Thursday, January 22, 2004
Doubleheader on the Deuce
What a great pair of games tonight both filled with oddities.
In falling to Florida State, North Carolina did something they have never done before - blow a 24 point lead and lose.
In losing to Richmond, Kansas did something they haven't done in over a decade - lose a non-conference game to an unranked team at home.
(Corrected Kansas factoid on 1/23)
Wednesday, January 21, 2004
Dipping in to the e-mail bag
Matt from Indiana offers this...
First of all, I love your site, keep up the good work. Secondly, it's been a rough year for Indiana fans this season. However, just when everyone was giving up, we have reeled off three straight wins. What will it take for the Hoosiers to get into the tournament? We have no huge wins, but three solid ones in ND, Xavier, Michigan, all away from Assembly Hall. 10-6 in the conference would get us to 16-11, if we can get one more in Big Ten tourney, 17-12. Would a 17-12 Indiana team make the tourney? Has a 10-6 Big Ten team ever been left out? IU is nowhere to be found on most site's bracket projections, but I think we really have a chance. Thanks.
See when you lose 3 games by 30 points or more before mid-January, I tend to lose interest in that team. So this e-mail caught me off guard. What, IU has won 3 in a row? No, really. I had tuned them out before the debacle against Wisconsin two weeks ago. After that 34 point loss, Mike Davis said something like, "we can still win the Big 10". I mean seriously Mike. Then I saw that Indiana was playing Ohio St. last night on ESPN, and I didn't even pay attention to it. Just didn't care.
But it turns out Matt is right. It's a matter of record that the Hoosiers have won 3 in a row since the Wisconsin game. While I wouldn't give them any shot at winning the Big 10, they actually could go 10-6, because the conference is so screwed up this year. If anyone has to pick how the Big 10 race turns out, they would be advised to follow this strategy:
1) Put the names of Wisconsin and Michigan St. in a hat. Draw for 1st and 2nd.
2) Put the names of the other 9 teams in a hat. Draw for 3rd through 11th.
So has a 10-6 Big 10 team been left out of the bracket? Not really. You have to change the rules a little, because before the Big 10 tourney was invented, there were 18 conference games. Only 2 10-6 or 11-7 teams have been left out since 1985: 2003 Michigan who was on probation, and 1991 Illinois who was on probation. Illinois would have definitely been in. Michigan probably not. So history would sort of be on IU's side. But almost all of the teams that got in had a much better overall record than the Hoosiers will have, and actually last year's Michigan team is a pretty good comparison to what would be a 17-12 Indiana team in the scenario Matt presents. A 17-12 IU team would be at the mercy of how tight the bubble is, and how good their non-conference wins look at the end of the of season. But, yes, it could happen.
Tuesday, January 20, 2004
Saint Joseph’s and the 11 Dwarfs
That would be my name for the Atlantic 10 this year. St. Joe's has a legitimate shot to enter the NCAA tourney unbeaten, partially because they are very good and partially because the rest of their conference is down this year. I wouldn't bet on the Hawks pulling it off, but their chances are much better than the other 2 unbeatens, Stanford and Cincinnati. Now that they have risen to #3 in both polls, if they do run the table they will certainly be #1 at the end of the year. However, even if they are unbeaten they might not be a #1 seed in the tourney. The committee has set the precedent with Gonzaga year after year with regards to seeding based on whom you've beaten. Right now SJU has 1 win against a definite tourney team (Gonzaga) and 1 win against a probable team (Boston College). The A10 isn't doing them any favors. No other team has emerged as a definite dancer. Dayton will be in line for a bid if they don't do anything stupid, but the conference may only get 2 teams in. And that means if SJU does go unbeaten, they will only have 4 wins over tourney teams. Maybe 5 if Villanova gets going. Then what if they lose one or two games from here on out? Hawks fans, prepare to be disappointed with your seeding.
Now onto another question: What can we expect from the Hawks in the postseason? Last year they flamed out against Auburn. The Hawks were only a 7 seed but the 1st round loss was surprising to most, as Auburn hadn't done much to impress up to that point. SJU has essentially the same personnel as last year. Players that didn't return only produced 10% of SJU's minutes in 02-03. They have the same guys back with another year under their belt and appear to be improved, but are they a Final Four team?
Their guard tandem of Jameer Nelson and Delonte West is far and away the best in the nation. Throw in the unheralded Tyrone Barley who occasionally joins the duo off the bench for a 3-guard set and this is easily the most guard-dominated team in the top 10. Those 3 guys have accounted for 46.5% of the team's minutes this year. Last year they played 42.2% of the minutes, although West missed 4 games so if you account for that it comes out a little closer. But there's still a slight edge to more "guard minutes" this year. How reliant upon the guards is this team? Nelson and West are the 2nd and 3rd leading rebounders on this team, respectively.
Each member of the guard trio has improved this year. All three have improved their shooting percentage from last year, with both Nelson and West amazingly around 50%. Nelson's turnovers are down, and his assists are slightly down also, but who cares? He's the best option on the team and he can't pass it to himself. All three guards are shooting the 3 better than year and Nelson and West are better from the free throw line. As you would expect, the same is true for the Hawks as a team. Every aspect of the Hawks offense has improved this year.
02-03 03-04 FG% 44.3 47.3 3FG% 36.3 38.9 FT% 68.6 70.2 OE 111 116 TO% 23.6 21.4
Defensively, their numbers are virtually identical to last year.
02-03 03-04 Opp FG% 44.3 47.3 Opp 3FG% 33.2 30.7 DE 91 92 TO% 26.8 26.6
The one aspect that has deteriorated for SJU is rebounding, and this is the factor that will likely prevent them from going deep in the tourney.
02-03 03-04 OR% 33.9 28.1 DR% 64.0 64.7
They are giving up nearly the same amount of second shots to their opponents, and they have had a decrease in getting their own offensive boards. As long as Nelson and West continue to shoot like they are 6'-9" (West was 12-12 against Xavier last Saturday), there isn't much need for second shots. But as the Hawks encounter better defensive teams in the tournament, their shooting percentage will naturally go down, and its unlikely their rebounding percentage will go up. They were outrebounded badly against Gonzaga, but didn't do that bad against BC. They held their own against two other quality opponents, Cal and Xavier, although both of those teams have been outrebounded for the season themselves. I have to think it's pretty rare for a team to get outrebounded on the year and then get to the Final Four. If the Hawks do get there, it would be on the shoulders of the backcourt. They would have to be considered one of the best guard combos of all-time if their continued hot shooting allows SJU to play in April.
Monday, January 19, 2004
RPI FAQ
I have added a page that answers some of the questions I routinely get on the RPI. See it here.
Thursday, January 15, 2004
Friday Morning Update
I will not be able to update the ratings again until Friday morning 1/15 at approximately 9:30 AM EST.