NCAA tourney log5 analysis
03.11.12
What follows is log5-style predictions of each team’s chance of advancing to each round in the tournament. The full list of 68 follows the regional analysis. [Corrected tables due to error in UNC’s rating -kp 3/12]
South
- I agree with Luke. Kentucky has the easiest path for a one-seed. The reputations of Duke and Baylor are better (by quite a bit in Duke’s case) than their ability. I’m undecided as to whether to write the annual “(Insert favored team here) will not win the national title” column. But the odds are squarely on my side.
- At the bottom of the bracket, watch South Dakota State. They didn’t get much of a break in drawing Baylor, but it’s not an impossible situation for them. And should they pull off the upset they’ll have just shy of a 50/50 chance of getting to the Sweet 16.
Rd3 Swt16 Elite8 Final4 Final Champ 1 in… 1S Kentucky 97.9 82.5 59.6 47.9 31.6 19.7 5 5S Wichita St. 77.2 46.0 17.8 11.8 5.7 2.6 39 4S Indiana 77.8 41.0 14.6 9.2 4.1 1.7 59 3S Baylor 73.5 51.1 31.8 10.9 4.5 1.7 60 2S Duke 77.8 53.1 30.1 9.5 3.6 1.2 80 6S UNLV 66.0 27.4 13.1 3.0 0.8 0.2 491 8S Iowa St. 55.0 10.1 3.6 1.7 0.5 0.1 726 7S Notre Dame 55.8 22.7 9.3 1.9 0.5 0.1 1008 9S Connecticut 45.0 7.1 2.2 0.9 0.2 0.06 1713 10S Xavier 44.2 15.7 5.6 0.9 0.2 0.04 2806 14S S. Dakota St. 26.5 12.1 4.6 0.8 0.2 0.03 3357 12S VCU 22.8 7.3 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.02 4423 11S Colorado 34.0 9.3 3.0 0.4 0.07 0.01 9571 13S New Mexico St. 22.2 5.7 0.9 0.3 0.06 0.01 9762 15S Lehigh 22.2 8.5 2.4 0.3 0.05 0.007 15289 16S Western Kentucky 1.6 0.2 0.01 0.001 <0.001 <0.001 30136770 16S Miss. Valley St. 0.4 0.03 0.001 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 3063887043West
- The committee played a cruel joke by matching up Memphis and St. Louis. The person I feel sorry for is Rick Majerus. Yes, the Billikens return the majority of their roster next season, but I have a hunch things came together this season in a way that won’t be duplicated again at SLU. With this draw, he has a one-in-eight shot at seeing the second weekend.
- ‘76 Indiana gets all the publicity, but the last one-loss national champ was 1974 N.C. State, predating Bob Knight’s perfect team. Good luck Murray State.
Rd3 Swt16 Elite8 Final4 Final Champ 1 in… 1W Michigan St. 96.3 65.2 49.8 35.2 21.1 12.4 8 2W Missouri 96.2 64.4 46.7 23.1 11.3 5.3 19 8W Memphis 58.8 22.1 14.2 8.2 3.8 1.7 59 5W New Mexico 67.2 41.4 14.2 7.1 2.8 1.0 95 3W Marquette 69.6 49.2 20.7 7.5 2.7 0.9 108 4W Louisville 71.4 35.7 10.5 4.7 1.6 0.5 192 7W Florida 55.3 20.6 12.2 4.4 1.5 0.5 195 9W St. Louis 41.2 12.4 6.9 3.4 1.3 0.5 207 10W Virginia 44.7 14.6 8.0 2.5 0.8 0.2 450 6W Murray St. 60.8 23.6 6.3 1.4 0.3 0.07 1516 12W Long Beach St. 32.8 14.7 3.0 1.0 0.3 0.06 1655 14W BYU 16.5 8.7 2.2 0.5 0.1 0.02 4978 14W Iona 13.9 7.0 1.6 0.3 0.07 0.01 8346 13W Davidson 28.6 8.3 1.2 0.3 0.06 0.009 10652 11W Colorado St. 39.2 11.5 2.2 0.4 0.06 0.008 11790 16W Long Island 3.7 0.3 0.03 0.003 <0.001 <0.001 8005351 15W Norfolk St. 3.8 0.3 0.03 0.001 <0.001 <0.001 43273119Midwest
- The bottom of the bracket is tremendously strong. Leave Belmont out of it - the 15 and 16 seeds are also relatively strong, especially considering the 16’s were selected for a play-in game.
- Because UNC and Kansas are so evenly matched, Kansas’s 34% chance to get to the Final Four is the most of any team in the region.
Rd3 Swt16 Elite8 Final4 Final Champ 1 in… 2MW Kansas 91.8 70.5 51.3 33.7 17.6 9.1 11 1MW North Carolina 89.7 66.8 49.9 28.5 13.7 6.6 15 3MW Georgetown 59.4 42.7 18.7 9.7 3.7 1.4 73 4MW Michigan 70.2 40.1 15.4 5.7 1.7 0.5 208 14MW Belmont 40.6 25.9 9.2 4.0 1.2 0.3 286 10MW Purdue 60.6 18.5 9.1 3.9 1.1 0.3 307 9MW Alabama 53.7 17.1 9.0 3.1 0.8 0.2 462 12MW California 36.7 19.8 7.3 2.6 0.7 0.2 519 5MW Temple 49.6 23.9 7.6 2.3 0.5 0.1 809 8MW Creighton 46.3 13.4 6.5 2.0 0.5 0.1 858 11MW N.C. State 53.8 17.7 4.6 1.5 0.3 0.07 1531 7MW St. Mary's 39.4 9.1 3.6 1.2 0.3 0.05 1858 6MW San Diego St. 46.2 13.7 3.2 0.9 0.2 0.03 3047 13MW Ohio 29.8 10.8 2.4 0.5 0.08 0.01 8408 12MW South Florida 13.7 5.3 1.3 0.3 0.05 0.008 11815 16MW Lamar 6.4 1.7 0.5 0.09 0.01 0.001 82369 15MW Detroit 8.2 1.9 0.4 0.07 0.007 <0.001 153501 16MW Vermont 3.9 0.9 0.2 0.03 0.003 <0.001 418595East
- Are you off the Ohio State bandwagon yet? Me, neither! They’re the only non-one-seed to be the favorite in its region.
- The 3/14 game between Florida State and St. Bonaventure appears to be remarkably competitive on the surface.
-Next time somebody says the RPI doesn’t matter, you only need to respond with “Southern Miss”.
Rd3 Swt16 Elite8 Final4 Final Champ 1 in… 2E Ohio St. 95.1 80.7 66.3 45.9 31.6 19.3 5 1E Syracuse 90.5 65.4 37.1 17.5 9.6 4.4 22 4E Wisconsin 87.1 58.6 34.0 16.2 9.0 4.2 24 5E Vanderbilt 67.2 29.0 13.4 4.9 2.1 0.8 131 3E Florida St. 66.2 36.6 10.4 3.9 1.5 0.5 218 8E Kansas St. 71.9 26.7 10.6 3.4 1.3 0.4 257 11E Texas 52.3 26.9 6.9 2.3 0.8 0.2 450 6E Cincinnati 47.7 23.4 5.6 1.8 0.6 0.2 660 7E Gonzaga 56.0 10.9 5.2 1.7 0.5 0.1 733 10E West Virginia 44.0 7.2 3.0 0.8 0.2 0.05 2069 12E Harvard 32.8 9.3 2.8 0.7 0.2 0.04 2419 14E St. Bonaventure 33.8 13.1 2.3 0.6 0.14 0.03 3758 9E Southern Miss 28.1 5.7 1.2 0.2 0.04 0.006 15989 13E Montana 12.9 3.1 0.6 0.09 0.01 0.002 53868 16E UNC Asheville 9.5 2.2 0.3 0.03 0.004 <0.001 280663 15E Loyola MD 4.9 1.1 0.2 0.02 0.003 <0.001 390345Here’s the full list of teams. Like last year, I’m struck by how similar the order of this list is to the order of my ratings, which suggests that irregularities in the draw don’t have as much impact on a team’s chances of winning the whole tournament as one might think.
Rd3 Swt16 Elite8 Final4 Final Champ 1 in… 1S Kentucky 97.9 82.5 59.6 47.9 31.6 19.7 5 2E Ohio St. 95.1 80.7 66.3 45.9 31.6 19.3 5 1W Michigan St. 96.3 65.2 49.8 35.2 21.1 12.4 8 2MW Kansas 91.8 70.5 51.3 33.7 17.6 9.1 11 1MW North Carolina 89.7 66.8 49.9 28.5 13.7 6.6 15 2W Missouri 96.2 64.4 46.7 23.1 11.3 5.3 19 1E Syracuse 90.5 65.4 37.1 17.5 9.6 4.4 22 4E Wisconsin 87.1 58.6 34.0 16.2 9.0 4.2 24 5S Wichita St. 77.2 46.0 17.8 11.8 5.7 2.6 39 4S Indiana 77.8 41.0 14.6 9.2 4.1 1.7 59 8W Memphis 58.8 22.1 14.2 8.2 3.8 1.7 59 3S Baylor 73.5 51.1 31.8 10.9 4.5 1.7 60 3MW Georgetown 59.4 42.7 18.7 9.7 3.7 1.4 73 2S Duke 77.8 53.1 30.1 9.5 3.6 1.2 80 5W New Mexico 67.2 41.4 14.2 7.1 2.8 1.0 95 3W Marquette 69.6 49.2 20.7 7.5 2.7 0.9 108 5E Vanderbilt 67.2 29.0 13.4 4.9 2.1 0.8 131 4W Louisville 71.4 35.7 10.5 4.7 1.6 0.5 192 7W Florida 55.3 20.6 12.2 4.4 1.5 0.5 195 9W St. Louis 41.2 12.4 6.9 3.4 1.3 0.5 207 4MW Michigan 70.2 40.1 15.4 5.7 1.7 0.5 208 3E Florida St. 66.2 36.6 10.4 3.9 1.5 0.5 218 8E Kansas St. 71.9 26.7 10.6 3.4 1.3 0.4 257 14MW Belmont 40.6 25.9 9.2 4.0 1.2 0.3 286 10MW Purdue 60.6 18.5 9.1 3.9 1.1 0.3 307 10W Virginia 44.7 14.6 8.0 2.5 0.8 0.2 450 11E Texas 52.3 26.9 6.9 2.3 0.8 0.2 450 9MW Alabama 53.7 17.1 9.0 3.1 0.8 0.2 462 6S UNLV 66.0 27.4 13.1 3.0 0.8 0.2 491 12MW California 36.7 19.8 7.3 2.6 0.7 0.2 519 6E Cincinnati 47.7 23.4 5.6 1.8 0.6 0.2 660 8S Iowa St. 55.0 10.1 3.6 1.7 0.5 0.1 726 7E Gonzaga 56.0 10.9 5.2 1.7 0.5 0.1 733 5MW Temple 49.6 23.9 7.6 2.3 0.5 0.1 809 8MW Creighton 46.3 13.4 6.5 2.0 0.5 0.1 858 7S Notre Dame 55.8 22.7 9.3 1.9 0.5 0.1 1008 6W Murray St. 60.8 23.6 6.3 1.4 0.3 0.07 1516 11MW N.C. State 53.8 17.7 4.6 1.5 0.3 0.07 1531 12W Long Beach St. 32.8 14.7 3.0 1.0 0.3 0.06 1655 9S Connecticut 45.0 7.1 2.2 0.9 0.2 0.06 1713 7MW St. Mary's 39.4 9.1 3.6 1.2 0.3 0.05 1858 10E West Virginia 44.0 7.2 3.0 0.8 0.2 0.05 2069 12E Harvard 32.8 9.3 2.8 0.7 0.2 0.04 2419 10S Xavier 44.2 15.7 5.6 0.9 0.2 0.04 2806 6MW San Diego St. 46.2 13.7 3.2 0.9 0.2 0.03 3047 14S S. Dakota St. 26.5 12.1 4.6 0.8 0.2 0.03 3357 14E St. Bonaventure 33.8 13.1 2.3 0.6 0.14 0.03 3758 12S VCU 22.8 7.3 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.02 4423 14W BYU 16.5 8.7 2.2 0.5 0.1 0.02 4978 14W Iona 13.9 7.0 1.6 0.3 0.07 0.01 8346 13MW Ohio 29.8 10.8 2.4 0.5 0.08 0.01 8408 11S Colorado 34.0 9.3 3.0 0.4 0.07 0.01 9571 13S New Mexico St. 22.2 5.7 0.9 0.3 0.06 0.01 9762 13W Davidson 28.6 8.3 1.2 0.3 0.06 0.009 10652 11W Colorado St. 39.2 11.5 2.2 0.4 0.06 0.008 11790 12MW South Florida 13.7 5.3 1.3 0.3 0.05 0.008 11815 15S Lehigh 22.2 8.5 2.4 0.3 0.05 0.007 15289 9E Southern Miss 28.1 5.7 1.2 0.2 0.04 0.006 15989 13E Montana 12.9 3.1 0.6 0.09 0.01 0.002 53868 16MW Lamar 6.4 1.7 0.5 0.09 0.01 0.001 82369 15MW Detroit 8.2 1.9 0.4 0.07 0.007 <0.001 153501 16E UNC Asheville 9.5 2.2 0.3 0.03 0.004 <0.001 280663 15E Loyola MD 4.9 1.1 0.2 0.02 0.003 <0.001 390345 16MW Vermont 3.9 0.9 0.2 0.03 0.003 <0.001 418595 16W Long Island 3.7 0.3 0.03 0.003 <0.001 <0.001 8005351 16S Western Kentucky 1.6 0.2 0.01 0.001 <0.001 <0.001 30136770 15W Norfolk St. 3.8 0.3 0.03 0.001 <0.001 <0.001 43273119 16S Miss. Valley St. 0.4 0.03 0.001 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 3063887043
Contest winner
Congratulations to Tommy Lemoine of Manchester, New Hampshire who earned himself a lifetime subscription to my site by virtue of winning the Mountain West tourney contest. Tommy is a recent Michigan State grad and here was his winning scorecard:
| Question | Pick | Result |
| What will be San Diego State’s largest lead against Boise State? | 12 | 11 |
| How many points will Hank Thorns score against Colorado State? | 17 | 19 |
| How many points will Michael Lyons score against New Mexico? | 17 | 13 |
| How many offensive rebounds will UNLV get against Wyoming? | 7 | 6 |
| How many points will Colorado State score in the second half against San Diego State? | 30 | 30 |
| How many rebounds will Drew Gordon get against UNLV? | 11 | 13 |
| How many three-point attempts will New Mexico and San Diego State combine to take? | 36 | 37 |
The total error for the seven questions was 11, which was good enough to beat out six other contestants by one point. Although after missing Michael Lyons’ point total by four in the third game of the tourney, it appeared Mr. Lemoine was done for. Even he admitted he thought he was doomed at this point. In an interview, Lemoine described the emotional roller-coaster of the next three nights…
I thought I was surely out of the running when Michael Lyons scored 17 points on Thursday, giving me an absolute difference of 7 through only 3 games. Things became a little less bleak when UNLV grabbed 6 offensive rebounds that night. When I was dead-on with Colorado St.’s 30-point second half against SDSU (I couldn’t believe it—that was almost entirely a ‘gut’ pick), I figured I had a shot.
As for the Championship: the ESPN box score originally had each team pegged for 18 three-point attempts when last night’s game went final. I thought they’d called Tapley’s garbage-time shot a two—I even convinced myself his foot was on the line—but a few minutes later they credited it a three, bringing the combined attempts up to 37. Indeed, I thought that lone, stat-padding shot attempt might cost me the contest. I’m grateful and happy it did not.
Mr. Lemoine also admitted, as all great champions do, that he “got very lucky”. There was some luck involved of course - while he would have won whether Tapley’s late shot was ruled a three or a two, Lemoine benefited from an inconsequential garbage-time three-pointer by Colorado State’s Dorian Green at the final horn of the fifth game that allowed Lemoine to nail the Rams’ second-half total on the number. (No joke, the handshake line had started before Green released his shot.)
Nonetheless, Mr. Lemoine put himself in position to win with good picks and now owns a subscription to my web site through December 31, 2099, and as he puts it, “looks forward to a lifetime of tempo-free statistics.”
Congrats to Tommy and thanks to all the people that entered the contest. I hope to do more of this in the future.
Log5 vs. seeds 2012
Conference tourney season ends today, seemingly hours after it started. And that means it’s time to look back on the successes and failures of the system. The chart below attempts to summarize the performance of the log5 method vs. the seeds. For instance, 12 teams won a title that were deemed the most likely to win its conference tournament by log5, while ten teams won a title that were the top seed. It wasn’t quite the convincing victory that log5 scored last season, and there’s still some business to take care of today. To this point, though, only a single one-seed (Long Island U.) won its tourney while not being favored by log5. Last season there were none.