Total Rebounding
01.07.05
Hello, Ken
Thanks for your great work. I love the efficiency stats.
A stat I would like to see kept somewhere is offensive rebounding percentage (plus defensive rebounding percentage = rebounding efficiency). As I'm sure you know, OR% = OR/missed FGA. DR% = DR/opponents' missed FGA.
Michael
I'm going to use Michael's idea with a few changes, defining offensive rebounding percentage as,
OR% = your offensive rebounds / (your offensive rebounds + their defensive rebounds)
and defensive rebounding percentage as,
DR% = your defensive rebounds / (your defensive rebounds + their offensive rebounds)
Then the two percentages can be summed to get Total Rebounding (TR). When TR is greater than 100, a team is better at getting rebounds than its opponents. TR is a much better way to measure rebounding ability than the NCAA's stat of choice, average rebounding margin, because TR eliminates the effect of shooting percentage.
If your opponent misses many more shots than you, you tend to get more rebounds because there are more opportunities for defensive rebounds, which are easier to get than offensive rebounds. I offered an example of this in a post last season. TR is a true measure of a team's ability to rebound the basketball relative to the competition they have faced.
So check out the stats page and see how your team stacks up in this category.
As always, you can e-mail me with suggestions for the next Stat O' the Week or with questions like: What the hell are you talking about?
Shelden Williams is not Emeka Okafor
01.06.05
But he's close.
Williams '05 Okafor '04 FG% 57.3 59.9 PPG 14.5 17.6 RPG 12.3 11.5 BPG 3.5 4.1
Williams has averaged one less minute per game than Okafor did, but fortunately Duke plays at a faster pace than UConn did, making this an apples-to-apples comparison in terms of possessions played per game.
Okafor was more skilled offensively, but Williams is not far behind. The difference in field goal percentage is offset by the fact that Williams gets to the line more, and is a better free throw shooter.
Williams '05 Okafor '04 FTA/FGA .56 .50 FT% 64.8 51.8 PPWS 1.21 1.19
PPWS is points per weighted shot, an idea created by John Hollinger and pushed further by Big Ten Wonk. If you do a google search for PPWS, you'll find Wonk's page describing PPWS sitting behing the Virginia Tech Department of Plant, Physiology, and Weed Science. So the stat hasn't gone mainstream yet. However, this weed identification guide proivided by Virginia Tech is indispensible.
PPWS is like an effective field goal percentage accounting for free throw production. So a Shelden Williams shot in 2005 is about as productive as an Emeka Okafor shot in 2004. Okafor took more shots in 2004, so his points per game was higher. And even with the increased role in the offense, Okafor turned the ball over less than Williams has this season. So there's no doubt Okafor has the edge in this area, but Williams ain't chopped liver.
Williams has an advantage in rebounds, an advantage that may decrease slightly as he faces the more accurate shooting teams of the ACC. But don't expect his average to go down much - it actually increased during conference play last year.
The disadvantage Williams has in blocks is a little misleading because teams took more shots against UConn last season than they are against Duke this season. UConn is one of the worst teams in the nation at forcing turnovers, allowing UConn's shot blockers more opportunities to do their thing. Williams blocks 9.8% of his opponents two point shot attempts when he's on the court. Okafor blocked 11.0% last season.
Shelden Williams isn't going to make any all-American teams this season. People outside of ACC country hardly know who he is. Yet there's a strong case to be made that he is the best all-around player in the ACC.
A Deal With the Devil
01.05.05
Texas A&M at College Station is getting ready to tip it off against Kansas in Lawrence. TAMUCS has made a name for itself on this site and elsewhere with a schedule that has been hideously pathetic. Because of this, I have been derisively adding the campus location any time I referenced the Aggies. But what you should also know about these guys is that they are not the pushover they were last year. Six conference wins is not a stretch for them this year, which is six more than they had last year. Especially when you consider Billy Gillispie's miracle revival of UTEP last season.
So why do I bring this up on an evening when the Aggies figure to get smoked? Because if they are going places - namely the NIT - they won't get smoked. I'm not one for "emotional factors" being all that significant in a game, but tonight is an exception. There's no way KU or its fans can have the same energy for this game that they had for Georgia Tech. They passed a huge test over the weekend, beating the Yellow Jackets without Mr. Double-Double, Wayne Simien.
The next uncertainty regarding the Jayhawks is how they will play on the road. They get to answer that on Sunday at Kentucky. It's only human nature to relax for the A&M game sandwiched in the middle. On the flip side, TAMUCS has had this game circled for a couple of weeks. It's a chance to show if they have any legitimacy at all. Throw in that Antoine Wright has as much ability to score in the paint as anyone wearing a KU uniform tonight, and this appears to be a great opportunity for the Aggies.
Strictly from a numbers perspective, you have to love the Aggies chances. Only once in their last 28 games has the result of one their games been different from the previous game's result. They lost the first 17 in a row in that sequence and have won the last 11 in a row. Based on that, TAMUCS has like a 97% chance of winning tonight because their most recent game was a win. (OK, that's a really dumb use of statistics, but I couldn't resist.)
So here's my deal for you, Texas A&M at College Station. I know you can't win against the Jayhawks. KU can sleepwalk through 40 minutes, even without Simien, and manage an ugly victory. But if you can lose by less than the Pomeroy predicted margin of 13, I will never distinguish your campus location again in this here space.
I'm on your side on this one, Aggies. Really, I am.
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