Rules Experiment Report: ‘05 Edition
01.25.05
Today, I bring you an exciting presentation about rules. (For those of you looking for hype on the Illinois/Wisconsin game, you should know the drill by now. Big Ten Wonk will not only have coverage, but coverage of the coverage, along with a steady diet of acronyms, all wrapped in a college-level vocabulary.)
The data is in, and in what should not be a surprise to anyone, the rules experiments for the exempt games of the 2005 season were once again a failure. The numbers for games through December 31st, which include all exempt games for this season, speak for themselves:
Exempt Regular
Games Games
(169) (1438)
Poss/40 min 69.1 69.5
Points/Poss .969 .986
Points/40 min 133.9 137.1
3P FG% 33.7 34.8
2P FG% 47.3 48.0
3PA/FGA (%) 31.7 32.8
Fouls/Poss .272 .266
As a review, the experimental rules for this season included an expanded lane, a three point line at 20' 6", and a silver-dollar sized "charge-free" arc under each hoop. The results are similar to what happened with the experimental rules for exempt games during the 2004 season. The disparity in offensive production between the exempt and regular games is less than last season. But that makes sense, because the larger international lane was used for the exempt games last season.
I expanded on the reasons for a reduction in offensive production under the experimental rules in this post over the summer. It's simple really, the expanded lane forces offensive players further away from the basket, thereby producing a reduction in two point field goal percentage. Extending the three point arc naturally reduces three point accuracy. In addition, the game slows down as the offense works longer because it is more difficult to find an acceptable shot.
Putting this in the context of the current trend in college hoops of declining pace and scoring (2005 is even slower and more low-scoring than 2004), and it makes it obvious that implementation of these rules would be foolish.
Bracket Bustin’
01.23.05
A week from now, we will know the matchups in the third annual Bracket Buster, where mid-majors pool their collective RPI chips to bargain for an extra bid or two into the big dance.
The Bracket Buster takes place on Saturday, February 19th, with ESPN2 televising the best games in a marathon. Starting times are every two hours from noon until midnight eastern, with the exception of 10 pm. The midnight game is on ESPN. From my semi-handy Bracket Buster page (it would be nice to have the teams on that page sorted by RPI Rank, but my limited database skills lack the time to pull this off), here are the top rated teams heading into Monday's action, with record and RPI Rank in parenthesis:
Home Away Pacific (14-2, 30) Southern Illinois (15-4, 14) Kent State (13-6, 35) Vermont (13-3, 17) Nevada (14-4, 37) Wichita State (13-2, 22) Rice (10-5, 45) Western Michigan (13-4, 32) Ball State (9-5, 50) Bradley (11-5, 41) Northern Iowa (13-5, 56) Arkansas Little Rock (12-6, 49) Miami Ohio (10-5, 73) Texas El Paso (16-3, 57) Bowling Green (11-4, 79) Buffalo (10-5, 68)
So now I'll play ESPN program director, or whatever it's called. Here are the matchups I would choose (all times eastern):
The must-see games
8 pm - Vermont at Nevada. The most attractive team among the away group is Vermont, simply because they have the most recognizable player, Taylor Coppenrath, the second leading scorer in the nation.
The marquee player on the home side is Nick Fazekas of Nevada. A Vermont at Nevada game would provide a compelling matchup that might suck in even the staunchest of mid-major naysayers. The travel would be hell on UVM, but ESPN wasn't afraid to send East Tennessee State to Fresno last year (where the Bucs won, by the way). It's all in the name of prime-time TV.
Midnight - Wichita State at Pacific or Hawaii. If Pacific were the opponent, it would pit the only two-loss (for now) teams in the field. The Shockers have four toss-up road games between now and the BB, so their record might not be so sparkling on the 19th. Pacific should be no worse than 19-4. Hawaii (10-5, 92) could snag the midnight slot for the second year in a row with a strong showing in their two-game homestand this Thursday/Saturday.
The rest
Noon: let's kick things off with Southern Illinois at Kent State. SIU is like Tulsa was in the 90s - it doesn't matter who coaches them, they just keep on rolling.
2 pm: Bradley at Rice. Two teams lingering in the background of their respective conferences, but both are capable of receiving at-large notice with February runs.
4 pm: UTEP at Northern Iowa. Hmmm. Probably too much MVC for ESPN's taste.
6 pm: Arkansas Little Rock at Ball State. I'm counting on a rocking atmosphere at Worthen Arena to provide the proper lead-in to my prime-time blockbuster.
As a final note, it shouldn't be forgotten that under the new RPI, road teams have a lot more to gain with the road-enhanced weighting. Games where the road team wins will have much more impact on the RPI than if the home team wins.
Turnover Percentage
01.21.05
As many of you noticed, there was a problem with the games database for most of the day yesterday. While I'd prefer the data I provide be absolutely correct, the snafu did allow me to realize the interesting cross section of people that check the site. I got e-mails from many fans, nearly-famous people, and a "Damn, I can't believe that guy has time to check the site. Let alone care about its accuracy." Thanks for keeping me in line. Surprisingly, there was not an f-bomb in the bunch. Give yourselves a round of applause.
The Stat o' the Week is "Turnover Percentage." Once again it's a simple one...
Turnovers / Possessions
It's the percentage of offensive possessions that end in a turnover. I have this yet-to-be-confirmed theory that the offense owns the bulk of the responsibility in the turnover. To be overly simplistic, there are two ways a turnover occurs - a giveaway or a takeaway. In most games, it seems that the giveaways outnumber the takeaways. I don't know what that ratio is, but I'd guess the offense is around 55-60% responsible for its ability to get a shot off.
One thing to note about turnover percentage is that teams that don't turn it over much tend to be slower paced. The Temple's (#1 TO%), Illinois' (#2), and Air Force's (#3) of the college basketball planet are willing to hold onto the ball longer to get the easiest shot possible because they know they can hold it longer. And this is reflected in their offensive efficiency (adjusted #65, #2, and #30, respectively). Butler, Drexel, Vermont, and IUPUI round out the top 7 in TO% and all have efficient, deliberate offenses.
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