Here’s the log5 for the sweet sixteen using ratings as of Monday morning…

                    Elite8 Final4 Final  Champ  1 in…  Pvs
 1MW  Kentucky       88.5   72.3   46.6   36.4   3    33.8
 2W   Arizona        83.8   53.5   27.5   19.7   5    13.9
 1W   Wisconsin      72.1   34.4   15.1    9.8   10   10.5
 2S   Gonzaga        76.8   37.8   24.9    8.4   12    5.4
 1S   Duke           54.4   32.0   21.8    7.9   13    4.5
 5S   Utah           45.6   25.0   16.1    5.2   19    2.0
 3E   Oklahoma       55.4   33.7   13.6    3.4   29    1.4
 4E   Louisville     62.3   28.6    9.8    2.0   50    0.3
 7E   Michigan St.   44.6   24.9    8.8    1.9   53    0.2
 7MW  Wichita St.    50.8   12.1    3.7    1.7   59    0.7
 3MW  Notre Dame     49.2   11.4    3.4    1.5   65    1.1
 4W   North Carolina 27.9    7.7    2.0    0.8   121   0.7
 8E   N.C. State     37.7   12.8    3.1    0.4   233   0.03
 6W   Xavier         16.2    4.3    0.9    0.3   342   0.09
 5MW  West Virginia  11.5    4.2    0.9    0.3   355   0.2
11S   UCLA           23.2    5.3    2.0    0.3   363   0.03

Pvs = pre-tournament chance of winning