No-Hitters
02.15.05
When you don't have anything to say, let the readers say it for you...
Ken,
Just saw your column commenting on Seth Davis saying Illinois "needed" a loss. Someone should ask Seth how teams with 1 loss have won since undefeated IU. Based on the teams I read about in the Final Four program in '97 and the fact that there have been none since then, I'd say not well. So I guess you need 2 losses.
Alan
This is so very true. Folks are obsessed with going unbeaten, but there hasn't been a one-loss champion since '76, either. There have been 17 teams to enter the dance with one loss from '77 to '04, and all of them came up short. Only three went so far as the Final Four, and only '99 Duke made it to the finals. So the evidence would seem to point against the utility of a late-season loss for the Illini.
Ken,
On Saturday the Dayton Flyers played the LaSalle Explorers and Dayton did not attempt a single foul shot. Despite not attempting a free throw, Dayton won the game. I can not remember a game where this has happened before and I remember you (I think) writing an article on how the importance of foul shots can be over emphasized.
So here are my questions.
How often does a game take place and one team does not attempt a single foul shot?
Thank you, I really enjoy your site.
Mike
College hoops version of the no-hitter doesn't happen very often. Over the past two seasons, there have been only four instances of a team not shooting any free throws (team with no free throws in bold).
12/04/03, Central Florida @ Florida, Result: Florida 58-38 2/28/04, Michigan State @ Penn State, Result: MSU 67-42 11/26/04, Charleston Southern @ Notre Dame, Result: ND 54-38 2/12/05, Dayton @ LaSalle, Result: Dayton 56-45
In what surely must be a coincidence, and not related to any type of shady referee compensation program, the road team is the one that didn't get to the line in all four cases.
Bubble Wrap
Begrudgingly, I submit my look at the at-large picture. In my patented piecemeal approach, I am adding bubble teams this week. This is probably more for my benefit than yours, so if you think I've missed something - maybe I have! Drop me a line to let me know.
I've had to ax three teams from the lock list I produced last week.
Texas - The reasons for the removal of Texas from this list were given last week in this space. Texas is still limping badly, evidenced by an overtime home win against Kansas State last Saturday, when the Longhorns went 11 for 20 from three. They are totally at the mercy of bombs and excellent defense from here on out.
Minnesota - Individually, a home loss to Northwestern or a road loss to Indiana are not back-breakers. But together they hurt a lot, especially since the Indiana loss was lopsided. I still think the Gophers will get a bid, but they need to do some work.
Stanford - Their profile looks great, but with the season-ending injury to leading scorer (and third-leading rebounder) Dan Grunfeld, who knows if the new version of the Cardinal will be at-large worthy? I'm guessing not. Jason Haas will move into the starting point guard role and Chris Hernandez will fill in for Grunfeld at the two. They lose a lot of size with that change, and Haas is not much of an offensive presence.
I've also had to turn the other cheek to keep Georgia Tech on this list. Ultimately, they will get enough done to get in.
The additions are Maryland, DePaul and Florida.
ACC - UNC, Wake, Duke, Georgia Tech, Maryland
Pac 10 - Washington, Arizona, UCLA
Big East - BC, Syracuse, Pitt, UConn, Villanova
Big XII - Kansas, Oklahoma St., Oklahoma, Texas Tech
Big Ten - Illinois, Wisconsin, Michigan St.
SEC - Kentucky, Alabama, Mississippi St., Florida
WCC - Gonzaga
MVC - Southern Illinois, Wichita St.
CUSA - Louisville, Cincinnati, Charlotte, DePaul
MWC - Utah
And now for the rest of the teams with a legitimate chance to play their way into an at-large bid. The principle here is similar to the locks - I am not listing every team with a glimmer of hope of getting a bid. I'm listing the teams I feel have the ability to play their way in. So that means while Indiana has a shot if they go something like 5-1 down the stretch, I don't think they will, especially with Bracey Wright coming back.
(Speaking of Indiana, I'm starting to buy the whole "woe is me" act from Mike Davis. Have you seen what opponents are shooting from the free throw line against the Hoosiers? 75%!! That's the second best opponents FT% of any team in the nation.)
ACC - Miami
Pac 10 - Arizona St., Stanford
Big East - Notre Dame, Georgetown
Big XII - Texas, Iowa St.
Big Ten - Minnesota, Iowa
SEC - LSU
WCC - (none)
MVC - (none)
CUSA - Memphis, UAB, Marquette
MWC - (none)
Atlantic 10 - George Washington
MAC - Miami, Kent St.
America East - Vermont
WAC - Nevada
Big West - Pacific
CAA - Old Dominion
Exhibits A and B for why tourney projections are nearly pointless this far out are the Big East and Conference USA. It is really difficult to separate teams three through seven in the Big East. I just think UConn and Villanova are better teams than Notre Dame and Georgetown, but based on their resumes, any of them should get in with nine conference wins.
Of the CUSA bubble teams, Marquette is the team with the best chance now that Travis Diener is back. It's between him, Diogu, and Coppenrath, for the single most important player to any team in the nation.
There are 52 teams and 16 conferences listed. So 36 of these teams are vying for the 34 at-large bids, assuming no upsets in conference tournaments, and you can count on at least two of those. So at least two of the above teams will not get a bid. But this list will change quite a bit from week to week, as a few teams that I'm not giving any chance pull off surprises.
The Lost Episode
02.14.05
On Saturday, there were two comebacks that will forever be remembered by fans of the teams involved in the games. UNLV's was the most impressive - an 11-1 run over the last 22 seconds against San Diego State to force overtime. But the most significant was Pacific's 11-2 run in the final 27 ticks to win at Utah State. It was only UoP's second win in 32 tries in Logan, and would seem to give them control of their own destiny in the at-large race.
Pat Forde has a nice (and free!) edition of Forde Minutes on espn.com, giving additional details on both games (example: Steve Fisher's teams are 1-11 in overtime). There are also some other nuggets using the AP poll to show that Cinderella is dead when it comes to Final Four access. Parity, schmarity.
[Update: Reader Jeff reveals another amazing - but more drawn out - comeback on Saturday. Western Kentucky overcame a 30-5 deficit to beat North Texas on a last second heave, 93-92. He provides video from his WKU fan page]
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I don't know who the worst free throw shooter in America is, but among major college teams, Pitt's Mark McCarroll has a good case. He's made 19% of his attempts this season on 4 of 21 shooting. The bizarre thing about McCarroll, a senior, is that he was 55 of 95 (57.9%) in his first three seasons. That's not exactly someone you would want at the line in crunch time, but also not someone you're tempted to send to the locker room in the final minutes of a tight game, either.
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Over the weekend, I discovered a half-started post from last April that I never published:
Air Force head coach Joe Scott has taken the head coaching job at Princeton. And so ends Air Force's day in the college basketball sun. The '04 campaign will be that fluky blip on the radar of AFA basketball history, kind of like the David Robinson years at Navy.
The move surprises me because there is no chance of getting an at-large bid at Princeton, while Scott just did that with Air Force. Scott essentially has decided that he will be a lifer at Princeton. He could succeed Bill Carmody at Northwestern, assuming they become successful enough where they want to continue with the Princeton scheme. But that transition won't take place for another 10 years.
For those who don't keep tabs on the 14-game tournament that is the Ivy League regular season, Princeton is in dead last in the Ivy at the midway point, with a 2-5 record.
In 49 seasons of the Ivy League's existence, the Tigers have never finished worse than .500 in conference play. It's a stunning turnaround for Scott, who last season led Air Force to their first winning conference record in it's 24 seasons of participation in the WAC/MWC.
This was not supposed to be a rebuilding job for Scott. There were high pre-season expectations for Princeton, who won the Ivy last year and lost only one player off that team. While Joe Scott intends to be a lifer at Princeton, it will only take a couple more seasons like this to take that decision out of his hands.
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