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Saturday, March 26, 2005
The Value of a Missed Shot
It sounds kind of goofy, but there is some value in a missed shot. For instance, just compare it to a turnover. There is no offensive value in a turnover because the possession ends right there. But the same is not true for a missed shot, because there is a chance of the possession continuing by an offensive rebound.
Michigan State's missed shots were valuable last night. The Spartans are one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the country, and their 16 offensive rebounds were a big reason for their impressive offensive performance against Duke. Because Duke had 22 turnovers, much was made of the Spartans' defense, and rightfully so. But offensively, State scored 78 points in roughly 74 possessions for an offensive efficiency of 105. An impressive total against the nation's second stingiest defense on a points per possession basis.
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Pertaining to the first of today's two games, Louisville is 19-0 when they make at least ten three-pointers. Kudos to the CBS research folks for that one. West Virginia has only allowed that many bombs on three occasions this season, and never in the last 19 games. But this is partly due to WVU's games being on the slow side. About 36% of their opponents three-point attempts have been successful, which ranks a dismal 251st among D1 teams.