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Monday, March 28, 2005
What If…
There was no better illustration of how random chance can affect a game than on Patrick Sparks' successful three-pointer to send the Kentucky/Michigan State game to overtime. There were three main variables that could have flipped the other way from what actually occurred.
1) What if Patrick Sparks' foot is a micron closer to the basket, and so it's only a two- point attempt?
2) What if Kelvin Torbert (or "Torbit" as Jim Nantz says) is called for a foul on Sparks?
3) What if Sparks' shot falls off the rim instead of through?
Then consider each of the eight possible combinations to the yes/no answers of the above questions. Only one of those - Sparks makes a three, foul is called - potentially results in a UK win. Nonetheless, these are the things that will keep me up at night if the Spartans win two more games.
And that is not a far-fetched notion. If MSU only commits 13 turnovers against UNC, as they did against Kentucky, they are going to score a lot of points.