Thursday, January 06, 2005
Shelden Williams is not Emeka Okafor
But he's close.
Williams '05 Okafor '04 FG% 57.3 59.9 PPG 14.5 17.6 RPG 12.3 11.5 BPG 3.5 4.1
Williams has averaged one less minute per game than Okafor did, but fortunately Duke plays at a faster pace than UConn did, making this an apples-to-apples comparison in terms of possessions played per game.
Okafor was more skilled offensively, but Williams is not far behind. The difference in field goal percentage is offset by the fact that Williams gets to the line more, and is a better free throw shooter.
Williams '05 Okafor '04 FTA/FGA .56 .50 FT% 64.8 51.8 PPWS 1.21 1.19
PPWS is points per weighted shot, an idea created by John Hollinger and pushed further by Big Ten Wonk. If you do a google search for PPWS, you'll find Wonk's page describing PPWS sitting behing the Virginia Tech Department of Plant, Physiology, and Weed Science. So the stat hasn't gone mainstream yet. However, this weed identification guide proivided by Virginia Tech is indispensible.
PPWS is like an effective field goal percentage accounting for free throw production. So a Shelden Williams shot in 2005 is about as productive as an Emeka Okafor shot in 2004. Okafor took more shots in 2004, so his points per game was higher. And even with the increased role in the offense, Okafor turned the ball over less than Williams has this season. So there's no doubt Okafor has the edge in this area, but Williams ain't chopped liver.
Williams has an advantage in rebounds, an advantage that may decrease slightly as he faces the more accurate shooting teams of the ACC. But don't expect his average to go down much - it actually increased during conference play last year.
The disadvantage Williams has in blocks is a little misleading because teams took more shots against UConn last season than they are against Duke this season. UConn is one of the worst teams in the nation at forcing turnovers, allowing UConn's shot blockers more opportunities to do their thing. Williams blocks 9.8% of his opponents two point shot attempts when he's on the court. Okafor blocked 11.0% last season.
Shelden Williams isn't going to make any all-American teams this season. People outside of ACC country hardly know who he is. Yet there's a strong case to be made that he is the best all-around player in the ACC.