Round of 32 log5
03.17.12
Swt16 Elite8 Final4 Final Champ 1 in… 1S Kentucky 81.5 60.0 48.5 31.9 19.3 5 2E Ohio St. 81.2 65.8 44.4 29.9 18.6 5 1W Michigan St 71.1 52.7 39.0 24.0 14.1 7 2MW Kansas 73.6 49.5 31.9 16.3 8.6 12 1MW N. Carolina 76.6 62.1 34.2 16.3 8.0 13 4E Wisconsin 64.5 38.5 19.1 10.8 5.5 18 1E Syracuse 67.8 34.6 15.9 8.4 3.9 25 4S Indiana 73.2 27.4 18.2 8.6 3.6 28 3S Baylor 76.8 57.0 20.2 8.4 3.0 33 7W Florida 92.8 52.0 20.1 8.1 2.9 34 3MW Georgetown 71.7 32.0 17.2 6.9 2.8 35 3W Marquette 67.8 35.8 13.7 5.5 2.0 51 5W New Mexico 54.2 18.0 9.4 3.7 1.3 75 9W St. Louis 28.9 15.6 8.5 3.5 1.3 76 5E Vanderbilt 35.5 16.1 5.9 2.5 0.9 106 4W Louisville 45.8 13.6 6.5 2.4 0.8 132 3E Florida St. 53.9 14.0 4.9 1.7 0.5 185 10MW Purdue 26.4 11.4 4.8 1.4 0.4 246 8E Kansas St. 32.2 10.8 3.3 1.2 0.4 282 8S Iowa St. 18.5 7.4 3.8 1.2 0.3 301 6E Cincinnati 46.1 10.8 3.4 1.1 0.3 324 7E Gonzaga 18.8 9.3 3.1 1.0 0.3 325 8MW Creighton 23.4 13.4 3.8 0.9 0.2 475 12MW S. Florida 57.1 15.2 3.8 0.8 0.2 594 6W Murray St. 32.2 11.5 2.7 0.7 0.1 680 10S Xavier 55.9 19.1 3.5 0.8 0.1 706 12S VCU 26.8 5.2 2.2 0.6 0.1 798 11MW N.C. State 28.3 7.1 2.4 0.5 0.1 850 15S Lehigh 44.1 13.0 2.0 0.4 0.06 1813 13MW Ohio 42.9 9.3 1.9 0.3 0.05 1856 11S Colorado 23.2 10.9 1.7 0.3 0.05 2156 15W Norfolk St. 7.2 0.7 0.04 0.002 0.0001 1033538
Rick Majerus: awesome coach
03.15.12
It was high comedy on Sunday when the brackets revealed that Memphis and Saint Louis were forced to play each other in the round of 64. I haven’t done the research, but it would be hard for any previous round-of-64 game to top this one in the overall strength of the competing teams.
Once my laughter died down, I began to truly feel sorry for Saint Louis. It has been a pretty amazing year for the Billikens, accompanied by no recognition whatsoever. For some context, let’s review the Rick Majerus era at SLU.
AdjO AdjD
Rank Rank
2012 36 10
2011 242 47
2010 190 29
2009 192 117
2008 194 103
It took Majerus a couple of seasons to successfully implement his trademark defense that does everything in its power to take away fast breaks and three-point attempts. However, the offense showed no signs of life during his first four seasons. What changed this season? Absolutely nothing in terms of the roster. OK, they did get point-guard Kwamain Mitchell back following his one-year exile from the team. But Mitchell played big-time minutes on the ’09 and ’10 teams that also struggled to score.
It’s amazing that the same roster that produced an inept offense last season en route to a 12-19 record can earn a nine-seed this season, and skill-wise, be considered under-seeded. What’s more is that not a single Billiken has a profile on DraftExpress. It’s not just that there isn’t a future draft pick on this team, it’s that there isn’t a player that NBA folks are even considering for employment. And yet, somehow it’s played like one of the best 25 or so teams in the nation.
For whatever reason, Majerus failed to earn get consideration for national coach of the year. Not only that, he didn’t even win his own conference’s award. And now, with one last shot to get some notoriety through a good performance in the tournament, he has to face the toughest eight-seed ever put in the draw. (OK, 1991 Georgetown might have a case.)
Naturally, I have sympathy for Memphis, too. They aren’t getting a break here, either. But Memphis has recently been in the national title game, and they are likely to have very successful seasons in the near future. Can the same be said for SLU? Considering the spontaneous combustion that occurred this season, I’m skeptical that Rick Majerus will preside over another team this good before he retires. While the Billikens return most of their roster next season, they do lose their most dependable offensive player in Brian Conklin.
Majerus’ stubborn devotion to a system that isn’t terribly exciting to watch has been maddening in recent years. A methodical system is one thing, but when it leads to a bunch of losses, it’s just boring. I attended his fourth home game as SLU’s head coach and it was a depressing sight lacking any entertainment value whatsoever. SLU and Long Beach combined to score 100 points in front of 17,000 empty seats. The Billikens were seven games away from scoring 20 points against George Washington, setting the shot-clock era record for fewest points in a game. Repeat that for four consecutive seasons.
But I can admire someone who is exceedingly stubborn, too. To muddle through four awful seasons and not change how you do business despite all sorts of back-seat driving impresses me in some sense. Take whomever you want for coach of the year, but it’s hard to believe there was a better coaching job this season than what occurred at Saint Louis.
Whether or not he deserved more recognition this season, there is no denying Rick Majerus can coach the game of basketball. For example, he once took a team whose third-best player was Hanno Mottola and beat a team whose third-best player was Miles Simon by 25 to earn a berth in the Final Four. Majerus might need less talent to win that any other coach in the country. I’m being presumptuous but perhaps the way things have unfolded this season is exactly how Rick Majerus wants it, because he has the opportunity to prove exactly that. On Friday, he’ll take a team whose third-best player is some dude named Cody Ellis against a team whose third-best player is Tarik Black, a projected future first-round pick.
If his team wins, Majerus can show the world yet again that he doesn’t need five-star talent to win, and if his team loses, that’s exactly what you’d expect of a team whose third-best player is Cody Ellis. Either way, it makes Friday night’s game the most compelling game of the round of 64* for me. And it tells me there’s no need to feel sorry for Saint Louis, after all.
P.S. You want to know the Majerus basketball philosophy? These three promotional videos for EA Sports produced nearly a decade ago will get you up to speed in 90 seconds. Methodically wait for a good shot on offense, and prevent catch-and-shoots on defense. Voila! Now you know what to expect Friday.
*With the exception of whichever game features the 16-seed winning, of course.
This is the year a 1 loses to a 16
03.13.12
Full disclosure: Every year I love the prospect of a 16 winning its first-ever game over a one-seed. Loyal readers will recall my irrational exuberance regarding Oral Roberts in 2006.
This is not without reason, though. If you run the numbers, the chances of all of the one-seeds getting to the Final Four are typically roughly equivalent to one of the top-seeds losing in the first round. Yet somehow history has betrayed the odds. The Apocalypse Scenario played itself out in 2008 when all of the one-seeds made the Final Four, while 16-seeds are 0-108 against one-seeds all-time. And there have really only been four cases where the outcome was in doubt in the final minute - none since Western Carolina took Purdue to the wire in 1996.
Even with this enormously long drought, I make it a point to watch each 1/16 game from the beginning, knowing that there’s the potential for history, and that if it occurs, I’ll have been along for the ride from start to finish. Usually, I need only maintain this ritual until the first or second media timeout when the game is obviously out of reach. But every once in a while there’s an Albany/UConn in 2006 or a Holy Cross/Kansas in 2002 where my vigilance is rewarded with a mildly interesting game in the second half. On Thursday and Friday, those are the moments I live for.
I’ll continue that tradition this season, once again believing this is the year. And this really could be the year. I say this every year, of course, but this time I mean it. For reals. The crop of 16 seeds in the 2012 tournament appears to be the strongest ever. I went back through my ratings going back to 2003 and then the SRS ratings at College Basketball Reference for data before then to find the 16-seeds that were ranked the highest. These are the ten-highest ranked 16-seeds of all-time:
Year Team Rank 2012 Lamar 102 1993 Wright St. 105 2009 E. Tenn. St. 111 2006 Oral Roberts 115 2012 Vermont 120 2012 UNC Asheville 121 1986 Montana St. 124 2008 Portland St. 127 1987 Penn 130 1985 Southern 130
Yep, 2012 has produced three of the strongest 16-seeds in the history of the tournament. Consider, too, that comparing the raw ranking of a 2012 team to teams from the ‘80s and ‘90s isn’t totally fair since there were fewer Division-I teams years ago. A ranking close to the top 100 is more impressive now with 345 teams in the mix than it was when there were 50 fewer teams. Also consider the absurdity of Lamar and Vermont facing off in a play-in game just to earn the right to slay a one-seed. Giving #213 Norfolk State a 15-seed and #165 LIU a free pass to the round of 64 weren’t the committee’s best moments on Sunday.
People have noticed the spuriously high probabilities for the low seeds to advance past the round of 64 in the log5 analysis, including this e-mailer:
Hello Mr. Pomeroy,
According to your NCAA Tournament log5 analysis, there’s only about a 50.9% chance of all eight teams seeded #1 or #2 reaching the round of 32. Seems ridiculously low. Even if you ignore Duke/Lehigh completely, there’s still about a one in three chance that one of the other 7 bites the dust. Do you think this has more to do with unusually strong #15 and #16 seeds or is it mostly due to log5 underrating a high seeded team’s round of 64 chances?
Lucas
I’ll agree that a 49% chance for a one- or two-seed to lose in the first round is stunningly high. I fear log5 overstates the chances of heavy underdogs. There were only two cases this season of a team winning a game when given less than a 5% chance of success.
The estimate isn’t so far off though. Based on the Vegas lines and assuming Kentucky and UNC have a 99% and 96% chance of winning its first games, respectively, the chance of a one- or two-seed falling is about 38%. And the chance of just a one-seed falling is roughly 15%, which is much, much greater than the chance of all four ones getting to the Final Four, which is about 1% this season.
I get my hopes up for this every year, though, and for 27 consecutive years I have been disappointed. Of the other teams on the list of the highest-ranked 16-seeds, the only one that made a feeble run at an upset bid was 2009 East Tennessee State which gave Pitt a minor scare. For instance, 1993 Wright State found itself on the unhappy end of a 43-point thrashing from Indiana. Thus, it was probably in the top 100 when it entered the tournament, even better than Lamar.
Despite the awful track record, I’ll be watching each of the 1/16 games from the opening tip, with a special eye on whomever emerges from the Lamar/Vermont game to take on UNC. This will be the year.