Let’s Play Four
12.15.04
I can't begin any post today without announcing how disappointing it is to hear that Rick Majerus will coach USC next season. It's a great move for USC, but a blow to humanity, as Majerus will likely never appear as a analyst on a college basketball game again. Fortunately one of his rare TV gigs was captured for posterity in a game diary I did on the Michigan/Georgia Tech game a couple of weeks ago. Had I been able to see the future, I would have devoted more words in that post to the magnificent job he did that night, and less on game action. Rick, you will be missed. May your oh-fense be filled with dunks and lay-ups.
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Siena beat Youngstown State 79-78 in four overtimes last night. Quadruple overtime is something that happens roughly once in every 3000 games. The last time was on January 8, 2003 when Akron fell to Ohio 112 to 104. Ohio played in an astounding seven OT games that season (one short of the single-season record) with a total of 12 overtime periods (two short of that record).
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Since its birth for the 2000 season, the Mountain West Conference has enjoyed the perks of an unofficial automatic bid for its regular season champion. Along the way, champs with RPI ranks of 50, 64, and 70 have received at-large bids. This season may be the first where the conference tournament is the only way to get a bid. It's so bad for the MWC that UNLV's win at Auburn on Saturday was, without question, the premier victory for any conference member so far. And we are almost two-thirds of the way through the non-conference schedule.
No other MWC team has a win over a team that will be considered for an at-large berth, and it's doubtful even that Auburn will. The only realistic at-large chance within the conference is New Mexico. But they'll need wins over both Tennessee and Wake Forest to make up for a dreadful non-conference schedule.
So where are the MWC's usual second bid and occasional third bid going? From history, we know that the extra bids are likely to end up in the hands of the major conferences. But there's a chance a bid could go the MAC or WCC. And it's pretty obvious now that the Missouri Valley is a multi-bid league, barring some unbelievable parity within the conference.
An MVC team with as many as four conference losses will almost surely get a bid, and I expect any five-loss teams to get serious consideration. Even teams that aren't expected to compete for the conference crown got impressive wins over the weekend - Evansville winning at Western Kentucky [correction: game was at Evansville], and Illinois State coasted over Marshall. There's still time for all the good to be undone over the next three weeks of non-conference play, but based on the season-to-date, that's not something you should expect.
The one conference that could use a little more publicity is the Sun Belt. The conference sits tenth in the RPI due to member schools upgrading their schedules across the board, with respectable results to go with it. But an at-large from there is a longshot. Now if Louisiana Lafayette could knock off NC State tonight...
Whatchu Talkin Bout Willis
12.14.04
Yesterday, Kyle over at midmajority.com provided a link to an article written by Rice head coach Willis Wilson on collegeinsider.com. It starts,
It’s a lost art, a thing of the past. Many college basketball analysts use such phrases when describing the current state of free throw shooting. On any given night you can peruse the box scores to find the evidence. Percentages from the charity stripe have declined in recent years, but the question is why?
Readers of this blog know that this is simply not the case, and it's not like one has to dig real far to figure this out. Just go to page 43 of the official NCAA Basketball Records Book. Percentages did go down slightly in 2004, but 2003 was the third best year ever for free throw accuracy. Even '04 wasn't too shabby, what with two players chasing the all-time single-season free throw accuracy record. Southwest Missouri State's Blake Ahearn got the record by missing only 3 out of 120 free throws for a 97.5% success rate. Duke's JJ Redick came up a little short at 95.3%.
When two people chased the home run record in the same season, fans immediately suspected that either the ball was juiced or the hitters were juiced. Some folks did the research and found out that balls were flying out of parks at an unprecedented rate. When two people chased a free throw record, nobody bothered to challenge the notion that free throw shooting accuracy is declining.
There's a camp out there that thinks statistics are meaningless. Numbers can be twisted to say anything, sure. But intuition can be off the mark also. Here we have a case where I'm guessing most fans and coaches believe that free throw shooting is deteriorating, when actually the opposite is true. If our intuition can be off on a matter as simple as this, why couldn't it be off on other fundamental basketball-related beliefs?
18 Unbeatens, One By One
12.13.04
A look at each of the remaining unbeatens, ordered by rank in the Pomeroy ratings (yeah, so that's not too self-serving)...
Illinois 9-0 (Pomeroy rank: 1)
Best performance to date: 12/1 beat Wake Forest 91-73, but it wasn't nearly that close.
Worst Performance: 12/9 beat Georgetown 74-59 in a game that was tied with four minutes remaining...in the first half.
Fun Fact: Second in the nation in offensive efficiency (1.208 points per possesion)
Oklahoma State 7-0 (Pomeroy rank: 2)
Best performance: 12/7 beat Syracuse 74-60.
Worst Performance: 11/27 beat Sam Houston State 73-57, but trailed by six at halftime.
Fun Fact: Fourth in the nation in field goal percentage.
Kansas 6-0 (Pomeroy rank: 3)
Best performance: 11/29 beat Nevada 85-52.
Worst Performance: 11/19 beat Vermont 68-61 in a game that had suspense in the final minute.
Fun Fact: According to my ratings, has played the toughest schedule of any of the unbeatens.
Duke 6-0 (Pomeroy rank: 4)
Best performance: 11/30 beat Michigan State 81-74.
Worst Performance: 11/22 beat Davidson 74-61.
Fun Fact: Ranks fourth in the nation in blocked shots per game.
Pittsburgh 7-0 (Pomeroy rank: 5)
Best performance: 12/7 beat Memphis 70-51.
Worst Performance: 12/11 beat Penn State 74-61.
Fun Fact: Have scored 80 or more points in five games this season. They had four such games all of last season.
Georgia Tech 6-0 (Pomeroy rank: 6)
Best performance: 11/30 beat Michigan 99-68.
Worst Performance: 11/22 beat Illinois-Chicago 60-59.
Fun Fact: Had gone 16 years making at least one three in every game until going 0 for 2 from long range against Air Force on Saturday.
Cincinnati 6-0 (Pomeroy rank: 8)
Best performance: 12/9 beat Vanderbilt 88-72.
Worst Performance: 11/24 beat Northern Iowa 76-70 in double overtime. UC trailed by 18 with 10 minutes to go.
Fun Fact: They do this every year, then lose in 2nd round of NCAA Tournament.
North Carolina State 7-0 (Pomeroy rank: 15)
Best performance: 11/19 beat East Carolina 100-66.
Worst Performance: 11/29 beat Purdue 60-53.
Fun Fact: N.C. State leads the nation in offensive efficiency (against a weak schedule, though)
Wichita State 5-0 (Pomeroy rank: 34)
Best performance: 12/11 beat Providence 90-86.
Worst Performance: 11/27 beat Austin Peay 72-62.
Fun Fact: Shoot 48.2 free throws/100 field goal attempts, 21st best in the nation (yeah that's lame, it's the best I could do).
Boston College 7-0 (Pomeroy rank: 35)
Best performance: 11/26 beat Clemson 79-70.
Worst Performance: 12/9 beat Holy Cross 63-60 in overtime.
Fun Fact: According to the RPI, have played the toughest schedule of the unbeatens, for what it's worth, which is nothing.
Marquette 9-0 (Pomeroy rank: 36)
Best performance: 12/11 beat Wisconsin 63-54.
Worst Performance: 11/14 beat Western Carolina 75-64.
Fun Fact: Marquette has rebounded 45% of its own missed shots, the fifth best rate in the nation.
West Virginia 6-0 (Pomeroy rank: 49)
Best performance: 11/27 beat LSU 84-69.
Worst Performance: 11/24 beat Duquesne 72-69.
Fun Fact: Has committed .192 fouls per possesion, the lowest rate in the nation.
Fresno State 6-0 (Pomeroy rank: 55)
Best performance: 12/8 beat USC 71-68.
Worst Performance: 12/3 beat Grand Canyon 63-53.
Fun Fact: They're 2nd in the nation in field goal percentage defense (32.4%).
Hawaii 5-0 (Pomeroy rank: 81)
Best performance: 11/29 beat Southern Illinois 66-64.
Worst Performance: 12/26 beat Coastal Carolina 72-65. Coastal lost to Chaminade two days later.
Fun Fact: Has two players with nearly identical names, Matt Gibson and Matt Gipson.
Kansas State 6-0 (Pomeroy rank: 85)
Best performance: 11/27 beat Washington State 62-53.
Worst Performance: 11/19 beat North Dakota State 70-61.
Fun Fact: Has committed .202 fouls per possesion, the 3rd lowest rate in the nation.
Hofstra 6-0 (Pomeroy rank: 105)
Best performance: 12/11 beat St. John's 78-68.
Worst Performance: 11/19 beat North Dakota State 70-61.
Fun Fact: 6-0 for the first time since moving to Division 1 in 1973.
Oral Roberts 6-0 (Pomeroy rank: 106)
Best performance: 12/5 beat cross-town rival Tulsa 70-47.
Worst Performance: 12/11 beat Utah Valley State 92-89 on last-second shot.
Fun Fact: Has never started a season 7-0.
Texas A&M-College Station 6-0 (Pomeroy rank: 166)
TAMU-CS has beaten North Carolina A&T, Trinity University, Texas-Permian Basin, Oakland, Prairie View, and Alabama A&M - all at home. Come on Aggies, you're an embarrassment to the Big XII.
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