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    Pac-12 log5

    by Ken Pomeroy on Tuesday, March 12, 2013


    March 13-16. All games at Las Vegas, Nev.

    All-kenpom: Dwight Powell, Stanford (kPOY); Allen Crabbe, Cal; Spencer Dinwiddie, Colorado; Brock Motum, Washington State; Mark Lyons, Arizona.

    Like the Mountain West, the Pac-12 featured a lot of parity at the top of the league. Arizona was a half-step ahead of everyone else, but there’s not much statistical difference between UCLA, Oregon, Cal, Stanford, and Colorado. Even the bottom of the conference was much more respectable than it was last season, further reducing the top teams’ margin for error in this event. The seeding of the Pac-12 tourney indicates that Arizona is the fourth-best team, and you’re not going to get a lot of people singing their praises after going 12-6 in conference play. But even though they lost four of their last eight, they’re still probably the best team in the league. Just look around at the other contenders and you’ll find as many, if not more, weaknesses as you see with Arizona. While the overall quality of play is still disappointing for a power conference, the compressed nature of the league figures to make for an entertaining debut in Vegas.

    Numbers listed are the probabilities of a team advancing to each round. Unfamiliar with log5? Here’s more than you want to know.

                   Qtrs Semis Final Champ
     4 Arizona      100  67.9  43.3  30.1
     3 Oregon       100  65.1  37.0  15.5
     2 California   100  69.6  37.8  15.5
     1 UCLA         100  55.5  23.9  14.0
     8 Stanford    66.2  33.1  14.2   8.3
     5 Colorado    72.2  26.9  13.8   8.0
     6 Washington  50.9  18.0   7.6   2.2
    11 Wash. St.   49.1  17.0   7.0   2.0
     7 USC         57.3  18.9   7.0   1.8
     9 Arizona St. 33.8  11.4   3.2   1.4
    10 Utah        42.7  11.5   3.5   0.7
    12 Oregon St.  27.8   5.2   1.5   0.5