Log5 Part 2: Where have all the upsets gone?
02.29.12
The second installment of log5-style conference tournament predictions features little in the way of surprises. To this this point, we’ve yet to see anything worse than a two-seed favored to win. The following seven conferences start their postseason festivities between tonight and Friday.
Patriot League
“It’s all about the home court”
Feb. 29, Mar. 3, 7
All games at higher seed
Semis Final Champ 1 Bucknell 96.7 83.5 52.1 2 Lehigh 97.0 81.0 40.0 3 American 87.4 17.8 5.5 4 Holy Cross 67.5 11.3 1.7 5 Lafayette 32.5 4.8 0.6 6 Army 12.6 0.9 0.09 7 Colgate 3.0 0.3 0.01 8 Navy 3.3 0.4 0.01
Lehigh grades out as the best team in the Patriot 8, but the built-in home court advantage for every game of the tournament gives top-seeded Bucknell enough of a push to be the favorite.
America East
“Maine will win this someday”
Mar. 1, 3, 4, 10
First three rounds at Hartford, final game at higher seed
Qtrs Semis Final Champ 1 Stony Brook 100 96.2 74.4 53.1 2 Vermont 100 82.2 56.6 27.2 3 Boston U. 100 74.2 31.6 11.7 4 Albany 100 56.3 17.5 5.2 5 New Hampshire 100 43.7 7.6 1.3 7 Maine 100 17.8 6.0 1.0 6 Hartford 100 25.8 5.7 0.5 8 UMBC 57.9 2.5 0.4 0.02 9 Binghamton 42.1 1.3 0.1 0.006
Vermont’s flub against Binghamton last week cost them the one-seed which was especially painful for their chances of winning the AE tournament. The path through the 7 and 3/6 seeds is significantly more difficult than the 8/9 and 4/5 seeds.
Missouri Valley Conference
“Home of the five-way tiebreaker”
Mar. 1-4
All games at St. Louis, MO
Qtrs Semis Final Champ 1 Wichita St. 100 92.7 79.7 64.3 2 Creighton 100 81.8 55.9 18.8 5 Northern Iowa 100 55.8 10.7 4.8 6 Missouri St. 100 54.3 21.4 4.6 3 Evansville 100 45.7 16.3 3.1 4 Illinois St. 100 44.2 7.1 2.8 7 Drake 78.3 16.7 6.2 0.9 8 Indiana St. 70.8 6.2 2.3 0.7 9 S. Illinois 29.2 1.1 0.2 0.03 10 Bradley 21.7 1.5 0.2 0.01
It’s true, seeds 3 through 7 finished with identical 9-9 records in conference play. And if Indiana State didn’t blow a four-point lead with three minutes to go against Creighton in its season finale, it could have been a six-way tie. There’s still a healthy 17% chance that neither Wichita State nor Creighton wins this thing and thus steals an at-large bid from somebody.
Northeast Conference
“We’re the fairest of them all”
Mar. 1, 4, 7
All games at higher seed
Semis Final Champ 2 Wagner 85.5 66.4 41.4 1 Long Island 75.9 50.0 26.9 3 Robert Morris 87.8 37.1 18.6 5 Quinnipiac 53.4 23.5 8.3 4 St. Francis NY 46.6 13.5 3.0 7 Central Conn. 14.5 4.2 1.1 8 Sacred Heart 24.1 3.1 0.5 6 Monmouth 12.2 2.2 0.4
Hey, finally a conference where the one-seed isn’t the favorite. The NEC plays each game at the higher seed and re-seeds the semis for good measure. Still, Wagner is able to overcome this structure and as the league’s best team, it remains the favorite.
Colonial Athletic Association
“Why did we invite Towson, again?”
Mar. 2-5
All games at Richmond, VA
Qtrs Semis Final Champ 2 VCU 100 89.7 65.8 38.7 1 Drexel 100 89.8 60.2 34.0 4 Old Dominion 100 69.9 29.7 12.3 3 George Mason 100 53.2 16.7 6.2 6 Georgia St. 75.9 40.4 13.7 5.8 5 Delaware 94.3 30.0 8.1 2.0 7 Northeastern 73.3 9.0 2.6 0.5 11 Hofstra 24.1 6.4 1.0 0.2 8 James Madison 54.0 5.9 1.2 0.2 9 UNC Wilmington 46.0 4.3 0.8 0.09 10 William & Mary 26.7 1.3 0.2 0.02 12 Towson 5.7 0.2 0.004 0.0001
VCU gets half of home-court advantage here with the games being played at the nearby Richmond Coliseum. That breaks what would be a virtual tie between the Rams and the streaking Dragons for top-odds honors here. By the way, the CAA has been all about defense this season - its games ranked first among conferences in steal percentage and second in block percentage.
Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference
“Not just at a neutral site - in a neutral state”
Mar. 2-5
All games at Springfield, MA
Qtrs Semis Final Champ 1 Iona 100 91.3 64.3 46.7 3 Manhattan 100 78.0 48.1 18.9 4 Fairfield 100 75.5 29.2 17.2 2 Loyola MD 100 78.2 39.2 13.2 5 Rider 100 24.5 4.6 1.5 6 Siena 100 22.0 7.2 1.2 7 Niagara 75.6 19.3 5.2 0.8 8 Marist 77.0 7.9 1.9 0.5 10 Canisius 24.4 2.4 0.3 0.02 9 St. Peter's 23.0 0.8 0.07 0.006
The MAAC chances are nicely fragmented across the top four seeds providing an opportunity for a little mayhem. It’s worth mentioning that Iona averages 1.18 points per possession in a conference where the average was 1.01 in conference games. Fortunately for the rest of MAACachusetts, the Gaels’ defense has some leaks.
Southern Conference
“Showing people how silly divisional seeding can be”
Mar. 2-5
All games at Asheville, NC
Qtrs Semis Final Champ 1S Davidson 100 89.3 79.9 63.8 4S C. Of Charleston 75.3 59.7 37.3 13.3 2S Wofford 100 76.2 41.8 12.7 3S Georgia Southern 55.9 32.2 5.4 2.0 2N Elon 100 45.1 6.0 1.9 5S Furman 57.3 6.8 3.6 1.3 1N UNC Greensboro 100 26.6 8.5 1.3 3N W. Carolina 70.0 19.5 6.6 1.1 6N Chattanooga 44.1 22.8 3.2 1.1 5N Appalachian St. 24.7 13.7 5.0 0.9 4N Samford 42.7 3.9 1.8 0.6 6S The Citadel 30.0 4.3 0.8 0.07
There is no worse idea in tournament bracketing than division-based seeding. College of Charleston would be a five-seed if the SoCon seeded by conference record. But because the Socon imposes an arbitrary divsion structure on its proceedings, the Cougars are what amounts to a seven-seed. The top five seeds from the South division each have a better chance of winning this event than the top seed from the North, UNCG.
Conference champ toteboard
02.28.12
For record-keeping purposes, here’s a list of the predictions for regular-season conference champions based on the simulator’s work at the end of December. Whoever gets the top seed in their conference tournament is considered the conference champ.
So far, Valpo is the biggest longshot to accomplish this at 4%, but Michigan State is likely going to cash in a 1% chance in the Big Ten simulation that was blown up by Wisconsin. And hey, TCU is still technically alive for a one-seed in the Mountain West, where they didn’t win or tie a single pre-conference simulation. I’ll update this as events warrant.
Murray State (93%)
Belmont (93%)
Harvard (89%)
Iona (75%)
Kentucky (73%)
Long Beach State (69%)
Wisconsin (66%) [Michigan State (1%)]
Lehigh (63%) [Bucknell (33%)]
Saint Louis (62%) [Temple (18%)]
UNC Asheville (62%)
Davidson (61%)
Syracuse (61%)
North Carolina (59%)
VCU (58%) [Drexel (8%)]
Wichita State (58%)
Middle Tennessee (55%)
UNLV (55%) [San Diego St. (10%)]
Utah Valley (55%)
Ohio (54%) [Akron (7%)]
Cal (53%) [Washington (4%)]
Lamar (53%) [Texas Arlington (24%)]
Morgan State (52%)
Oral Roberts (51%)
Mississippi Valley State (51%)
Memphis (50%)
Cleveland State (50%) [Valpo (4%)]
Robert Morris (46%) [LIU (7%)]
BYU (39%) [St. Mary’s (28%)]
Weber State (37%) [Montana (31%)]
Vermont (35%) [Stony Brook (21%)]
Kansas (33%)
New Mexico State (32%) [Nevada (22%)]
Expected correct: 18.4
Actual Correct: 17
Log 5 season: winning is everything
02.27.12
Tonight, the Big South tournament tips off with 2012 tournament play officially beginning at 7 pm ET at cozy Cameron Hall in Lexington, Virginia. That means it’s time for the annual tradition of log5-style conference tournament predictions to begin.
For the uninitiated, I’ll be using Bill James’ log5 equation (it makes theoretical sense!) on the pythagorean rating from my system to give appropriate estimates on the chances of conference tournament participants advancing to each round.
Why do this? Mainly to know who should win, so that when they don’t win you can express the appropriate level of surprise to your friends and co-workers. (Last year’s most improbable occurrence as UConn winning the Big East tourney at 2.0%.) But we also use it because it works really well. Better than seeding anyway. Take a look at this chart based on last season’s results:
This chart shows the team given the best chance by log5 to claim a conference tournament won the title in 15 cases, while just eight top seeds ended up winning. How much does “knowing how to win” matter in a single-elimination format? Nobody can know for sure, but keep in mind we are using methods here that have no direct input for wins and losses and last season it outperformed a method (seeding) that is based entirely on wins and losses.
To me, it’s another piece of evidence that best predictor of future success is not whether a team has quality wins or bad losses in the past, it’s how it’s played in the past. A team can play poorly in wins and great in losses and that’s what captured in this analysis. Follow along the next two weeks and we’ll summarize how the system did this season on Selection Sunday. Maybe the seeds will outperform log5 this season.
Without further ado, let’s get to our first contestants. The following five tournaments start on either Monday, Tuesday, or Wednesday. Listed are the chances of each team advancing to a particular round.
Big South
“The most exclusive event of the season”
Feb. 27, 29, March 1, 3
First round/finals at higher seed, quarters/semis at UNC Asheville
Qtrs Semis Final Champ 1 UNC Asheville 100 82.0 61.9 48.6 2 Coastal Carolina 100 77.0 49.2 20.5 4 Charleston S. 100 72.9 25.7 13.1 3 Campbell 100 70.4 31.4 10.1 6 Winthrop 100 29.6 11.2 2.3 8 High Point 73.0 14.3 6.3 2.2 5 Liberty 100 27.1 4.9 1.4 7 VMI 77.3 19.6 7.4 1.2 9 Gardner Webb 27.0 3.7 1.3 0.5 10 Radford 22.7 3.4 0.8 0.08
After the pair of first round games tonight, quarterfinal and semifinal action moves to Kimmel Arena, home of top-seeded UNC Asheville. Presumably it’s not named after Jimmy, but it only seats 3200, making this what I’m assuming is the smallest venue to host the bulk of a conference tournament in 2012. Eddie Biedenbach’s club has been dominant offensively, posting 1.14 points per possession in conference play. On top of that, they play an uptempo style. Not VMI-fast, but fast enough. Expect high scoring games when the Bulldogs are involved.
Horizon League
“Like the Human League, but with a double-bye”
Feb. 28, March 2,3,6
First round/finals at higher seed, quarters/semis at Valparaiso
Qtrs Semis Final Champ 2 Cleveland St. 100 100 70.0 44.2 1 Valparaiso 100 100 62.3 32.0 3 Detroit 89.9 53.4 18.2 8.7 5 Butler 82.1 44.8 17.9 5.8 4 Milwaukee 90.7 47.7 18.4 5.7 6 Youngstown St. 66.0 29.7 7.9 2.4 7 Green Bay 34.0 14.6 3.6 1.0 8 Wright St. 17.9 5.9 1.2 0.2 10 Loyola Chicago 10.1 2.3 0.2 0.02 9 Illinois Chicago 9.3 1.6 0.2 0.01
Valpo was the extremely unlikely regular-season champ, but they’re not the favorite despite earning home games for the duration of the event. Somehow Cleveland State has the best chances, even while enduring a five-game losing streak late in the season. Beloved Butler finished in a three-way tie for third but ended up on the wrong end of the tiebreaker, giving them a much more losable game in the first round against Wright State, inhibiting their shot at getting back to the NCAA tournament.
Atlantic Sun
“We’ll make our best team play on the road”
Feb. 29-March 3
All games at Mercer
Semis Final Champ 1 Belmont 96.4 84.9 62.3 2 Mercer 86.1 65.4 26.4 3 USC Upstate 68.3 23.2 5.3 4 E. Tenn. St. 63.9 10.2 3.4 6 Fla. Gulf Coast 31.7 6.5 0.9 5 North Florida 36.1 3.7 0.8 7 Lipscomb 13.9 4.9 0.6 8 Jacksonville 3.6 1.2 0.2
As a fan, I favor the traditional bracket over the stepladder approach, so I applaud the A-Sun. But for whatever reason, the conference has chosen to play its tournament at a pre-determined campus site. I’m sure they have their reasons, but the result is that for the second consecutive season, the conference’s dominant team may have to win a road game to snag the automatic bid. It’s an unfair parting gift for the Bruins who move to the OVC next season.
Ohio Valley Conference
“Hoping somebody beats Murray!”
Feb. 29-March 3
All games at Nashville, TN
Qtrs Semis Final Champ 1 Murray St. 100 100 85.7 68.9 2 Tennessee St. 100 100 62.7 18.3 4 Tenn. Tech 100 64.7 10.8 4.9 3 Morehead St. 100 49.4 18.3 3.7 7 Jacksonville St. 55.3 29.2 11.6 2.6 6 Austin Peay 44.7 21.3 7.4 1.4 5 SE Missouri St. 59.2 22.9 2.6 0.9 8 E. Kentucky 40.8 12.4 2.4 0.7
With the games in Nashville, Tennessee State gets half of normal home-court advantage in these calculations. I don’t think the OVC would mind getting a surprise winner here, especially since there’s the possibly that the champ would go to Dayton and have a winnable tourney game. Despite the double-bye, the bracket isn’t particularly kind to the Racers, but they’re still the overwhelming favorite.
West Coast Conference
“Crushing dreams of lower seeds since 2003”
Feb. 29-March 3, March 5
All games at Las Vegas, NV
Rd2 Qtrs Semis Final Champ 1 St. Mary's 100 100 100 78.3 36.2 2 Gonzaga 100 100 100 57.1 35.0 3 BYU 100 100 91.6 42.3 24.4 4 Loyola Mmt. 100 100 57.8 13.2 2.7 5 San Francisco 100 78.4 37.8 8.2 1.6 6 San Diego 100 63.7 6.3 0.5 0.08 9 Santa Clara 53.6 12.2 2.6 0.2 0.01 7 Pepperdine 100 36.3 2.1 0.1 0.01 8 Portland 46.4 9.4 1.8 0.1 0.01
I’m sure I say it every year at this time, but I don’t like the WCC’s stepladder format. When your conference is going to have at-large worthy teams, there’s no sense in protecting them in your conference tourney. Go to the standard bracket and invite some chaos. Plus, the event now drags out for six days. As it is, wake me up when the semis begin and St. Mary’s and Gonzaga see their first action.