I just wanted to update this post from last season regarding the predictive capabilities of the AP preseason poll in the 64+ team era. The tables below now include data from last season. The executive summary:
– There just isn’t much difference in the future of the typical preseason #15 vs. preseason #25. People can have really strong opinions about such differences, but they’re nearly meaningless at this point in the season.
– I’ve added the cases of winning a title for each preseason ranking. Just slightly over half (16 of the 29) of the champs have been ranked in the top three and four champs have been unranked to start the season.
– Kentucky was the first preseason #3 to miss the tournament, leaving #1 as the only bulletproof ranking to date.
– Historically, only the first- and second-ranked teams have been a one-seed at least half the time.
AP preseason rank vs. tournament seed
P r e a s e a s o n R a n k
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
1 20 14 11 9 12 3 8 2 3 2 6 3 1 0 0 1 3 1 2 0 2 2 0 2 0
2 5 8 7 5 6 10 4 10 5 5 1 3 6 1 3 1 0 2 2 1 2 1 0 1 5
S 3 3 3 4 6 5 3 3 1 2 5 3 3 2 5 2 2 1 1 1 4 0 4 3 3 1
e >3 1 3 6 8 4 12 13 15 16 14 17 15 15 16 18 21 17 20 17 17 13 14 15 10 13
e NT 0 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 3 3 2 5 5 7 6 3 8 5 7 7 7 2 6 8 5
d %1 71 50 39 32 43 11 29 7 11 7 21 11 4 0 0 4 11 4 7 0 7 7 0 7 0
%1-3 97 86 76 69 79 55 52 45 34 41 34 31 31 21 17 14 14 14 17 17 17 30 13 25 25
%NT 0 3 3 3 7 3 3 3 10 10 7 17 17 24 21 11 28 17 24 24 29 9 25 33 21
Champ 6 6 4 1 0 2 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 4
5 - s p o t a g g r e g a t e
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
%1 47 35 31 24 20 13 16 12 12 10 8 4 4 4 6 6 8 7 6 6 7
%1-3 81 73 66 60 53 46 41 37 34 32 27 23 19 16 15 15 16 19 19 20 22
%NT 3 4 4 4 6 6 7 10 12 15 17 18 20 20 20 21 24 21 22 24 24
%Champ 12 9 6 5 5 5 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 0
AP preseason rank vs. tournament seed by year
P r e a s e a s o n R a n k
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
2013 1 1 XX 2 4 8 1 2 4 3 8 6 6 3 9 7 6 5 XX 7 1 7 5 10 XX
2012 1 1 2 9 1 2 5 7 4 XX 8 3 2 10 4 XX XX 4 9 XX 6 3 7 12 2
2011 1 10 5 1 1 9 1 2 2 3 4 11 9 3 11 XX 8 7 12 6 XX 7 9 3 2
2010 1 5 8 1 2 XX 4 2 1 6 5 XX 8 11 XX 2 XX XX 9 3 XX 10 XX 7 11
2009 1 1 1 6 1 2 7 2 XX 4 5 2 2 9 6 6 XX 10 XX XX 4 XX 3 3 12
2008 1 1 1 1 2 3 2 5 8 4 6 9 2 7 2 9 10 6 9 11 XX 4 3 XX 11
2007 1 1 1 3 XX 2 1 2 2 8 XX 6 3 2 7 8 XX XX 10 XX 4 8 10 7 5
T 2006 1 2 1 6 1 6 XX 3 8 8 4 1 XX 6 10 5 4 XX 2 3 8 5 6 XX XX
o 2005 3 2 5 1 1 4 2 2 2 3 1 9 5 4 XX 8 9 5 10 XX 6 1 4 XX 3
u 2004 2 1 7 9 XX 4 5 5 6 2 1 3 5 XX 6 10 1 4 1 4 XX 3 XX 3 2
r 2003 1 2 1 1 2 3 2 10 7 3 8 5 6 XX 5 * 1 3 6 13 7 9 8 XX 13
n 2002 1 1 4 4 8 5 1 12 XX XX XX XX XX 8 XX 10 11 7 XX 4 XX 5 6 2 2
a 2001 2 1 1 1 3 2 4 1 8 XX 3 2 XX XX 7 6 4 5 6 7 XX 4 6 5 2
m 2000 5 2 1 7 3 8 2 5 1 1 8 6 1 5 8 4 4 2 4 9 5 3 6 10 6
e 1999 1 1 2 3 1 2 6 6 4 2 3 5 9 7 3 10 XX 4 4 9 8 6 12 XX XX
n 1998 1 1 1 1 6 6 3 2 2 6 4 2 XX 3 XX 3 7 8 XX 10 8 XX 4 7 XX
t 1997 3 1 1 3 2 2 4 1 XX 2 6 XX XX XX 11 10 3 6 4 4 5 1 8 XX 7
1996 1 2 3 4 2 1 1 6 5 4 2 6 5 XX 7 12 7 9 XX 6 2 9 6 1 12
Y 1995 2 2 2 1 5 1 3 XX 9 10 1 7 7 4 6 9 XX 5 2 3 4 3 XX 1 11
e 1994 1 3 1 2 3 5 3 4 4 6 4 5 5 XX 9 7 8 2 8 4 1 2 XX 10 XX
a 1993 1 2 3 1 1 2 1 10 3 2 4 XX 4 4 XX XX 11 XX 8 XX 2 * 3 9 10
r 1992 1 2 3 2 3 7 1 4 4 7 1 1 2 XX 9 6 5 5 4 6 9 9 7 XX 8
1991 1 1 2 3 1 2 4 2 8 1 4 6 2 6 XX 8 11 7 10 XX 11 5 XX 11 4
1990 1 5 2 3 3 2 8 5 4 3 3 4 7 8 11 1 10 XX XX 6 XX 4 XX XX 6
1989 2 1 3 4 1 2 4 2 1 4 1 XX 6 3 7 4 XX 5 XX 3
1988 3 1 2 2 2 4 6 6 3 7 5 1 5 6 2 8 1 5 1 5
1987 1 XX 1 3 1 7 6 5 8 2 8 8 2 3 2 3 11 1 10 XX
1986 2 3 2 2 1 1 4 4 2 8 1 3 4 11 3 6 6 4 5 7
1985 1 3 10 XX 1 3 1 2 5 5 4 7 3 4 9 9 XX 12 3 2