by Ken Pomeroy on Monday, September 26, 2011
Last season, North Carolina’s John Henson made 47.9% of his 142 free throw attempts. What is a reasonable expectation for Henson’s free throw percentage this season?
One way to make a prediction is to look at players with a similar free throw percentage in a single season and see how they performed in the following season. Since 2005, there have been 24 players that have shot at least 120 free throws in a season, were within four percentage points of Henson’s accuracy and took at least 100 free throws the following season.
This is that group sorted by the player’s free throw percentage in the following season: