Your 2012 kPOY: Draymond Green
04.04.12
With Monday night’s championship game in the books, the season-long race for the nation’s most-coveted statistically-based player of the year award has officially concluded. And it is my honor to announce that the 2012 kenpom.com Player of the Year is Michigan State senior Draymond Green. Against the fifth-most difficult defensive schedule in the country, Green posted a 107 offensive rating while using 29% of the Spartans’ possessions while he was on the floor, which included hitting 39% of his 3-point attempts and 47% of his 2-point attempts.
Green’s contributions, however, were spread across many categories. He was seventh in the nation in defensive rebounding percentage and finished in the top 400 nationally in steal rate and block rate, anchoring a defense that ranked third in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency. Offensively, Green was the best point-forward in the nation – he assisted on 24% of his teammates’ made field goals while he was on the court, the fourth-best assist rate among players standing 6-7 or taller.
Congratulations to Draymond Green, the 2012 kPOY. Green joins the 2011 winner, Jared Sullinger, in the pantheon of greats recognized as kPOY winners.
2012 kPOY final standings
1. Draymond Green, Michigan State, Sr. (kPOY rating = .564)
2. Thomas Robinson, Kansas, Jr. (.536)
3. Jared Sullinger, Ohio State, So. (.514)
4. Anthony Davis, Kentucky, Fr. (.479)
5. Will Barton, Memphis, So. (.451)
6. Jordan Taylor, Wisconsin, Sr. (.408)
7. Tyler Zeller, North Carolina, Sr. (.384)
8. Jae Crowder, Marquette, Sr. (.382)
9. Cody Zeller, Indiana, Fr. (.380)
10. Mike Scott, Virginia, Sr. (.379)
A look at assisted-on data
03.30.12
In today’s fast-paced society, it can be difficult to carve out time to break down video on your favorite team’s next opponent. One way to cheat the system and get a rough feel for offensive tendencies is to look at ‘assisted-on’ data, which indicates how many of a player’s made shots were assisted. Does a player primarily score off the pass or the dribble (or put-backs)? Does this change depending on where a player shoots? This kind of information can be derived from play-by-play data and I’ve done that for each team currently in New Orleans. The data below is in the from of assisted baskets/field goals made and there are a few interesting nuggets to be mined from reviewing this sort of data.
Ohio State
Name 2Pt(Short) 2Pt(Long) 3-Pointers J Sullinger 67/116 .578 31/91 .341 14/16 .875 W Buford 31/59 .525 35/81 .432 46/59 .780 D Thomas 59/99 .596 40/92 .435 48/48 1.000 A Craft 8/58 .138 2/32 .062 14/21 .667 L Smith 18/39 .462 1/18 .056 27/29 .931 A Williams 12/16 .750 0/3 .000 0/0 .000 S Thompson 19/22 .864 6/11 .545 1/1 1.000 E Ravenel 24/31 .774 10/15 .667 0/0 .000
You’ll see in the data that almost every non-point guard is assisted on over 90% of their made three-pointers. (Notice Deshaun Thomas hasn’t had a single unassisted three-pointer this season.) This makes William Buford’s 78% assist rate on threes unusual. Also, Buford has made 81 long 2’s compared to 59 short 2’s. He’s the Buckeyes mid-range guy. So cut Buford some slack when talking about his shooting struggles, because he was never going to make a high percentage of 2’s given his role. And making “only” 36% of his threes this season isn’t bad at all considering how many shots he takes off the dribble.
Kansas
Name 2Pt(Short) 2Pt(Long) 3-Pointers T Robinson 100/163 .613 35/73 .479 7/7 1.000 T Taylor 29/85 .341 5/71 .070 38/56 .679 J Withey 63/79 .797 18/28 .643 0/0 .000 E Johnson 22/48 .458 5/20 .250 58/63 .921 T Releford 33/61 .541 8/28 .286 23/24 .958 K Young 22/33 .667 8/10 .800 3/3 1.000 C Teahan 2/10 .200 3/7 .429 45/46 .978
Tyshawn Taylor has been assisted on “only” 68% of his made threes. That’s actually the second-lowest figure (to Aaron Craft - who takes far fewer threes) of any regular still playing. Basically, he’s the most likely player to make a three off the dribble which is unusual considering that 34% of his short 2’s are assisted – a high figure for a point guard. Down low, put-backs are not Jeff Withey’s specialty. He is assisted on short 2’s like few other post players.
Louisville
Name 2Pt(Short) 2Pt(Long) 3-Pointers C Behanan 63/107 .589 9/29 .310 6/6 1.000 G Dieng 64/88 .727 20/52 .385 1/1 1.000 P Siva 14/75 .187 3/26 .115 14/16 .875 K Kuric 38/53 .717 12/34 .353 70/75 .933 C Smith 23/39 .590 1/14 .071 56/66 .848 R Smith 26/63 .413 6/41 .146 37/41 .902 J Swopshire 14/26 .538 7/14 .500 5/5 1.000
We have to use some caution when comparing shot selection across teams because one scorekeepers’s 2-pt jumper is another’s lay-up. Within-team comparisons are fair game, though, and this is something I wouldn’t have known before looking at the data – Gorgui Dieng, Louisville’s 6-10 rim protector, is much more likely to take a mid-range shot than Chane Behanan. Attempts aren’t shown here, but Dieng has attempted over twice as many long twos as Behanan this season. Dieng has played more minutes, but not enough to explain that large of a difference, which is made more unusual considering Behanan has taken 34 3’s to Dieng’s two. Statistically, Dieng is not a particularly gifted offensive rebounder, but part of that is because he’s not near the hoop as much as the smaller Behanan.
Kentucky
Name 2Pt(Short) 2Pt(Long) 3-Pointers T Jones 52/118 .441 4/36 .111 15/16 .938 A Davis 91/148 .615 22/51 .431 3/3 1.000 M Kidd-Gilchrist 43/93 .462 14/46 .304 12/12 1.000 M Teague 10/82 .122 2/30 .067 21/24 .875 D Lamb 20/48 .417 10/43 .233 71/73 .973 D Miller 9/34 .265 7/49 .143 47/54 .870 K Wiltjer 7/15 .467 9/20 .450 34/34 1.000 E Vargas 3/6 .500 3/6 .500 0/0 .000
It’s not surprising to see that Marquis Teague and Darius Miller are both rarely assisted on mid-range shots. As the Wildcats’ primary ballhandlers, they’re the ones giving out assists rather than receiving them. But oddly, Terrence Jones also has point guard like assisted-on numbers from mid-range. Not coincidentally, he’s also a particularly poor mid-range shooter, making just 28% of his shots this season. By the way, I’ve been struck by the tough two’s Miller has made in the tournament, and season-long data bears out that he’s one of the best mid-range shooters left. He’s made 49% of his long 2’s, far and away the best on the team and second only to Deshaun Thomas (51%) among Final Four participants that have taken at least 80 mid-range shots this season. Note here that making half of your mid-range shots is a very difficult goal to achieve.
The untrained eye: Mercer vs. Utah State
03.28.12
Mercer beat Utah State 70-67 in a 66-possession game Wednesday night. I was there. This is what I saw. (Really, this is heavier on the random thoughts than game recap.)
Travel and Altitude Redux
There’s nothing like travel and altitude to enhance one’s road struggles. So serious credit goes to Mercer for overcoming a 2000-mile trip from Macon, Georgia (elevation 400’) to Logan, Utah (elevation 4500’) in addition to the lively crowd. Mercer built an early lead and had to deal with the customary home-team run after halftime. Late in the second half, Utah State scored on eight consecutive possessions to turn a 48-41 deficit into a 55-49 lead. There were no weary legs here, though, as Mercer responded by scoring on the game’s last ten possessions – going 4-of-4 from the field and 10-of-11 from the free throw line - to pull off the victory.
Atlantic Sun = CAA (almost)
The CIT title game provided a reminder that the A-Sun was really good this year. From 2006 to 2008 the league was ranked 29th, 29th, and 28th, respectively, out of 31 conferences. Mercer’s win last night pushed the league into 14th this season, looking down on the Horizon and MAC, and within arms length of the CAA. Belmont heads to the Ohio Valley next season, so this may be the heyday for the A-Sun. While we’re here, let’s give it up for USC Upstate. I had them at 286 in the preseason and they finished 131, going 21-13 including narrow defeats on the road against South Carolina and Dayton, and the memorable home win against Belmont where they reversed a 16-point halftime deficit in front of a near-sellout crowd of 781. I have my eye on you, Eddie Payne.
That’s a lot of home games
Utah State played its 22nd game at the Dee Glen Smith Spectrum last night. Since 2000, only Memphis in ‘04-‘05 played more games (23) in one building. The Tigers had the benefit of playing their conference tournament at home that season and played four games in it before losing in infamous fashion in the title game. That sent them to the NIT where they were rewarded with three more home games. Footnote 1: Oregon played 24 home games last season, but those were split across two arenas. Footnote 2: The Aggies’ five home losses were as many as in the previous seven seasons combined.