While tables of numbers have their place, no fan should have to scroll to see their team’s rating. For that reason, I have been spending the past few weeks building a handy visualization called D-I Universe. It’s probably a little different than anything you have seen before, but I think it’s the best way to visualize my ratings and other stats. Not only do you not have to scroll (on some devices) to see the entirety of D-I, but you don’t have to click through to different pages to get some quick insights on teams and conferences.

The typical chart relating offensive and defensive efficiency uses the x-axis for offense and y-axis for defense. This is good enough as far as it goes, but it’s not always obvious which team is the best in terms of net rating on such a chart, and to me, that should be the most obvious thing. For instance here’s what the Big 12 looks like last season. (more…)

One of the more curious nuggets to come from the NCAA’s release of the NET was its decision to ignore scoring margin in overtime games. Any use of ‘artificial intelligence’ would have revealed that overtime scoring margin is just as useful for evaluating team strength as regular season scoring margin.

The simplest way to demonstrate this is to look at all overtime games where the teams met again during the season. (The other meetings need not be after the overtime game but nonetheless will be referred to as rematches for simplicity.) The correlation between scoring margin in the overtime game and scoring margin in the rematch (adjusted for home court) is 0.16. (more…)

Who likes it when players get into foul trouble? Well, maybe nobody, but it’s one of the most interesting strategic aspects of college basketball. While people have been thinking about ways to eliminate the individual limit on personal fouls, I’d feel very strongly about preserving the five-foul limit if officiating were perfect.

Mainly because I don’t like fouls and of all the deterrents to fouling, the personal foul limit is the most important. One can look at how the foul rates of reserves change when they become starters to get an idea of that. Almost surely, any softening of the individual foul limit will result in more fouls being committed. Which leads to more free throws and a slower-paced, less-entertaining game. (more…)

There are a few ways to analyze something but using the wisdom of the crowd is one my favorites. Of course, it depends on the particular crowd. Me, I’d prefer to use the crowd that bets money on things. Anyone can make predictions but history shows the best ones are made by people that put something tangible on the line.

Unfortunately, the types of things I really care about, like who is the best team at any given moment, are not something such money-risking people will tell us directly. Mike Beouy helpfully publishes betting market rankings based on game point-spreads that tries to assess this. But even then, if I want to know the third-best team in the Patriot League according to the crowd, I am out of luck. (more…)

Hey coaches! Need a hand filling out your schedule for the the 2018-19 season? I can’t play matchmaker but I can provide you a spreadsheet with a first cut of expected ratings for every team next season. These ratings use the same method that has produced the preseason ratings on my site in previous seasons. The projections are mostly based on the quality of returning players, incoming transfers and previous team performance, but there is more discussion about the ingredients here.

Data provided will be a list of all 351 D-I teams with overall ranking, and national rankings in offense, defense, and tempo. In addition, for those of you that are into gaming the RPI, teams are ranked by projected conference winning percentage so you can identify opponents which may rack up plenty of wins but be relatively easy to defeat. This data can assist you in finding the type and quality of opponent you want to fill out your schedule for the upcoming season and will not be shared with anyone outside the coaching community until October. Please send a message to ratings at kenpom dot com for more details and pricing.

                    Elite8 Final4 Final Champ
 1E  Villanova       72.5   48.5   31.1  23.3
 2MW Duke            81.1   54.0   28.8  20.4
 4W  Gonzaga         68.9   40.0   25.9  10.7
 2E  Purdue          61.1   26.3   13.7   8.7
 3W  Michigan        62.3   32.7   20.0   7.8
 5S  Kentucky        63.6   37.7   17.8   5.8
 1MW Kansas          53.9   22.2    8.5   4.8
 7S  Nevada          56.9   27.6   11.4   3.2
 5MW Clemson         46.1   17.5    6.1   3.2
 5E  West Virginia   27.5   12.4    5.1   2.8
 3E  Texas Tech      38.9   12.8    5.2   2.8
 7W  Texas A&M       37.7   15.1    7.3   1.9
11S  Loyola Chicago  43.1   18.2    6.4   1.5
 9W  Florida St.     31.1   12.2    5.6   1.3
 9S  Kansas St.      36.4   16.4    5.6   1.3
11MW Syracuse        18.9    6.3    1.4   0.5
                             Rd2   Swt16  Elite8 Final4 Final  Champ
 1E  Villanova               97.4   81.9   62.5   43.7   28.7   18.1   
 1S  Virginia                96.7   78.1   59.9   41.4   28.9   17.6   
 2MW Duke                    95.9   80.3   51.8   36.9   20.7   12.1   
 2S  Cincinnati              87.3   62.8   42.1   21.8   13.1    6.6   
 2E  Purdue                  94.3   68.7   45.8   22.7   12.4    6.6   
 2W  North Carolina          95.9   70.9   43.6   25.8   12.4    5.7   
 3MW Michigan St.            89.4   63.8   31.9   20.5   10.1    5.2   
 4W  Gonzaga                 82.6   53.1   33.4   18.6    8.9    4.0   
 1MW Kansas                  88.8   59.4   35.5   15.2    6.5    2.9   
 3W  Michigan                76.5   46.8   24.5   13.1    5.8    2.4   
 1W  Xavier                  97.9   63.5   31.3   15.2    6.2    2.3   
 3S  Tennessee               88.1   57.5   27.6   11.5    5.5    2.2   
 3E  Texas Tech              85.4   53.3   24.7    9.5    4.0    1.8   
 5W  Ohio St.                74.4   35.5   19.2    9.2    3.6    1.4   
 4MW Auburn                  84.1   47.6   24.4    8.8    3.1    1.2   
 5E  West Virginia           71.4   42.6   14.4    6.8    2.9    1.2   
 6W  Houston                 65.3   33.0   15.0    7.2    2.7    1.0   
 5MW Clemson                 65.7   35.6   17.8    6.5    2.4    0.9   
 5S  Kentucky                62.4   36.7   12.5    5.7    2.5    0.9   
 4E  Wichita St.             84.1   43.6   13.7    5.9    2.3    0.9   
 4S  Arizona                 71.8   37.5   12.2    5.3    2.2    0.8   
 6E  Florida                 63.8   30.5   11.8    3.7    1.3    0.4   
 7S  Nevada                  56.5   20.1    9.7    3.2    1.2    0.4   
 6MW TCU                     61.6   22.8    7.6    3.5    1.1    0.4   
10E  Butler                  55.8   18.2    8.6    2.6    0.9    0.3   
 8MW Seton Hall              55.5   22.5   10.4    3.1    0.9    0.3   
 7W  Texas A&M               61.9   19.9    8.4    3.2    1.0    0.3   
 8S  Creighton               56.0   12.4    5.8    2.2    0.8    0.2   
 6S  Miami FL                51.5   20.8    7.1    2.1    0.7    0.2   
 8E  Virginia Tech           57.1   11.1    4.7    1.7    0.5    0.2   
 8W  Missouri                49.1   17.9    6.5    2.2    0.6    0.2   
11S  Loyola Chicago          48.5   19.0    6.5    1.9    0.6    0.2   
 9W  Florida St.             50.9   18.4    6.5    2.2    0.7    0.2   
10S  Texas                   43.5   13.6    5.8    1.7    0.6    0.1   
12S  Davidson                37.6   17.1    4.3    1.5    0.5    0.1   
 7E  Arkansas                44.2   12.1    5.0    1.3    0.4    0.1   
 9S  Kansas St.              44.0    9.1    3.8    1.3    0.4    0.1   
 9MW North Carolina St.      44.5   15.8    6.2    1.5    0.3    0.09  
 7MW Rhode Island            49.8    9.9    3.0    1.1    0.3    0.07  
11W  San Diego St.           34.7   12.6    3.8    1.3    0.3    0.06  
12MW New Mexico St.          34.3   13.1    4.5    1.0    0.2    0.05  
10MW Oklahoma                50.2    9.0    2.6    0.9    0.2    0.05  
 9E  Alabama                 42.9    6.5    2.3    0.7    0.2    0.04  
11E  UCLA                    22.9    8.6    2.5    0.6    0.1    0.04  
11MW Arizona St.             20.5    5.7    1.4    0.5    0.1    0.04  
12E  Murray St.              28.6   11.0    2.1    0.6    0.1    0.03  
11MW Syracuse                17.9    5.1    1.2    0.4    0.09   0.02  
10W  Providence              38.1    8.6    2.6    0.8    0.2    0.02  
14W  Montana                 23.5    7.6    1.9    0.5    0.1    0.02  
13S  Buffalo                 28.2    8.7    1.4    0.3    0.07   0.01  
12W  South Dakota St.        25.6    6.3    1.8    0.4    0.08   0.007 
13W  UNC Greensboro          17.4    5.1    1.4    0.3    0.06   0.007 
11E  St. Bonaventure         13.4    4.1    1.0    0.2    0.03   0.004 
15S  Georgia St.             12.7    3.5    0.9    0.1    0.02   0.001 
14MW Bucknell                10.6    2.6    0.3    0.07   0.009  0.001 
14S  Wright St.              11.9    2.8    0.3    0.04   0.006  0.001 
13E  Marshall                15.9    2.8    0.2    0.02   0.004  0.001 
13MW College of Charleston   15.9    3.7    0.7    0.08   0.01   <.001 
14E  Stephen F. Austin       14.6    3.5    0.5    0.05   0.008  <.001 
16MW Penn                    11.2    2.3    0.4    0.03   0.006  <.001 
15MW Iona                     4.1    0.9    0.09   0.02   0.003  <.001 
15E  Cal St. Fullerton        5.7    1.0    0.1    0.009  <.001  <.001 
15W  Lipscomb                 4.1    0.7    0.07   0.006  <.001  <.001 
16S  UMBC                     3.3    0.4    0.04   0.006  <.001  <.001 
16E  Radford                  2.4    0.5    0.06   0.005  <.001  <.001 
16W  Texas Southern           1.5    0.09   0.004  <.001  <.001  <.001 
16W  North Carolina Central   0.6    0.04   0.002  <.001  <.001  <.001 
16E  LIU Brooklyn             0.2    0.01   <.001  <.001  <.001  <.001 

If you are looking my annual conference tournament probabilities, they are being posted to my twitter account.

Hey everyone. Now that the beginning-of-the-season rush has settled down, it’s a good time to go over some of the new features on the site.

The short version is:

– New and improved win probability graphs (with FanMatch updates)
– Team records
– Age and position information on the player pages (when available)
– Better position information

Now, the long version: (more…)

App news

Some of you who have used the kenpom app lately may have noticed that you are unable to log in. (You may be lucky for a while if you have an Android.) Without getting into the technical causes of this, it’s the symptom of a larger issue.

The talented people that originally designed the apps have moved on to better things and as the features on the site have grown, the functionality of app has lagged behind. Given the constant evolution of the site, it makes more sense to make the site itself more mobile-friendly. Going forward this is a better solution, allowing mobile users to more easily access all the features available on the site, especially as new ones are added. Therefore, the apps will no longer be supported.

This will likely not be a fast process but you should see improvements gradually rolled out during the season. Thanks for your understanding and patience.