0 2 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 2 1 0 0 2 0 104 0 0 0 0 2 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 2 0 02/23/17 107 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 108 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 112 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 03/03/17