Comments on 2012 freshman projections: Part 3
by Drew Cannon on Thursday, July 12, 2012
[Drew is in the midst of a three-part series to critique his statistical projections of the ESPNU Top 100 incoming freshmen. Last Thursday, he handled prospects headed to the ACC or Big East. Monday, he tackled the Big Ten and Big 12. Today, he concludes with the Pac-12, SEC, and everybody else.]
Pac-12
Arizona
Kaleb Tarczewski, #4, 7’0 C, St. Mark’s (Claremont, NH)ORtg %Pos OR/DR% A% TO% B/S% FC/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA% Projection 101 21 11/18 6 20 8/2 4.7 53 57% 52% 12% 3%Grant Jerrett, #9, 6’10 PF, La Verne (CA) Lutheran
G/Min ORtg %Pos OR/DR% A% TO% B/S% FC/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA% Projection 101 20 12/17 8 18 6/2 4.5 47 58% 50% 22% 9% Oakland Soldiers 21/463 109 30 11/17 4 19 5/1 6.0 71 71% 53% 22% 4%Brandon Ashley, #16, 6’8 PF, Findlay Prep (Oakland, CA)
ORtg %Pos OR/DR% A% TO% B/S% FC/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA% Projection 103 21 11/16 8 18 4/2 4.3 45 64% 50% 25% 12%Gabe York, #65, 6’1 SG, Orange (CA) Lutheran
ORtg %Pos OR/DR% A% TO% B/S% FC/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA% Projection 97 19 5/10 14 19 2/2 3.5 28 64% 45% 29% 42%
York, in all likelihood, will be backing up Mark Lyons and Nick Johnson. (Solomon Hill, while we’re here, had an outstanding Kevin Durant Skills Academy a week or so back.) I can’t imagine getting all three five-star bigs on the floor at the same time, so my money’s on Tarczewski and Ashley starting – Jerrett’s lagging a bit behind them in physical development. I’d adjust Jerrett’s assist and (all) shooting numbers up a couple notches, and his possession percentage down a bit. He’s more skilled and less physically ready than the projection system thinks. Tarczewski’s numbers look good. Ashley is more ball-dominant and more foul-prone than the projections show – I’d expect him to use at least 23-24 percent of the Wildcats’ possessions, and use them less efficiently than the projections expect. And Ashley’s no threat to take that many three-pointers.