Welcome to the H.U.M.A.N. poll. No longer do you have to wait years hoping the Associated Press will give you one of its 60-ish coveted spots to vote in a poll ranking the top 25. Now, with a kenpom.com subscription, you can participate in the world’s first human-based 1-362 preseason poll for college basketball. Instead of the elite voting in a poll honoring the elite, everyone can vote in a poll honoring every team. 

Upon clicking this link you will be given 50 match-ups (subscribers only). In each match-up, your job is to pick the team that will be ranked higher in my ratings at the end of the season (post-tournaments). After polling closes at midnight (Mountain Time) on October 6, everyone’s selections will be aggregated into a 1-362 ranking using the Bradley-Terry algorithm.

Why would you do this? Well, it’s possible that humans can produce something useful for a 1-362 preseason poll. The snag is that it isn’t feasible to ask humans to rank all 362 teams. You could try and do it, and people have. But it’s impossible for humans to organize that much information in a coherent way. And I hear it’s ridiculously time-consuming.

However, humans can build something pretty useful if they just have to focus on a few matchups, especially if we can get a lot more people than vote in the AP poll. Maybe we can produce a poll that beats a computer’s preseason poll or at least informs a better version of a computer-created poll. At least that’s my theory. (more…)

                             Rd2   Swt16  Elite8 Final4 Final  Champ
 1MW Houston                 93.8   71.6   56.7   38.6   23.5   15.0   
 1S  Alabama                 97.6   69.8   52.2   35.8   23.4   13.5   
 2W  UCLA                    94.6   71.1   46.5   29.0   17.3   10.6   
 1E  Purdue                  98.3   63.4   36.7   23.5   12.7    6.3   
 2MW Texas                   88.8   60.4   39.8   21.3   11.0    6.0   
 4E  Tennessee               84.1   57.7   32.1   20.7   11.3    5.7   
 4W  Connecticut             80.1   51.1   31.0   16.4    9.0    5.1   
 3W  Gonzaga                 87.0   60.3   30.1   16.6    8.7    4.7   
 2S  Arizona                 87.0   56.4   34.0   16.7    9.0    4.1   
 1W  Kansas                  95.4   60.8   31.6   15.1    7.5    3.8   
 2E  Marquette               83.7   53.2   33.1   16.1    7.7    3.3   
 5W  Saint Mary's            69.3   33.5   17.5    7.9    3.8    1.8   
 6S  Creighton               67.7   39.1   20.0    8.7    4.2    1.7   
 5S  San Diego St.           70.4   45.2   17.4    8.7    4.2    1.7   
 3S  Baylor                  78.3   42.4   20.9    8.8    4.1    1.6   
 3MW Xavier                  85.0   49.3   22.6    9.6    3.8    1.6   
 3E  Kansas St.              78.4   42.9   20.8    8.4    3.3    1.1   
10S  Utah St.                62.4   28.0   14.1    5.6    2.5    0.9   
 6MW Iowa St.                62.3   32.4   14.0    5.6    2.1    0.9   
 5E  Duke                    62.7   26.2   10.8    5.4    2.2    0.8   
 6E  Kentucky                57.3   31.3   14.9    5.9    2.2    0.8   
 9S  West Virginia           51.8   15.7    8.7    4.1    1.8    0.7   
 7MW Texas A&M               57.6   22.9   11.7    4.7    1.7    0.7   
 4MW Indiana                 63.4   37.1   12.2    5.2    1.8    0.7   
 8E  Memphis                 51.2   18.9    8.3    4.2    1.7    0.6   
 8S  Maryland                48.2   14.2    7.7    3.5    1.5    0.6   
 8W  Arkansas                55.5   22.8    9.4    3.5    1.4    0.5   
 4S  Virginia                67.7   32.1    9.9    4.1    1.6    0.5   
 9E  Florida Atlantic        48.8   17.7    7.7    3.8    1.5    0.5   
 7E  Michigan St.            52.6   23.0   11.5    4.3    1.5    0.5   
 9MW Auburn                  54.7   15.9    9.0    3.8    1.3    0.5   
 6W  TCU                     60.8   24.1    8.6    3.4    1.3    0.5   
10W  Boise St.               55.4   16.4    6.7    2.6    0.9    0.3   
10E  USC                     47.4   19.4    9.2    3.2    1.0    0.3   
 5MW Miami FL                55.9   27.3    7.6    2.8    0.8    0.3   
11E  Providence              42.7   20.2    8.1    2.7    0.8    0.2   
 8MW Iowa                    45.3   11.4    5.9    2.2    0.7    0.2   
 9W  Illinois                44.5   16.0    5.9    1.9    0.7    0.2   
10MW Penn St.                42.4   14.1    6.1    2.1    0.6    0.2   
 7W  Northwestern            44.6   11.4    4.1    1.3    0.4    0.1   
 7S  Missouri                37.6   12.5    4.8    1.4    0.5    0.1   
11S  N.C. State              32.3   13.2    4.4    1.2    0.4    0.10  
12MW Drake                   44.1   19.1    4.6    1.5    0.4    0.10  
11MW Mississippi St.         23.0    9.8    3.3    1.0    0.3    0.09  
12E  Oral Roberts            37.3   11.2    3.2    1.2    0.3    0.08  
11W  Nevada                  23.4    7.8    2.3    0.8    0.2    0.07  
13MW Kent St.                36.6   16.5    3.7    1.1    0.3    0.06  
12W  VCU                     30.7    8.8    2.8    0.7    0.2    0.06  
12S  Charleston              29.6   13.4    2.7    0.8    0.2    0.04  
13W  Iona                    19.9    6.6    1.9    0.4    0.1    0.03  
11W  Arizona St.             15.8    4.4    1.1    0.3    0.08   0.02  
11MW Pittsburgh              14.7    5.2    1.4    0.4    0.08   0.02  
13S  Furman                  32.3    9.3    1.4    0.3    0.08   0.01  
13E  Louisiana               15.9    4.9    1.0    0.2    0.05   0.007 
14S  UC Santa Barbara        21.7    5.3    1.1    0.2    0.04   0.005 
14E  Montana St.             21.6    5.6    1.2    0.2    0.03   0.005 
15E  Vermont                 16.3    4.3    1.1    0.2    0.03   0.004 
14W  Grand Canyon            13.0    3.5    0.5    0.09   0.01   0.002 
15S  Princeton               13.0    3.1    0.7    0.1    0.02   0.002 
15MW Colgate                 11.2    2.7    0.6    0.1    0.01   0.001 
14MW Kennesaw St.            15.0    3.4    0.5    0.06   0.008  <.001 
16MW Northern Kentucky        6.2    1.1    0.2    0.03   0.003  <.001 
15W  UNC Asheville            5.4    1.0    0.1    0.01   0.002  <.001 
16S  Texas A&M Corpus Chris   2.2    0.3    0.04   0.004  <.001  <.001 
16W  Howard                   4.6    0.4    0.03   0.002  <.001  <.001 
16E  Texas Southern           1.1    0.04   0.001  <.001  <.001  <.001 
16S  Southeast Missouri St.   0.3    0.01   <.001  <.001  <.001  <.001 
16E  Fairleigh Dickinson      0.6    0.01   <.001  <.001  <.001  <.001 

                             Rd2   Swt16  Elite8 Final4 Final  Champ
 1E  Purdue                  98.3   63.4   36.7   23.5   12.7    6.3   
 2E  Marquette               83.7   53.2   33.1   16.1    7.7    3.3   
 3E  Kansas St.              78.4   42.9   20.8    8.4    3.3    1.1   
 4E  Tennessee               84.1   57.7   32.1   20.7   11.3    5.7   
 5E  Duke                    62.7   26.2   10.8    5.4    2.2    0.8   
 6E  Kentucky                57.3   31.3   14.9    5.9    2.2    0.8   
 7E  Michigan St.            52.6   23.0   11.5    4.3    1.5    0.5   
 8E  Memphis                 51.2   18.9    8.3    4.2    1.7    0.6   
 9E  Florida Atlantic        48.8   17.7    7.7    3.8    1.5    0.5   
10E  USC                     47.4   19.4    9.2    3.2    1.0    0.3   
11E  Providence              42.7   20.2    8.1    2.7    0.8    0.2   
12E  Oral Roberts            37.3   11.2    3.2    1.2    0.3    0.08  
13E  Louisiana               15.9    4.9    1.0    0.2    0.05   0.007 
14E  Montana St.             21.6    5.6    1.2    0.2    0.03   0.005 
15E  Vermont                 16.3    4.3    1.1    0.2    0.03   0.004 
16E  Texas Southern           1.1    0.04   0.001  <.001  <.001  <.001 
16E  Fairleigh Dickinson      0.6    0.01   <.001  <.001  <.001  <.001 
 1S  Alabama                 97.6   69.8   52.2   35.8   23.4   13.5   
 2S  Arizona                 87.0   56.4   34.0   16.7    9.0    4.1   
 3S  Baylor                  78.3   42.4   20.9    8.8    4.1    1.6   
 4S  Virginia                67.7   32.1    9.9    4.1    1.6    0.5   
 5S  San Diego St.           70.4   45.2   17.4    8.7    4.2    1.7   
 6S  Creighton               67.7   39.1   20.0    8.7    4.2    1.7   
 7S  Missouri                37.6   12.5    4.8    1.4    0.5    0.1   
 8S  Maryland                48.2   14.2    7.7    3.5    1.5    0.6   
 9S  West Virginia           51.8   15.7    8.7    4.1    1.8    0.7   
10S  Utah St.                62.4   28.0   14.1    5.6    2.5    0.9   
11S  N.C. State              32.3   13.2    4.4    1.2    0.4    0.10  
12S  Charleston              29.6   13.4    2.7    0.8    0.2    0.04  
13S  Furman                  32.3    9.3    1.4    0.3    0.08   0.01  
14S  UC Santa Barbara        21.7    5.3    1.1    0.2    0.04   0.005 
15S  Princeton               13.0    3.1    0.7    0.1    0.02   0.002 
16S  Texas A&M Corpus Chris   2.2    0.3    0.04   0.004  <.001  <.001 
16S  Southeast Missouri St.   0.3    0.01   <.001  <.001  <.001  <.001 
 1MW Houston                 93.8   71.6   56.7   38.6   23.5   15.0   
 2MW Texas                   88.8   60.4   39.8   21.3   11.0    6.0   
 3MW Xavier                  85.0   49.3   22.6    9.6    3.8    1.6   
 4MW Indiana                 63.4   37.1   12.2    5.2    1.8    0.7   
 5MW Miami FL                55.9   27.3    7.6    2.8    0.8    0.3   
 6MW Iowa St.                62.3   32.4   14.0    5.6    2.1    0.9   
 7MW Texas A&M               57.6   22.9   11.7    4.7    1.7    0.7   
 8MW Iowa                    45.3   11.4    5.9    2.2    0.7    0.2   
 9MW Auburn                  54.7   15.9    9.0    3.8    1.3    0.5   
10MW Penn St.                42.4   14.1    6.1    2.1    0.6    0.2   
11MW Mississippi St.         23.0    9.8    3.3    1.0    0.3    0.09  
11MW Pittsburgh              14.7    5.2    1.4    0.4    0.08   0.02  
12MW Drake                   44.1   19.1    4.6    1.5    0.4    0.10  
13MW Kent St.                36.6   16.5    3.7    1.1    0.3    0.06  
14MW Kennesaw St.            15.0    3.4    0.5    0.06   0.008  <.001 
15MW Colgate                 11.2    2.7    0.6    0.1    0.01   0.001 
16MW Northern Kentucky        6.2    1.1    0.2    0.03   0.003  <.001 
 1W  Kansas                  95.4   60.8   31.6   15.1    7.5    3.8   
 2W  UCLA                    94.6   71.1   46.5   29.0   17.3   10.6   
 3W  Gonzaga                 87.0   60.3   30.1   16.6    8.7    4.7   
 4W  Connecticut             80.1   51.1   31.0   16.4    9.0    5.1   
 5W  Saint Mary's            69.3   33.5   17.5    7.9    3.8    1.8   
 6W  TCU                     60.8   24.1    8.6    3.4    1.3    0.5   
 7W  Northwestern            44.6   11.4    4.1    1.3    0.4    0.1   
 8W  Arkansas                55.5   22.8    9.4    3.5    1.4    0.5   
 9W  Illinois                44.5   16.0    5.9    1.9    0.7    0.2   
10W  Boise St.               55.4   16.4    6.7    2.6    0.9    0.3   
11W  Nevada                  23.4    7.8    2.3    0.8    0.2    0.07  
11W  Arizona St.             15.8    4.4    1.1    0.3    0.08   0.02  
12W  VCU                     30.7    8.8    2.8    0.7    0.2    0.06  
13W  Iona                    19.9    6.6    1.9    0.4    0.1    0.03  
14W  Grand Canyon            13.0    3.5    0.5    0.09   0.01   0.002 
15W  UNC Asheville            5.4    1.0    0.1    0.01   0.002  <.001 
16W  Howard                   4.6    0.4    0.03   0.002  <.001  <.001 

I have previously acknowledged my appreciation for the preseason AP poll. Once the season starts, the poll becomes a clerical exercise that isn’t useful in the analytical realm, but before the games are played, humans and computers alike are trying to do the same thing: figure out which teams are the best. 

Get 60-65 experts together and you should have something more powerful than what a computer rating can provide. Wisdom of crowds and all. 

For that reason, whenever I have the typical 6-10 outliers in the top 25 to start the season, I usually assume the AP poll has the better ranking. Wisdom of crowds will generally beat my simple algorithm. 

But I never really tested how the preseason ratings do when it’s kenpom vs. the world, and instead of continuing to kiss the AP’s butt in the preseason, I wanted to know how good kenpom is when it disagrees with the computer. So I designed a study like so… (more…)

                             Rd2   Swt16  Elite8 Final4 Final  Champ
 1W  Gonzaga                 97.9   84.4   70.8   53.7   38.5   27.5   
 1S  Arizona                 97.1   76.3   47.2   29.1   18.1    8.9   
 1MW Kansas                  96.4   68.7   44.3   27.9   14.6    6.6   
 1E  Baylor                  94.5   71.9   43.3   25.2   11.6    6.4   
 2E  Kentucky                91.1   64.9   41.3   23.6   11.0    6.2   
 2MW Auburn                  91.5   68.8   47.9   26.3   13.2    5.6   
 3S  Tennessee               91.5   65.4   39.2   20.0   11.4    5.1   
 5S  Houston                 77.3   54.4   29.8   17.6   10.5    5.0   
 3W  Texas Tech              89.7   63.7   38.2   15.4    7.9    4.0   
 4E  UCLA                    88.4   58.2   31.4   17.2    7.4    3.8   
 2S  Villanova               89.4   58.8   32.3   15.7    8.5    3.6   
 5MW Iowa                    80.5   60.4   31.4   18.3    8.7    3.5   
 2W  Duke                    90.4   63.6   35.5   13.6    6.7    3.3   
 3E  Purdue                  89.0   50.5   24.1   11.4    4.2    1.9   
 6MW LSU                     62.4   40.2   18.2    7.6    2.8    0.9   
 6E  Texas                   55.5   27.9   12.2    5.2    1.8    0.7   
 5E  Saint Mary's            63.0   27.5   11.7    5.1    1.7    0.7   
 5W  Connecticut             70.6   39.1    9.9    4.4    1.7    0.7   
 4S  Illinois                68.8   28.2   10.8    4.7    2.1    0.7   
 4W  Arkansas                64.5   36.0    8.5    3.6    1.4    0.5   
 8MW San Diego St.           61.0   21.2   10.1    4.6    1.6    0.5   
10S  Loyola Chicago          54.3   22.2    9.0    3.1    1.2    0.4   
10E  San Francisco           54.8   19.1    8.6    3.2    0.9    0.3   
 3MW Wisconsin               75.5   34.8   13.1    4.5    1.3    0.3   
11E  Virginia Tech           44.5   19.9    7.6    2.8    0.8    0.3   
 6W  Alabama                 62.3   23.1    9.9    2.4    0.8    0.3   
 6S  Colorado St.            50.4   16.7    6.5    2.0    0.7    0.2   
 7S  Ohio St.                45.7   16.9    6.2    1.9    0.7    0.2   
 7E  Murray St.              45.2   14.1    5.7    1.9    0.5    0.2   
 8W  Boise St.               50.6    8.1    3.9    1.5    0.5    0.2   
11S  Michigan                49.6   16.0    6.2    1.8    0.6    0.2   
 7MW USC                     54.5   16.8    7.8    2.5    0.7    0.2   
 8E  North Carolina          55.3   16.1    5.9    2.0    0.5    0.1   
11MW Iowa St.                37.6   19.8    6.7    2.1    0.6    0.1   
 4MW Providence              55.9   18.9    5.7    2.1    0.6    0.1   
 9W  Memphis                 49.4    7.1    3.3    1.2    0.4    0.1   
10W  Davidson                49.8   17.1    6.1    1.3    0.4    0.1   
 9S  TCU                     49.9   11.7    4.0    1.3    0.4    0.1   
 7W  Michigan St.            50.2   17.2    6.1    1.3    0.4    0.1   
 8S  Seton Hall              50.1   11.5    3.9    1.3    0.4    0.09  
 9MW Creighton               39.0    9.7    3.6    1.2    0.3    0.06  
10MW Miami FL                45.5   12.3    5.1    1.4    0.3    0.06  
12S  UAB                     22.7    9.7    2.5    0.8    0.3    0.06  
 9E  Marquette               44.7   11.1    3.6    1.1    0.2    0.05  
13W  Vermont                 35.5   14.9    2.3    0.7    0.2    0.05  
12E  Indiana                 21.1    7.0    2.2    0.7    0.2    0.05  
11W  Notre Dame              22.9    7.0    2.4    0.5    0.1    0.04  
13MW South Dakota St.        44.1   12.3    3.0    0.9    0.2    0.03  
13S  Chattanooga             31.2    7.7    1.7    0.5    0.1    0.02  
12E  Wyoming                 15.9    4.8    1.3    0.4    0.08   0.02  
12MW Richmond                19.5    8.4    1.8    0.5    0.10   0.01  
12W  New Mexico St.          29.4    9.9    1.2    0.3    0.06   0.01  
11W  Rutgers                 14.8    3.8    1.1    0.2    0.04   0.008 
14MW Colgate                 24.5    5.3    0.9    0.1    0.01   0.001 
15MW Jacksonville St.         8.5    2.1    0.4    0.06   0.006  <.001 
14W  Montana St.             10.3    2.4    0.4    0.03   0.005  <.001 
13E  Akron                   11.6    2.5    0.4    0.05   0.004  <.001 
15E  Saint Peter's            8.9    1.9    0.3    0.04   0.004  <.001 
14S  Longwood                 8.5    1.8    0.3    0.03   0.004  <.001 
15S  Delaware                10.6    2.1    0.3    0.03   0.002  <.001 
15W  Cal St. Fullerton        9.6    2.2    0.3    0.02   0.002  <.001 
14E  Yale                    11.0    1.7    0.2    0.02   0.001  <.001 
16W  Georgia St.              2.1    0.4    0.07   0.009  <.001  <.001 
16E  Norfolk St.              5.5    0.9    0.1    0.009  <.001  <.001 
16MW Texas Southern           2.8    0.4    0.05   0.006  <.001  <.001 
16S  Wright St.               1.6    0.3    0.02   0.002  <.001  <.001 
16S  Bryant                   1.3    0.2    0.02   0.002  <.001  <.001 
16MW Texas A&M Corpus Chris   0.8    0.07   0.003  <.001  <.001  <.001 

Prior to last night, the last time Arkansas beat AP #1 was on February 12, 1984 against North Carolina. It was a very odd basketball game. You can find the whole thing on YouTube, although the sound and video are mismatched a bit. Here’s the box score.

Anyway, let’s talk about the weird things about this game. (more…)

By giving athletes a free year of eligibility last season, the NCAA made a great decision. Many teams had their seasons cancelled or severely limited by Covid-related issues. It certainly wouldn’t have been fair to take away a year of eligibility from someone when their season was only a few games, or in some cases, no games at all. 

A benefit to this for fans is that college basketball will be older than at any time since possibly the era of freshmen ineligibility in the 1970’s. It remains to be seen how that will play out but it doesn’t take a logical leap to assume that the product will be better.  (more…)

Here are the probabilities for the NCAA tournament based on the current ratings (no injury information is taken into account)… (more…)

Not sure if I’ll keep up with this or how accurate this will be given seeding irregularities and cancellations, but this will be the home for conference tourney forecasts… (These are complete now.) (more…)

[This is the first of a potentially recurring (though probably not) series called Is It Luck or Is it Skill? A look at various accomplishments with an eye towards whether it is due to luck or skill.]

I’ve been disappointed in recent seasons that even as free throw shooting has reached all-time highs, no team has made a credible run at 1984 Harvard’s record of 82.2% over a full season. The only real challenge in modern times was by 2011 Wisconsin, who entered what would be their final game against Butler in the Sweet 16 having made 423-of-514 attempts (82.3%). They made 13-of-19 against the Bulldogs to drop to 81.8%.

(more…)

After months of uncertainty, it’s looking like a college basketball season will exist in some form. The number of games played will be limited and some conferences may not play a non-conference slate. 

However, there is a misconception promoted by the media and the highest levels of the NCAA, that without non-conference games one cannot use objective data to select and seed teams for a postseason tournament. In reality, almost every other ratings system besides the NET will produce ratings this season, even for teams that do not play non-conference games, because it’s not a very difficult obstacle to overcome. 

College basketball has always been an outlier in the sports world in using opinions to influence who makes its post-season tournament. If subjective opinions are used exclusively, this season will be even worse. In the event of no or very few non-conference games, how does one compare a 10-10 Big East team to an 11-7 Pac-12 team to a 16-0 MAC team using the eye test? It is a bizarre exercise to consider.

At least in the past there’s been a historical standard that is loosely understood by the participants even if nobody can precisely explain it. This season there may be no standard. Just ten sets of eyes to make a guess as to which team is most deserving. Do wins and losses matter? Do style points matter? Nobody knows and that’s not fair to participants in the game, and thus the game itself. (more…)