by Ken Pomeroy on Thursday, February 24, 2011
The current record holder for three-point accuracy in a season is Glenn Tropf who made 52 of his 82 attempts (63.4%) for Holy Cross in the 1988 season. Arizona’s Derrick Williams has made 27 of his 40 attempts so far this season, which is good for 67.5%. Of all the things Williams has done this season, that is the most amazing to me. It’s not that Williams is a great outside shooter, because he’s probably not “great”. But clearly, he’s good and nearly all of his 40 shots have been high-quality looks. Williams’ sparkling numbers have resulted from a combination of good touch and good fortune.
This got me curious as to the chances of Williams - potential first round-pick for reasons that don’t have much to do with his ability to make 20-foot jump shots – breaking the three-point accuracy record. The only way to investigate this is to run the rest of Arizona’s season over and over. I did it one million times! And now I am exhausted.
First, let’s look at the assumptions I used…