Monday, February 02, 2004
Doubting Dozen
Now that the Super Bowl is behind us, it’s time to get serious about college hoops postseason. A lot of folks are out there projecting brackets, so I am not going to go that route. Instead, here is my analysis of the at-large prospects of various teams, in order of conference strength. Teams with a (?) next to them are on the proverbial bubble. This is not a “if the season ended today” projection. Future schedules of teams are taken into account. For example, Virginia would might get in if the season ended today, but a likely 8th or 9th place finish in the 9-team ACC will prevent them from getting consideration.
Just because a team isn’t listed here doesn’t mean they couldn’t vault themselves into the at-large discussion with a good run. Also, just because a team is listed as “in” doesn’t mean they can’t play their way out. There is plenty of time left for a team’s true colors to come out, and many changes will occur.
ACC (7 teams) – Duke, Georgia Tech, Wake Forest, North Carolina St., North Carolina, Maryland, Florida St. While Maryland or Florida St. will have 10 conference losses, both will have enough quality victories to get in. FSU could use a quality road win to cinch things up however. The worst loss by any member of the ACC was Maryland's loss to #90 West Virginia.
SEC (8) – Kentucky, Florida, Vanderbilt, South Carolina, Mississippi St., Alabama, LSU, Tennessee (?). Ga. Tech at Tennessee this Saturday is HUGE for the Vols chances. Tennessee has only one win away from Knoxville and that combined with a pathetic pre-conference schedule is killing them. If they get by the Jackets, then the SEC has a realistic shot of sending an unprecedented 8 teams to the dance (and 5 out of 6 from the SEC East). Although LSU and USC could easily play themselves out at this point.
Big East (7) – Connecticut, Providence, Pittsburgh, Seton Hall, Syracuse, Boston College, Rutgers (?). The loss to WVU really hurt BC, another bad loss will drop them from shoo-in status to being in danger.
Conference USA (6) – Louisville, Cincinnati, UAB, Charlotte, Memphis, Marquette (?). C-USA stands to benefit most from the demise of the Pa(theti)c-10. Marquette’s eye-catching win at Louisville really helps them get back in the hunt, even if there were some injury issues with their opponent.
Big 10 (6) – Wisconsin, Michigan St., Purdue, Indiana (?), Illinois (?), Michigan (?). It’s a real longshot that the Big 10 gets all 6 of these teams in. Injuries have played a role in Purdue’s and Indiana’s embarrassing losses, so their portfolios are better than they look on paper.
Big 12 (6) – Kansas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma St., Texas, Oklahoma, Missouri (?). Oklahoma is undeserving of a top 25 ranking, but without any bad losses they are a lock for selection. Missouri’s hopes are still on life-support, but they have some opportunities left to impress the committee.
Atlantic 10 (3) – St Joseph’s, Dayton, Richmond (?). Richmond has made an amazing resurrection since falling to La Salle on January 10th. They will be Dickie V’s poster child if they are denied a bid by an 8th SEC or 7th ACC team. They have 8 losses right now, but 6 are to the RPI top 50. The win at Kansas will cover a lot of sins when bids are handed out.
Mountain West (2) – Air Force, Utah (?). The MWC is in a bit of disarray. BYU had the best non-conference run, but they have crashed and burned in conference play. Air Force is the feel good story of the year, but they had a horrible non-conference schedule. Utah must finish no worse than 2nd in the conference to get a bid.
Pac 10 (3) – Stanford, Arizona, Oregon (?). Hard to believe this league might only get two bids, but UCLA’s recent losses to USC and St. John’s have damaged their dreams badly. Oregon is the best hope for a third bid.
WAC (2) – Nevada (?), Hawaii (?). Hawaii’s RPI is inflated by playing a non-conference schedule exclusively on the islands. But they have proven themselves on the road in WAC play, so they deserve mention. If Nevada can regroup and win the WAC regular season they should get in.
44 bids are available from these 10 conferences, and I listed 50 teams. Teams from other conferences with legitimate at-large aspirations: Gonzaga (a lock from the WCC), Southern Illinois (MVC), Utah St. (Big West), Western Michigan and Kent (MAC).
So here’s the Doubting Dozen. The top six teams would be in, the bottom six are out. Utah St. and Southern Illinois are assumed to get the automatic bid from their conference. But if they don’t, the bubble divider gets moved up one team. The same applies if a team not listed in the 50 teams above gets one of their conference’s automatic bids. That means that while Rutgers is listed as in, they would only get in under the ideal and unrealistic scenario that nothing stupid happens in conference tournaments.
1 Indiana 2 Illinois 3 Richmond 4 Utah (Utah St.) (Southern Illinois) 5 Marquette 6 Rutgers -bubble divider- 7 Hawaii 8 Nevada 9 Tennessee 10 Michigan 11 Oregon 12 Missouri
Saturday, January 31, 2004
Black Saturday
17 teams in the top 25 played unranked teams today and 8 lost. The top 2 in the polls - Duke and Stanford - were impressive and are separating themselves from the rest of the nation. Stanford had an excuse ready with the loss of starter Justin Davis, but they refused to use it. Sophomore Matt Haryasz stepped in as a starter for the first time and contributed 19 points and 7 boards and some key defensive work late in the comeback win at Oregon. #3 Saint Joseph's also took care of business, setting an Atlantic 10 single-game record for made 3 pointers with 20 in the win at Temple.
On the other hand, people have to start asking questions about 3 of college basketball's winningest programs - UNC, Kansas, and Kentucky. The names on their uniforms have not been getting it done the last couple of weeks.
Back in Business
Thanks to everyone who e-mailed me regarding the tournament resume page. There were a few things wrong with it, mainly the fact that when some teams were selected, another team's data would pop up. It should be alright now.
In my last comment before I left everyone to fend for themselves, I mentioned how Utah coach Rick Majerus would not be too pleased if Air Force shot better than 50% from the field. Well, it turns out Air Force did, and Majerus took it worse than I thought. By now most people are aware that Majerus nearly had a heart attack on the Tuesday following the game. Majerus has announced his resignation following the season, although it's unclear whether he will return to the bench before the season ends. He needs to make shedding 100 pounds his top priority, so this is obviously a good decision. He'll be a very entertaining TV analyst next year.
With the win at Vanderbilt, South Carolina appears to be for real. I wouldn't know, because they're not on TV all that often. They apparently like to play rough (dirty?) and their style might be suited more for an ice rink. This team warrants a little more analysis, which I'll give them if they get by Ole Miss today.
A great atmosphere will surround the Saint Joseph's/Temple game today. The guards for SJU will get their share of open looks, and then some. If they aren't cold, the game won't be very close like the two meetings last year between these teams.
The game I want to see will be Duke/Georgia Tech. Duke is fast becoming the favorite to win it all, and a road win against the Jackets would cement that notion.
Monday, January 26, 2004
Hiatus
Sorry, but there will be no daily updates this week. The next update will be on Saturday morning, 1/31. In other news, I have posted the "compare tournament resume" function on the RPI page. This feature allows you to compare two teams and get the basic information the committee will rely on to make its decisions on seeding and at-large selections. So all of you who dream of being Southern University AD (and committee member) Floyd Kerr can live out your fantasy. If you find any bugs with it, drop me a line.
Football on the Hardwood
Air Force hosts Utah tonight. The football version of this matchup resulted in a 45-43 victory for Utah. This game could end up with a similar score. However if it's going to be that high scoring, it's probably going to need 3 overtimes like the football game.
Air Force is coming off a game where they went 29 of 40 from the field. That's 72.5% - a season high for any team in a single game this year. If they crack 50% against Utah, Rick Majerus will kick at least 3 players off his team. So I expect this game to be real ugly.