Monday, March 19, 2007

Tracking the Doomsday Scenario

Here are the odds on our 16-team tourney courtesy of Mr. Picklesimer.

- The chance of all four #1’s making it to Atlanta (my Doomsday Scenario) is up to 9%. If that happens, I’m not sure how I would cope. It’s comforting to know it’s still a longshot.
- The “Cinderella’s Revenge” Final Four of UNLV, Southern Illinois, Vanderbilt, and Tennessee has a .0009% chance of happening.
- Thanks to the Xavier scare and the relative improvement of the other three teams in their region, Ohio State’s chance at the national title has actually decreased despite winning twice.
- Kansas has become the team with the best chance to win it all.
- The chance of Maarty hoisting the trophy is over 1% now, although that doesn’t account for fate which is clearly on Maarty’s side.

                     elite8  final4  finals   champ 
Midwest
1 Florida             78.83   62.56   32.83   17.00 
5 Butler              21.17   10.82    2.63    0.61 
3 Oregon              61.41   18.29    4.87    1.24 
7 UNLV                38.59    8.33    1.58    0.28 
       
West
1 Kansas              84.20   58.85   39.08   22.71 
4 Southern Illinois   15.80    4.88    1.47    0.32 
3 Pittsburgh          37.32   11.05    4.45    1.37 
2 UCLA                62.68   25.23   13.10    5.53 
      
East
1 North Carolina      84.26   56.69   37.08   22.21 
5 USC                 15.74    4.71    1.26    0.30 
6 Vanderbilt          20.41    3.76    0.88    0.18 
2 Georgetown          79.59   34.83   18.66    8.97 
      
South
1 Ohio St.            77.89   42.95   19.69    9.57 
5 Tennessee           22.11    5.76    1.18    0.27 
3 Texas A&M           59.11   32.41   14.42    6.81 
2 Memphis             40.89   18.88    6.82    2.64