by Ken Pomeroy on Sunday, September 30, 2012
One of the more famous comebacks last season was Western Kentucky’s triumph over Mississippi Valley State in the NCAA tournament. Sadly, it just missed the list published here last week. But since it was probably viewed in real-time by a few of you, I thought it would be a way to show why the win probability model seems like it may be a bit too certain of itself in some cases.
After Cor-J Cox scored with 5:03 left, the Delta Devils led 53-37. At this point the Hilltoppers had just a smidge more than a 1% chance of winning*. Western Kentucky eventually won 59-58, becoming the only team last season to overcome a deficit of at least 15 points at the five-minute mark.