The 2012 kPOY watch list
01.20.12
It’s time to release the first leaderboard of the nation’s premier statistical individual award. For those new to these parts, the kenpom.com Player of the Year is based solely on statistical data. It’s safe to say that “player of the year” means different things to different people. But I’ve tried to define in the way it’s assumed to be defined for other more famous awards (Wooden, Naismith, etc.).
I hope we can agree that “player of the year” is not exactly “the best player in the country”. If you put Thomas Robinson on Houston Baptist, he’d be the same player but would have no shot at winning any player of the year awards. So much like other POY awards, the kPOY combines personal achievement and team strength. “Player of the year” for these purposes is essentially “the player that means the most to a very good team”. (If it was defined as the player that means the most to any team, Quincy Roberts would be the runaway winner, and we wouldn’t that.)
The kPOY formula is top secret, but it isn’t arbitrary. At least not totally. The calculations are based on the research done to produce pre-season team ratings, where player minutes are weighted according to the player’s value to his team. The more arbitrary part of the formula is the team influence. An off-season meeting of the kPOY selection committee determined that the quality of a player’s team should have slightly less influence in the formula and the calculations have been tweaked accordingly for this season. More details on the kPOY are in last season’s introductory post.
Note that this award is not designed to predict or otherwise mimic the Wooden or Naismith awards, other than to maintain a similar definition for identifying the winner. While voters in other awards generally look to per-game stats and ignore turnovers, this award looks at aggregate production based on advanced metrics. This award also includes defensive contributions, although we all know that box score data limits us somewhat in identifying those. However, by including team strength, the quality of a team’s defense is also a part of the kPOY mix, thus the influence of a player’s defense in this award is more robust than the human-derived awards. I think the inclusion of these additional factors make the kPOY better at identifying college basketball’s player of the year.
Eventually, I’ll get the kPOY standings hard-wired into the site so that we can see the list change on a daily basis. In the meantime, here are the top ten players in the kPOY standings through Wednesday’s action:
1. Thomas Robinson, Kansas (kPOY rating: .558): Robinson has been the most dominant player in the country on a team that has Final Four potential. Hard to argue he doesn’t deserve to be the frontrunner.
2. Jared Sullinger, Ohio St. (.476): Any criticism of Sullinger having a disappointing sophomore season is unfounded. He’s been as productive as freshman Sully, and in an offense that’s not as efficient as last season.
3. Draymond Green, Michigan St. (.453): Green’s numbers haven’t changed much from last season - he still does a variety of things very well, even if he does nothing great - but the Spartans appear to be a much better team than last year’s edition, which makes Green’s candidacy more relevant.
4. Mike Scott, Virginia (.446): You need no more evidence of the ongoing scourge of pace discrimination than the ESPN.com POY straw poll in which Scott received the same amount of votes as Julian Mavunga. #EndPacism
5. Anthony Davis, Kentucky (.422): The only freshman on the list, Davis is here mostly due to his defense, but he’s not one dimensional. He’s making 69% of his two-point attempts while rarely turning the ball over.
6. Kevin Jones, West Virginia (.420): Jones has always produced stunningly low turnover numbers, but this season he’s combining that skill with a 63% conversion rate on his twos. Oddly, he’s never been able to get to the free throw line very often during his career.
7. Jordan Taylor, Wisconsin (.411): It’s in the kPOY bylaws that there must be a representative from Wisconsin in the top ten. Taylor’s doing an under-appreciated job propping up what would otherwise be an ineffective offense.
8. Will Barton, Memphis (.376): Barton the Elder is flying under the POY radar, but he’s made massive improvements in his game as a sophomore and is the hands-down go-to-guy for the Tigers.
9. Doug McDermott, Creighton (.364): McDermott is basically the Valley’s Derrick Williams. His shooting percentages are off the charts despite a heavy workload and he’s a solid rebounder. Williams got essentially no POY consideration last season, but McDermott is high on most people’s lists right now.
10. Marcus Denmon, Missouri (.351): Denmon’s game is not quite that of a spot-up shooter, but his stats work out that way. You have to be damn good at shooting to make this list when that’s your main skill.
The six-game tournament?
01.19.12
The Ivy League likes to fancy its regular season as the “14-game tournament” because it doesn’t have an actual tournament and thus its 14-game regular season determines the conference champion. Technically, though, this is a misnomer. The Ivy League regular season is comprised of 56 games. The West Coast Conference has a tournament, but I’ve been wondering if you could call the regular season a six-game tournament in Ivy terms.
The WCC is composed of nine teams, but it spits in the face of the normal distribution by having three teams - Saint Mary’s, Gonzaga, and BYU, which I’ll call the Top 3 - that are much stronger than the other six, a.k.a. The Bottom 6. Thus far the Top 3 have gone 13-0 against the Bottom 6. There are three games tonight and the Top 3 are heavy favorites in each. But will the WCC truly be decided solely by the six contests between the Top 3?
This is a question only the simulator can answer. At least right now. Simulating the remaining conference schedule using Wednesday’s ratings resulted in the following records for the Top 3 in games against the Bottom 6.
Record Occurrences 36-0 1229 35-1 2753 34-2 2919 33-3 1891 32-4 833 31-5 278 30-6 81 29-7 12 28-8 4
Despite the fact that the WCC takes top-heavy (perhaps “bottom-light” is more appropriate) to the extreme, the simulation reveals that there’s an 88% chance that at least one of the Top 3 loses a game they shouldn’t.
St. Mary’s is now the favorite to win the regular season, having won both of the games involving Top 3 teams to this point. The fact that both games were on the Gaels’ home floor devalues those wins somewhat, but not completely. The home team has about a 60-65% chance to win games against an evenly-skilled opponent and the Gaels’ have turned that uncertainty into 100% by virtue of their wins. They need only split road games against BYU and Gonzaga to win the six-game tournament and give them a great shot at the regular season title.
But despite the chasm that exists between the two sets of teams in the conference, the six-game tournament isn’t quite the end of the story. While most games against the Bottom 6 will be lopsided, chances are that at least one of the Top 3 will be the victim of a major upset before the end of the season.
Play-by-Play Theater: consecutive field goals
01.17.12
Welcome back to Play-by-Play Theater, the semi-regular feature where we mine play-by-play data from the past 2+ seasons to discover the wacky things that happen in college hoops. Last week, we beat consecutive fouls to death. Today’s topic was suggested by a reader. Read on…
Mr. Pomeroy,
The host of a local sports call-in show used an example from the Kentucky-Tennessee women’s game last night to exemplify why he “hated” women’s basketball. At one point in the game, these two top-10 teams combined to miss 26 consecutive shots. He proclaimed that would never happen in a men’s game with two top-10 teams. I agree on the surface, but am curious what the data say. Something similar to the foul analysis you did on the previous play-by-play theater may be interesting.
Jeremy
Louisville, KY (UK Wildcats fan)
Kentucky has some weird laws, but my favorite one is that if you reside in Louisville and are a Kentucky fan, you are required to note this in your signature.
Indeed, the UK and Tennessee women put together quite a brick-fest late in the first half the other night. Here’s the play-by-play of that game if you need proof. (Never believe anything a sports talk personality says.) Could this happen in a men’s game?
This is pretty straightforward to tackle. Let’s look at the games since the beginning of the 2009-10 season that featured the most consecutive missed field goal attempts by both teams. Note here that all free throw attempts are ignored for the purpose of determining consecutive misses.
Most consecutive missed field goals since 11/2009
23 Radford at Virginia, 12/7/10 23 Alabama A&M at Ark Pine Bluff, 1/10/11 21 Georgetown at Villanova, 1/17/10 21 Rider at UMass, 11/12/10 20 SE Louisiana at Alabama, 12/15/10 20 Loyola Chicago at Kansas State, 11/13/09
Here’s the PBP from the Radford at Virginia game, with the just the field goal attempts for the streak in question.
GOOD! LAYUP by Harris, Joe [PNT] 19:31 34-19 H 15
18:23 MISSED JUMPER by SONMEZ,Gorkem
MISSED 3 PTR by Harris, Joe 18:08
17:38 MISSED JUMPER by SONMEZ,Gorkem
17:37 MISSED JUMPER by FAULKNER,Evan
17:30 MISSED 3 PTR by SONMEZ,Gorkem
MISSED JUMPER by Farrakhan, Mustapha 17:16
MISSED LAYUP by Sene, Assane 17:05
MISSED 3 PTR by Zeglinski, Sammy 16:17
15:47 MISSED JUMPER by SMITH,Jareal
15:07 MISSED JUMPER by SONMEZ,Gorkem
MISSED JUMPER by Harris, Joe 14:52
MISSED JUMPER by Harrell, KT 14:10
13:36 MISSED 3 PTR by FAULKNER,Evan
MISSED 3 PTR by Farrakhan, Mustapha 13:15
MISSED JUMPER by Scott, Mike 12:56
MISSED 3 PTR by Farrakhan, Mustapha 12:25
12:15 MISSED 3 PTR by SONMEZ,Gorkem
12:08 MISSED JUMPER by ABELE,Martins
MISSED 3 PTR by Zeglinski, Sammy 11:48
MISSED TIP-IN by Mitchell, Akil 11:43
11:37 MISSED JUMPER by SMITH,Jareal
11:02 MISSED JUMPER by ROBINSON,Jeremy
MISSED 3 PTR by Baron, Billy 10:48
10:37 38-23 H 15 GOOD! LAYUP by SMITH,Jareal [FB/PNT]
I’ve never been a supporter of the “GOOD!” descriptor in the play-by-play. This is a cold document representing the events that took place in the game. Not every made shot is a cause for celebration as the exclamation point implies. But when Jareal Smith made a layup to end a field goal drought of 23 attempts and nearly nine minutes, there was cause for real celebration.
Virginia went 4-24 from the field in the second half and still won by 10. So the sports-talk dude referenced above is probably on solid footing – missing 26 consecutive shots hardly ever happens in the men’s game, whether it involves top ten teams or not..
Let’s end on a positive note and look at the flip side of the situation. What’s the record for consecutive made field goal attempts? As you would expect, since field goals are less than a 50/50 proposition in hoops, the values here are somewhat lower than for consecutive misses.
Most consecutive made field goals since 11/2009
16 Kentucky at Louisville, 12/31/10 16 Charlotte at Chattanooga, 1/17/11 15 Cornell at Wofford 12/30/10 14 William & Mary at Longwood, 12/29/10 14 Saint Louis at Xavier, 2/5/11
Coincidentally, given our reader’s location and loyalties, the 2010 Kentucky/Louisville game is at the top of the list. Here’s the relevant portion of the second half where the streak occurred.
MISSED 3 PTR by SIVA, Peyton 16:06
15:56 26-44 V 18 GOOD! 3 PTR by Josh Harrellson
GOOD! LAYUP by JENNINGS, Terrence [PNT] 14:34 28-44 V 16
14:19 28-46 V 18 GOOD! LAYUP by Doron Lamb [PNT]
GOOD! 3 PTR by KNOWLES, Preston 13:52 31-46 V 15
13:19 31-48 V 17 GOOD! DUNK by Josh Harrellson [PNT]
GOOD! 3 PTR by SMITH, Chris 12:48 34-48 V 14
GOOD! LAYUP by KURIC, Kyle [FB/PNT] 12:35 36-48 V 12
12:25 36-50 V 14 GOOD! LAYUP by Josh Harrellson [PNT]
11:48 37-52 V 15 GOOD! JUMPER by Josh Harrellson [PNT]
GOOD! 3 PTR by KNOWLES, Preston 11:17 40-52 V 12
10:48 40-54 V 14 GOOD! JUMPER by Terrence Jones
GOOD! 3 PTR by KNOWLES, Preston 10:31 43-54 V 11
GOOD! JUMPER by KNOWLES, Preston 09:49 45-54 V 9
09:09 45-57 V 12 GOOD! 3 PTR by Brandon Knight
GOOD! JUMPER by KNOWLES, Preston 08:59 47-57 V 10
GOOD! JUMPER by SMITH, Chris 08:02 49-59 V 10
MISSED JUMPER by JENNINGS, Terrence 07:37
So many exclamation points! The sequence gets started by, what else, a Josh Harrellson three-pointer, one of just two he made all season. Using that as inspiration, the participants in this game went for nearly eight consecutive minutes without missing. Five three-pointers and five two-point jumpers were converted here, so it’s not like this was a dunk fest, either.
That wraps up another illuminating edition of Play-by-Play Theater. Thanks for reading and feel free to send along suggestion for future columns.