Elite 8 log5
03.23.12
The field has been rid of the longshots. At this point, there aren’t any true surprises left in the field.
Final4 Final Champ Start 1 in… 1S Kentucky 76.6 57.2 33.6 19.7 3 2E Ohio St. 64.4 41.2 24.8 19.3 4 2MW Kansas 53.0 22.5 10.9 9.1 9 1MW N. Carolina 47.0 18.7 8.5 6.6 12 1E Syracuse 35.6 17.7 8.2 4.4 12 7W Florida 54.8 18.4 6.4 1.7 16 4W Louisville 45.2 13.4 4.1 0.5 24 3S Baylor 23.4 11.1 3.4 1.7 29
Sweet 16 log5
03.18.12
Hot off the presses, we have the log5 analysis for the 16 remaining teams. These teams comprised 81% of the title-winning chances before the tourney started, up from 69% last season, indicating that this year’s group was more expected than last season’s. (Pre-tournament chances are indicated in the ‘Prev’ column.) Michigan State received nearly 6% of the 19% the losers left behind, primarily due to surviving the gauntlet that was their round-of-32 game.
This obviously doesn’t account for injuries, but I have a feeling UNC’s chances aren’t that far off. They have the enormous benefit of getting to play the weakest team remaining in the field in their first game. Beating Ohio is not certain, of course, but just getting to play them is the best-case scenario if you’re trying to figure out how to play basketball without a point guard.
(Corrected Final/Champ odds on 3/21 to account for proper FInal Four matchups. -kp)
Elite8 Final4 Final Champ Prev 1 in… 1S Kentucky 71.7 56.9 36.2 21.5 19.7 5 2E Ohio St. 82.9 52.7 34.1 20.1 19.3 5 1W Michigan St 76.4 54.8 31.6 17.7 12.4 6 2MW Kansas 80.4 46.3 21.3 10.2 9.1 10 1MW N. Carolina 84.9 45.5 19.8 9.0 6.6 11 4E Wisconsin 52.5 23.0 12.2 5.7 4.2 18 1E Syracuse 47.5 19.8 10.0 4.5 4.4 22 4S Indiana 28.3 17.2 7.2 2.7 0.5 37 3S Baylor 72.6 21.9 8.2 2.7 1.7 37 7W Florida 52.9 19.0 7.2 2.5 1.7 40 3W Marquette 47.1 15.8 5.6 1.8 0.9 55 4W Louisville 23.6 10.4 3.3 0.9 0.5 106 6E Cincinnati 17.1 4.5 1.3 0.3 0.2 321 11MW N.C. State 19.6 5.3 1.0 0.2 0.1 531 10S Xavier 27.4 4.0 0.8 0.1 0.04 835 13MW Ohio 15.1 2.9 0.4 0.05 0.01 1965
Round of 32 log5
03.17.12
Swt16 Elite8 Final4 Final Champ 1 in… 1S Kentucky 81.5 60.0 48.5 31.9 19.3 5 2E Ohio St. 81.2 65.8 44.4 29.9 18.6 5 1W Michigan St 71.1 52.7 39.0 24.0 14.1 7 2MW Kansas 73.6 49.5 31.9 16.3 8.6 12 1MW N. Carolina 76.6 62.1 34.2 16.3 8.0 13 4E Wisconsin 64.5 38.5 19.1 10.8 5.5 18 1E Syracuse 67.8 34.6 15.9 8.4 3.9 25 4S Indiana 73.2 27.4 18.2 8.6 3.6 28 3S Baylor 76.8 57.0 20.2 8.4 3.0 33 7W Florida 92.8 52.0 20.1 8.1 2.9 34 3MW Georgetown 71.7 32.0 17.2 6.9 2.8 35 3W Marquette 67.8 35.8 13.7 5.5 2.0 51 5W New Mexico 54.2 18.0 9.4 3.7 1.3 75 9W St. Louis 28.9 15.6 8.5 3.5 1.3 76 5E Vanderbilt 35.5 16.1 5.9 2.5 0.9 106 4W Louisville 45.8 13.6 6.5 2.4 0.8 132 3E Florida St. 53.9 14.0 4.9 1.7 0.5 185 10MW Purdue 26.4 11.4 4.8 1.4 0.4 246 8E Kansas St. 32.2 10.8 3.3 1.2 0.4 282 8S Iowa St. 18.5 7.4 3.8 1.2 0.3 301 6E Cincinnati 46.1 10.8 3.4 1.1 0.3 324 7E Gonzaga 18.8 9.3 3.1 1.0 0.3 325 8MW Creighton 23.4 13.4 3.8 0.9 0.2 475 12MW S. Florida 57.1 15.2 3.8 0.8 0.2 594 6W Murray St. 32.2 11.5 2.7 0.7 0.1 680 10S Xavier 55.9 19.1 3.5 0.8 0.1 706 12S VCU 26.8 5.2 2.2 0.6 0.1 798 11MW N.C. State 28.3 7.1 2.4 0.5 0.1 850 15S Lehigh 44.1 13.0 2.0 0.4 0.06 1813 13MW Ohio 42.9 9.3 1.9 0.3 0.05 1856 11S Colorado 23.2 10.9 1.7 0.3 0.05 2156 15W Norfolk St. 7.2 0.7 0.04 0.002 0.0001 1033538