Sweet 16 log5
03.18.12
Hot off the presses, we have the log5 analysis for the 16 remaining teams. These teams comprised 81% of the title-winning chances before the tourney started, up from 69% last season, indicating that this year’s group was more expected than last season’s. (Pre-tournament chances are indicated in the ‘Prev’ column.) Michigan State received nearly 6% of the 19% the losers left behind, primarily due to surviving the gauntlet that was their round-of-32 game.
This obviously doesn’t account for injuries, but I have a feeling UNC’s chances aren’t that far off. They have the enormous benefit of getting to play the weakest team remaining in the field in their first game. Beating Ohio is not certain, of course, but just getting to play them is the best-case scenario if you’re trying to figure out how to play basketball without a point guard.
(Corrected Final/Champ odds on 3/21 to account for proper FInal Four matchups. -kp)
Elite8 Final4 Final Champ Prev 1 in… 1S Kentucky 71.7 56.9 36.2 21.5 19.7 5 2E Ohio St. 82.9 52.7 34.1 20.1 19.3 5 1W Michigan St 76.4 54.8 31.6 17.7 12.4 6 2MW Kansas 80.4 46.3 21.3 10.2 9.1 10 1MW N. Carolina 84.9 45.5 19.8 9.0 6.6 11 4E Wisconsin 52.5 23.0 12.2 5.7 4.2 18 1E Syracuse 47.5 19.8 10.0 4.5 4.4 22 4S Indiana 28.3 17.2 7.2 2.7 0.5 37 3S Baylor 72.6 21.9 8.2 2.7 1.7 37 7W Florida 52.9 19.0 7.2 2.5 1.7 40 3W Marquette 47.1 15.8 5.6 1.8 0.9 55 4W Louisville 23.6 10.4 3.3 0.9 0.5 106 6E Cincinnati 17.1 4.5 1.3 0.3 0.2 321 11MW N.C. State 19.6 5.3 1.0 0.2 0.1 531 10S Xavier 27.4 4.0 0.8 0.1 0.04 835 13MW Ohio 15.1 2.9 0.4 0.05 0.01 1965
Round of 32 log5
03.17.12
Swt16 Elite8 Final4 Final Champ 1 in… 1S Kentucky 81.5 60.0 48.5 31.9 19.3 5 2E Ohio St. 81.2 65.8 44.4 29.9 18.6 5 1W Michigan St 71.1 52.7 39.0 24.0 14.1 7 2MW Kansas 73.6 49.5 31.9 16.3 8.6 12 1MW N. Carolina 76.6 62.1 34.2 16.3 8.0 13 4E Wisconsin 64.5 38.5 19.1 10.8 5.5 18 1E Syracuse 67.8 34.6 15.9 8.4 3.9 25 4S Indiana 73.2 27.4 18.2 8.6 3.6 28 3S Baylor 76.8 57.0 20.2 8.4 3.0 33 7W Florida 92.8 52.0 20.1 8.1 2.9 34 3MW Georgetown 71.7 32.0 17.2 6.9 2.8 35 3W Marquette 67.8 35.8 13.7 5.5 2.0 51 5W New Mexico 54.2 18.0 9.4 3.7 1.3 75 9W St. Louis 28.9 15.6 8.5 3.5 1.3 76 5E Vanderbilt 35.5 16.1 5.9 2.5 0.9 106 4W Louisville 45.8 13.6 6.5 2.4 0.8 132 3E Florida St. 53.9 14.0 4.9 1.7 0.5 185 10MW Purdue 26.4 11.4 4.8 1.4 0.4 246 8E Kansas St. 32.2 10.8 3.3 1.2 0.4 282 8S Iowa St. 18.5 7.4 3.8 1.2 0.3 301 6E Cincinnati 46.1 10.8 3.4 1.1 0.3 324 7E Gonzaga 18.8 9.3 3.1 1.0 0.3 325 8MW Creighton 23.4 13.4 3.8 0.9 0.2 475 12MW S. Florida 57.1 15.2 3.8 0.8 0.2 594 6W Murray St. 32.2 11.5 2.7 0.7 0.1 680 10S Xavier 55.9 19.1 3.5 0.8 0.1 706 12S VCU 26.8 5.2 2.2 0.6 0.1 798 11MW N.C. State 28.3 7.1 2.4 0.5 0.1 850 15S Lehigh 44.1 13.0 2.0 0.4 0.06 1813 13MW Ohio 42.9 9.3 1.9 0.3 0.05 1856 11S Colorado 23.2 10.9 1.7 0.3 0.05 2156 15W Norfolk St. 7.2 0.7 0.04 0.002 0.0001 1033538
Rick Majerus: awesome coach
03.15.12
It was high comedy on Sunday when the brackets revealed that Memphis and Saint Louis were forced to play each other in the round of 64. I haven’t done the research, but it would be hard for any previous round-of-64 game to top this one in the overall strength of the competing teams.
Once my laughter died down, I began to truly feel sorry for Saint Louis. It has been a pretty amazing year for the Billikens, accompanied by no recognition whatsoever. For some context, let’s review the Rick Majerus era at SLU.
AdjO AdjD
Rank Rank
2012 36 10
2011 242 47
2010 190 29
2009 192 117
2008 194 103
It took Majerus a couple of seasons to successfully implement his trademark defense that does everything in its power to take away fast breaks and three-point attempts. However, the offense showed no signs of life during his first four seasons. What changed this season? Absolutely nothing in terms of the roster. OK, they did get point-guard Kwamain Mitchell back following his one-year exile from the team. But Mitchell played big-time minutes on the ’09 and ’10 teams that also struggled to score.
It’s amazing that the same roster that produced an inept offense last season en route to a 12-19 record can earn a nine-seed this season, and skill-wise, be considered under-seeded. What’s more is that not a single Billiken has a profile on DraftExpress. It’s not just that there isn’t a future draft pick on this team, it’s that there isn’t a player that NBA folks are even considering for employment. And yet, somehow it’s played like one of the best 25 or so teams in the nation.
For whatever reason, Majerus failed to earn get consideration for national coach of the year. Not only that, he didn’t even win his own conference’s award. And now, with one last shot to get some notoriety through a good performance in the tournament, he has to face the toughest eight-seed ever put in the draw. (OK, 1991 Georgetown might have a case.)
Naturally, I have sympathy for Memphis, too. They aren’t getting a break here, either. But Memphis has recently been in the national title game, and they are likely to have very successful seasons in the near future. Can the same be said for SLU? Considering the spontaneous combustion that occurred this season, I’m skeptical that Rick Majerus will preside over another team this good before he retires. While the Billikens return most of their roster next season, they do lose their most dependable offensive player in Brian Conklin.
Majerus’ stubborn devotion to a system that isn’t terribly exciting to watch has been maddening in recent years. A methodical system is one thing, but when it leads to a bunch of losses, it’s just boring. I attended his fourth home game as SLU’s head coach and it was a depressing sight lacking any entertainment value whatsoever. SLU and Long Beach combined to score 100 points in front of 17,000 empty seats. The Billikens were seven games away from scoring 20 points against George Washington, setting the shot-clock era record for fewest points in a game. Repeat that for four consecutive seasons.
But I can admire someone who is exceedingly stubborn, too. To muddle through four awful seasons and not change how you do business despite all sorts of back-seat driving impresses me in some sense. Take whomever you want for coach of the year, but it’s hard to believe there was a better coaching job this season than what occurred at Saint Louis.
Whether or not he deserved more recognition this season, there is no denying Rick Majerus can coach the game of basketball. For example, he once took a team whose third-best player was Hanno Mottola and beat a team whose third-best player was Miles Simon by 25 to earn a berth in the Final Four. Majerus might need less talent to win that any other coach in the country. I’m being presumptuous but perhaps the way things have unfolded this season is exactly how Rick Majerus wants it, because he has the opportunity to prove exactly that. On Friday, he’ll take a team whose third-best player is some dude named Cody Ellis against a team whose third-best player is Tarik Black, a projected future first-round pick.
If his team wins, Majerus can show the world yet again that he doesn’t need five-star talent to win, and if his team loses, that’s exactly what you’d expect of a team whose third-best player is Cody Ellis. Either way, it makes Friday night’s game the most compelling game of the round of 64* for me. And it tells me there’s no need to feel sorry for Saint Louis, after all.
P.S. You want to know the Majerus basketball philosophy? These three promotional videos for EA Sports produced nearly a decade ago will get you up to speed in 90 seconds. Methodically wait for a good shot on offense, and prevent catch-and-shoots on defense. Voila! Now you know what to expect Friday.
*With the exception of whichever game features the 16-seed winning, of course.