What follows is log5-style predictions of each team’s chance of advancing to each round in the tournament. The full list of 68 follows the regional analysis. [Corrected tables due to error in UNC’s rating -kp 3/12]

South

I agree with Luke. Kentucky has the easiest path for a one-seed. The reputations of Duke and Baylor are better (by quite a bit in Duke’s case) than their ability. I’m undecided as to whether to write the annual “(Insert favored team here) will not win the national title” column. But the odds are squarely on my side.

– At the bottom of the bracket, watch South Dakota State. They didn’t get much of a break in drawing Baylor, but it’s not an impossible situation for them. And should they pull off the upset they’ll have just shy of a 50/50 chance of getting to the Sweet 16.

                      Rd3  Swt16  Elite8 Final4 Final  Champ    1 in…
 1S  Kentucky        97.9   82.5   59.6   47.9   31.6   19.7    5
 5S  Wichita St.     77.2   46.0   17.8   11.8    5.7    2.6    39
 4S  Indiana         77.8   41.0   14.6    9.2    4.1    1.7    59
 3S  Baylor          73.5   51.1   31.8   10.9    4.5    1.7    60
 2S  Duke            77.8   53.1   30.1    9.5    3.6    1.2    80
 6S  UNLV            66.0   27.4   13.1    3.0    0.8    0.2    491
 8S  Iowa St.        55.0   10.1    3.6    1.7    0.5    0.1    726
 7S  Notre Dame      55.8   22.7    9.3    1.9    0.5    0.1    1008
 9S  Connecticut     45.0    7.1    2.2    0.9    0.2    0.06   1713
10S  Xavier          44.2   15.7    5.6    0.9    0.2    0.04   2806
14S  S. Dakota St.   26.5   12.1    4.6    0.8    0.2    0.03   3357
12S  VCU             22.8    7.3    1.3    0.5    0.1    0.02   4423
11S  Colorado        34.0    9.3    3.0    0.4    0.07   0.01   9571
13S  New Mexico St.  22.2    5.7    0.9    0.3    0.06   0.01   9762
15S  Lehigh          22.2    8.5    2.4    0.3    0.05   0.007  15289
16S  Western Kentucky 1.6    0.2    0.01   0.001 <0.001 <0.001  30136770
16S  Miss. Valley St. 0.4    0.03   0.001 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001  3063887043

West

- The committee played a cruel joke by matching up Memphis and St. Louis. The person I feel sorry for is Rick Majerus. Yes, the Billikens return the majority of their roster next season, but I have a hunch things came together this season in a way that won’t be duplicated again at SLU. With this draw, he has a one-in-eight shot at seeing the second weekend.

- ‘76 Indiana gets all the publicity, but the last one-loss national champ was 1974 N.C. State, predating Bob Knight’s perfect team. Good luck Murray State.

                      Rd3  Swt16  Elite8 Final4 Final  Champ    1 in…
 1W  Michigan St.    96.3   65.2   49.8   35.2   21.1   12.4    8
 2W  Missouri        96.2   64.4   46.7   23.1   11.3    5.3    19
 8W  Memphis         58.8   22.1   14.2    8.2    3.8    1.7    59
 5W  New Mexico      67.2   41.4   14.2    7.1    2.8    1.0    95
 3W  Marquette       69.6   49.2   20.7    7.5    2.7    0.9    108
 4W  Louisville      71.4   35.7   10.5    4.7    1.6    0.5    192
 7W  Florida         55.3   20.6   12.2    4.4    1.5    0.5    195
 9W  St. Louis       41.2   12.4    6.9    3.4    1.3    0.5    207
10W  Virginia        44.7   14.6    8.0    2.5    0.8    0.2    450
 6W  Murray St.      60.8   23.6    6.3    1.4    0.3    0.07   1516
12W  Long Beach St.  32.8   14.7    3.0    1.0    0.3    0.06   1655
14W  BYU             16.5    8.7    2.2    0.5    0.1    0.02   4978
14W  Iona            13.9    7.0    1.6    0.3    0.07   0.01   8346
13W  Davidson        28.6    8.3    1.2    0.3    0.06   0.009  10652
11W  Colorado St.    39.2   11.5    2.2    0.4    0.06   0.008  11790
16W  Long Island      3.7    0.3    0.03   0.003 <0.001 <0.001  8005351
15W  Norfolk St.      3.8    0.3    0.03   0.001 <0.001 <0.001  43273119

Midwest

- The bottom of the bracket is tremendously strong. Leave Belmont out of it - the 15 and 16 seeds are also relatively strong, especially considering the 16’s were selected for a play-in game.

- Because UNC and Kansas are so evenly matched, Kansas’s 34% chance to get to the Final Four is the most of any team in the region.

                      Rd3  Swt16  Elite8 Final4 Final  Champ    1 in…
 2MW Kansas          91.8   70.5   51.3   33.7   17.6    9.1    11
 1MW North Carolina  89.7   66.8   49.9   28.5   13.7    6.6    15
 3MW Georgetown      59.4   42.7   18.7    9.7    3.7    1.4    73
 4MW Michigan        70.2   40.1   15.4    5.7    1.7    0.5    208
14MW Belmont         40.6   25.9    9.2    4.0    1.2    0.3    286
10MW Purdue          60.6   18.5    9.1    3.9    1.1    0.3    307
 9MW Alabama         53.7   17.1    9.0    3.1    0.8    0.2    462
12MW California      36.7   19.8    7.3    2.6    0.7    0.2    519
 5MW Temple          49.6   23.9    7.6    2.3    0.5    0.1    809
 8MW Creighton       46.3   13.4    6.5    2.0    0.5    0.1    858
11MW N.C. State      53.8   17.7    4.6    1.5    0.3    0.07   1531
 7MW St. Mary's      39.4    9.1    3.6    1.2    0.3    0.05   1858
 6MW San Diego St.   46.2   13.7    3.2    0.9    0.2    0.03   3047
13MW Ohio            29.8   10.8    2.4    0.5    0.08   0.01   8408
12MW South Florida   13.7    5.3    1.3    0.3    0.05   0.008  11815
16MW Lamar            6.4    1.7    0.5    0.09   0.01   0.001  82369
15MW Detroit          8.2    1.9    0.4    0.07   0.007 <0.001  153501
16MW Vermont          3.9    0.9    0.2    0.03   0.003 <0.001  418595

East

- Are you off the Ohio State bandwagon yet? Me, neither! They’re the only non-one-seed to be the favorite in its region.

- The 3/14 game between Florida State and St. Bonaventure appears to be remarkably competitive on the surface.

-Next time somebody says the RPI doesn’t matter, you only need to respond with “Southern Miss”.

                      Rd3  Swt16  Elite8 Final4 Final  Champ    1 in…
 2E  Ohio St.        95.1   80.7   66.3   45.9   31.6   19.3    5
 1E  Syracuse        90.5   65.4   37.1   17.5    9.6    4.4    22
 4E  Wisconsin       87.1   58.6   34.0   16.2    9.0    4.2    24
 5E  Vanderbilt      67.2   29.0   13.4    4.9    2.1    0.8    131
 3E  Florida St.     66.2   36.6   10.4    3.9    1.5    0.5    218
 8E  Kansas St.      71.9   26.7   10.6    3.4    1.3    0.4    257
11E  Texas           52.3   26.9    6.9    2.3    0.8    0.2    450
 6E  Cincinnati      47.7   23.4    5.6    1.8    0.6    0.2    660
 7E  Gonzaga         56.0   10.9    5.2    1.7    0.5    0.1    733
10E  West Virginia   44.0    7.2    3.0    0.8    0.2    0.05   2069
12E  Harvard         32.8    9.3    2.8    0.7    0.2    0.04   2419
14E  St. Bonaventure 33.8   13.1    2.3    0.6    0.14   0.03   3758
 9E  Southern Miss   28.1    5.7    1.2    0.2    0.04   0.006  15989
13E  Montana         12.9    3.1    0.6    0.09   0.01   0.002  53868
16E  UNC Asheville    9.5    2.2    0.3    0.03   0.004 <0.001  280663
15E  Loyola MD        4.9    1.1    0.2    0.02   0.003 <0.001  390345

Here’s the full list of teams. Like last year, I’m struck by how similar the order of this list is to the order of my ratings, which suggests that irregularities in the draw don’t have as much impact on a team’s chances of winning the whole tournament as one might think.

                      Rd3  Swt16  Elite8 Final4 Final  Champ    1 in…
 1S  Kentucky        97.9   82.5   59.6   47.9   31.6   19.7    5
 2E  Ohio St.        95.1   80.7   66.3   45.9   31.6   19.3    5
 1W  Michigan St.    96.3   65.2   49.8   35.2   21.1   12.4    8
 2MW Kansas          91.8   70.5   51.3   33.7   17.6    9.1    11
 1MW North Carolina  89.7   66.8   49.9   28.5   13.7    6.6    15
 2W  Missouri        96.2   64.4   46.7   23.1   11.3    5.3    19
 1E  Syracuse        90.5   65.4   37.1   17.5    9.6    4.4    22
 4E  Wisconsin       87.1   58.6   34.0   16.2    9.0    4.2    24
 5S  Wichita St.     77.2   46.0   17.8   11.8    5.7    2.6    39
 4S  Indiana         77.8   41.0   14.6    9.2    4.1    1.7    59
 8W  Memphis         58.8   22.1   14.2    8.2    3.8    1.7    59
 3S  Baylor          73.5   51.1   31.8   10.9    4.5    1.7    60
 3MW Georgetown      59.4   42.7   18.7    9.7    3.7    1.4    73
 2S  Duke            77.8   53.1   30.1    9.5    3.6    1.2    80
 5W  New Mexico      67.2   41.4   14.2    7.1    2.8    1.0    95
 3W  Marquette       69.6   49.2   20.7    7.5    2.7    0.9    108
 5E  Vanderbilt      67.2   29.0   13.4    4.9    2.1    0.8    131
 4W  Louisville      71.4   35.7   10.5    4.7    1.6    0.5    192
 7W  Florida         55.3   20.6   12.2    4.4    1.5    0.5    195
 9W  St. Louis       41.2   12.4    6.9    3.4    1.3    0.5    207
 4MW Michigan        70.2   40.1   15.4    5.7    1.7    0.5    208
 3E  Florida St.     66.2   36.6   10.4    3.9    1.5    0.5    218
 8E  Kansas St.      71.9   26.7   10.6    3.4    1.3    0.4    257
14MW Belmont         40.6   25.9    9.2    4.0    1.2    0.3    286
10MW Purdue          60.6   18.5    9.1    3.9    1.1    0.3    307
10W  Virginia        44.7   14.6    8.0    2.5    0.8    0.2    450
11E  Texas           52.3   26.9    6.9    2.3    0.8    0.2    450
 9MW Alabama         53.7   17.1    9.0    3.1    0.8    0.2    462
 6S  UNLV            66.0   27.4   13.1    3.0    0.8    0.2    491
12MW California      36.7   19.8    7.3    2.6    0.7    0.2    519
 6E  Cincinnati      47.7   23.4    5.6    1.8    0.6    0.2    660
 8S  Iowa St.        55.0   10.1    3.6    1.7    0.5    0.1    726
 7E  Gonzaga         56.0   10.9    5.2    1.7    0.5    0.1    733
 5MW Temple          49.6   23.9    7.6    2.3    0.5    0.1    809
 8MW Creighton       46.3   13.4    6.5    2.0    0.5    0.1    858
 7S  Notre Dame      55.8   22.7    9.3    1.9    0.5    0.1    1008
 6W  Murray St.      60.8   23.6    6.3    1.4    0.3    0.07   1516
11MW N.C. State      53.8   17.7    4.6    1.5    0.3    0.07   1531
12W  Long Beach St.  32.8   14.7    3.0    1.0    0.3    0.06   1655
 9S  Connecticut     45.0    7.1    2.2    0.9    0.2    0.06   1713
 7MW St. Mary's      39.4    9.1    3.6    1.2    0.3    0.05   1858
10E  West Virginia   44.0    7.2    3.0    0.8    0.2    0.05   2069
12E  Harvard         32.8    9.3    2.8    0.7    0.2    0.04   2419
10S  Xavier          44.2   15.7    5.6    0.9    0.2    0.04   2806
 6MW San Diego St.   46.2   13.7    3.2    0.9    0.2    0.03   3047
14S  S. Dakota St.   26.5   12.1    4.6    0.8    0.2    0.03   3357
14E  St. Bonaventure 33.8   13.1    2.3    0.6    0.14   0.03   3758
12S  VCU             22.8    7.3    1.3    0.5    0.1    0.02   4423
14W  BYU             16.5    8.7    2.2    0.5    0.1    0.02   4978
14W  Iona            13.9    7.0    1.6    0.3    0.07   0.01   8346
13MW Ohio            29.8   10.8    2.4    0.5    0.08   0.01   8408
11S  Colorado        34.0    9.3    3.0    0.4    0.07   0.01   9571
13S  New Mexico St.  22.2    5.7    0.9    0.3    0.06   0.01   9762
13W  Davidson        28.6    8.3    1.2    0.3    0.06   0.009  10652
11W  Colorado St.    39.2   11.5    2.2    0.4    0.06   0.008  11790
12MW South Florida   13.7    5.3    1.3    0.3    0.05   0.008  11815
15S  Lehigh          22.2    8.5    2.4    0.3    0.05   0.007  15289
 9E  Southern Miss   28.1    5.7    1.2    0.2    0.04   0.006  15989
13E  Montana         12.9    3.1    0.6    0.09   0.01   0.002  53868
16MW Lamar            6.4    1.7    0.5    0.09   0.01   0.001  82369
15MW Detroit          8.2    1.9    0.4    0.07   0.007 <0.001  153501
16E  UNC Asheville    9.5    2.2    0.3    0.03   0.004 <0.001  280663
15E  Loyola MD        4.9    1.1    0.2    0.02   0.003 <0.001  390345
16MW Vermont          3.9    0.9    0.2    0.03   0.003 <0.001  418595
16W  Long Island      3.7    0.3    0.03   0.003 <0.001 <0.001  8005351
16S  Western Kentucky 1.6    0.2    0.01   0.001 <0.001 <0.001  30136770
15W  Norfolk St.      3.8    0.3    0.03   0.001 <0.001 <0.001  43273119
16S  Miss. Valley St. 0.4    0.03   0.001 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001  3063887043