Log5 Part 4: Get to know Arkansas State
03.05.12
This is part four of the log5 conference tournament previews. Yesterday, Arkansas State ripped the heart out of LaRon Dendy and Middle Tennessee in the Sun Belt quarterfinals, 64-61. The ninth-seeded Red Wolves appearance in the semifinals was given a 5.3% chance of happening before Sun Belt festivities started, a new standard for improbability during tournament season. The 3, 5, 7, and 9 seeds are in the Sun Belt semis, so there’s the potential for lower chances to be realized yet.
Here’s another dump of log5’s for tournaments beginning this week. I’ll pick up the stragglers tomorrow.
Atlantic-10
“Better attended than the Pac-12 tourney!”
March 6,9-11
First round at higher seed, remaining games at Atlantic City, NJ
Qtrs Semis Final Champ 2 Saint Louis 100 77.6 60.0 44.1 1 Temple 100 72.4 45.1 19.9 4 St. Bonaventure 100 55.0 25.0 8.6 3 Xavier 100 55.4 16.5 7.7 5 Saint Joseph's 83.5 40.9 18.2 6.1 6 Dayton 85.8 41.5 11.9 5.4 7 La Salle 76.0 18.7 9.8 4.7 8 UMass 73.2 21.8 9.0 2.4 10 Richmond 24.0 3.7 1.4 0.5 9 Duquesne 26.8 5.8 1.8 0.3 12 Charlotte 16.5 4.2 0.9 0.2 11 G. Washington 14.2 3.1 0.3 0.07
Big East Conference
“Still tougher to win than the NCAA tournament”
March 6-10
All games at New York, NY
Rd2 Qtrs Semis Final Champ 1 Syracuse 100 100 79.4 54.7 39.5 2 Marquette 100 100 65.6 45.4 20.1 5 Georgetown 100 81.9 54.4 24.4 15.1 3 Notre Dame 100 100 64.8 25.8 7.9 4 Cincinnati 100 100 40.1 12.1 5.6 7 Louisville 100 68.1 26.7 15.8 5.5 8 West Virginia 100 55.6 11.7 4.5 1.9 6 South Florida 100 59.4 22.9 6.8 1.5 9 Connecticut 79.6 40.2 8.6 3.3 1.4 10 Seton Hall 64.9 23.6 6.4 2.9 0.7 14 Villanova 54.0 22.9 7.3 1.7 0.3 13 Pitt 54.8 10.6 3.4 0.6 0.2 11 Rutgers 46.0 17.7 5.0 1.1 0.2 12 St. John's 45.2 7.5 2.1 0.3 0.08 15 Providence 35.1 8.3 1.4 0.4 0.06 16 DePaul 20.4 4.2 0.3 0.04 0.007
Big 12 Conference
“One last chance for the Border War”
March 7-10
All games at Kansas City, MO
Qtrs Semis Final Champ 1 Kansas 100 93.8 72.9 54.6 2 Missouri 100 86.7 58.4 23.0 4 Baylor 100 54.5 14.9 7.3 5 Kansas St. 100 45.5 11.1 5.0 6 Texas 100 51.1 19.7 5.0 3 Iowa St. 100 48.9 18.4 4.5 7 Oklahoma St. 83.4 12.7 3.5 0.4 8 Oklahoma 55.3 3.7 0.7 0.1 9 Texas A&M 44.7 2.5 0.4 0.07 10 Texas Tech 16.6 0.6 0.04 0.001
Big West Conference
“Providing ESPN with late-night programming since the beginning of time”
March 8-10
All games at Anaheim, CA
Semis Final Champ 1 Long Beach St. 97.4 85.2 59.1 3 UC Santa Barbara 86.9 59.0 24.7 2 Cal St. Fullerton 73.4 27.9 7.8 4 Cal Poly 76.9 21.0 7.5 5 UC Riverside 23.1 2.6 0.4 6 Pacific 13.1 1.7 0.2 7 UC Irvine 26.6 2.2 0.3 8 UC Davis 2.6 0.2 0.02
Conference USA
“Feeling nostalgic for the good old days when Memphis was the prohibitive favorite?”
March 7-10
All games at Memphis
Qtrs Semis Final Champ 1 Memphis 100 94.6 85.9 75.9 2 Southern Miss 100 69.7 39.5 8.1 3 Tulsa 100 55.7 28.2 5.0 4 UCF 100 65.4 9.0 4.3 6 Marshall 76.5 38.7 19.8 3.5 5 UAB 66.5 26.3 2.6 1.0 10 East Carolina 55.2 17.8 6.9 0.8 8 UTEP 62.1 3.9 1.6 0.6 7 Rice 44.8 12.5 4.2 0.4 12 Tulane 33.5 8.3 0.5 0.1 9 Houston 37.9 1.5 0.5 0.1 11 SMU 23.5 5.6 1.4 0.1
Great West
“Yup, these are all of the eligible teams in our conference”
March 8-10
All games at Chicago St.
Semis Final Champ 1 Utah Valley 100 64.1 42.8 4 NJIT 91.5 35.4 19.8 3 UT Pan American 100 51.9 19.8 2 North Dakota 100 48.1 17.5 5 Houston Baptist 8.5 0.5 0.1
Mid American Conference (Corrected)
“Where parity reigns”
March 5,7-10
First round at higher seed, remaining games at Cleveland, OH
Rd2 Qtrs Semis Final Champ 1 Akron 100 100 100 67.1 36.4 3 Ohio 100 100 69.5 41.4 23.6 2 Buffalo 100 100 100 45.8 21.8 4 Kent St. 100 100 73.9 27.9 11.7 6 Bowling Green 90.8 65.0 24.1 11.2 4.9 8 W. Michigan 68.9 49.3 15.6 3.4 0.9 7 Toledo 62.6 19.8 3.7 0.9 0.2 9 Ball St. 31.1 20.8 5.6 1.0 0.2 10 Miami OH 37.4 12.3 2.4 0.6 0.2 5 E. Michigan 87.1 28.4 4.9 0.5 0.07 11 C. Michigan 9.2 2.9 0.3 0.04 0.005 12 N. Illinois 12.9 1.5 0.08 0.002 0.0001
Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference (Corrected)
“The 30th-best conference in America five years running”
March 6-10
All games at Winston Salem, NC
Qtrs Semis Final Champ 1 Savannah St. 100 77.0 52.7 36.1 2 Norfolk St. 100 72.2 43.4 20.0 5 N.C. Central 86.4 62.3 28.0 16.2 3 Delaware St. 100 64.5 32.2 13.0 6 Coppin St. 74.2 30.5 12.6 4.1 4 Bethune Cookman 83.8 31.5 9.0 3.5 7 N.C. A&T 69.3 22.4 9.5 2.8 9 Morgan St. 58.2 14.8 6.5 2.8 8 Hampton 41.8 8.2 3.0 1.1 10 Howard 30.7 5.4 1.3 0.2 11 Florida A&M 25.8 5.0 1.0 0.2 12 UMES 13.6 4.3 0.5 0.1 13 S.C. State 16.2 2.0 0.2 0.02
Mountain West Conference
“Our last-place team has a 2% chance of winning”
March 7-10
All games at UNLV
Semis Final Champ 2 New Mexico 90.7 49.4 38.7 3 UNLV 77.0 41.9 33.2 1 San Diego St. 71.1 41.4 11.2 4 Colorado St. 58.8 30.8 7.9 6 Wyoming 23.0 7.7 4.5 5 TCU 41.2 15.2 2.4 8 Boise St. 28.9 12.6 1.8 7 Air Force 9.3 1.0 0.3
Southland Conference
“Pat Knight put us on the map”
March 6-10
All games at Katy, TX
Semis Final Champ 1 UT Arlington 94.7 68.3 41.2 3 Lamar 77.6 49.8 26.7 2 Stephen F. Austin 80.4 38.3 17.3 5 UT San Antonio 64.7 22.6 9.6 4 McNeese St. 35.3 8.3 2.4 6 Northwestern St. 22.4 8.1 2.1 7 Sam Houston St. 19.6 3.8 0.7 8 Nicholls St. 5.3 0.7 0.06
Southwestern Athletic Conference
“Our regular-season champ didn’t win a single non-conference game in regulation”
March 7-10
All games at Garland, TX
Semis Final Champ 1 Miss. Valley St. 84.6 66.9 45.5 2 Texas Southern 79.5 59.4 30.8 3 Prairie View A&M 64.1 22.8 7.4 4 Alabama St. 51.7 14.2 5.5 5 Ark. Pine Bluff 48.3 12.7 4.8 7 Alabama A&M 20.5 9.0 2.2 6 Alcorn St. 35.9 8.8 2.0 8 Jackson St. 15.4 6.2 1.9
Western Athletic Conference
“We really should hold this thing in Hawaii”
March 8-10
All games at Las Vegas, NV
Semis Final Champ 2 New Mexico St. 77.2 58.4 37.7 1 Nevada 85.7 53.9 28.2 4 Utah St. 65.0 31.0 13.9 3 Idaho 66.4 23.2 9.9 7 Fresno St. 22.8 11.1 4.0 5 Louisiana Tech 35.0 11.9 3.8 6 Hawaii 33.6 7.4 2.1 8 San Jose St. 14.3 3.2 0.6
Log5 Part 3: All hail VMI
03.02.12
Congrats are in order to VMI. Oh sure, the seven-seed out of the Big South hasn’t really won anything yet. But their mere appearance in their conference tournament’s championship game was given just a 7.4% chance of happening before the event got underway, and thus they have set the bar for other longshots to reach, even if they can’t pull of the improbable and beat UNC Asheville for the automatic bid on Saturday.
The following three tournaments get underway Saturday.
Big Sky Conference
“Damian’s last stand”
March 3, 6, 7
First round at higher seed, remaining games at Montana
Semis Final Champ 1 Montana 100 89.1 66.6 2 Weber St. 100 70.7 23.9 3 Portland St. 81.7 24.5 4.9 4 E. Washington 85.4 13.7 4.3 6 Montana St. 18.3 1.1 0.2 5 Idaho St. 14.6 0.8 0.1
Montana beat Weber State by 15 on Tuesday in the championship before the championship which earned the Griz the right to host a potential rematch next Wednesday. There’s a 63% chance of a rematch, which seems low given that the only time one of these teams lost to somebody else in the conference was when Idaho State’s Kenny McGowen hit a walk-off three to beat Weber State on January 14. I know what you’re thinking - “The Kenny McGowen that made just 33% of his three-point attempts this season?” Yes, that Kenny McGowen.
Summit League
“The revenge of Nate Wolters”
March 3-6
All games at Sioux Falls, SD
Semis Final Champ 2 South Dakota St. 86.4 71.8 52.5 1 Oral Roberts 88.3 65.6 28.9 3 Oakland 71.0 18.2 7.7 5 North Dakota St. 57.4 19.3 5.0 4 W. Illinois 42.6 11.9 2.5 7 IUPUI 13.6 6.1 2.0 6 Southern Utah 29.0 3.9 1.0 8 IPFW 11.7 3.3 0.4
South Dakota State gets half of normal home-court advantage here, but even without it, they’d have the best chance to advance out of the Summit. Oral Roberts is 17-1 in league play, yet it’s been over a month since they won a game by more than ten points. Note: The average Summit possession resulted in 1.07 points this season, tops among all conferences.
Sun Belt Conference
“You, too, can say no to divisional seeding”
March 3-6
All games at Hot Springs, AR
Qtrs Semis Final Champ 1 Middle Tennessee 100 85.5 71.8 46.9 3 Denver 100 85.6 68.4 36.8 2 Ark. Little Rock 100 60.7 17.3 5.0 5 North Texas 100 56.0 12.8 4.1 4 La. Lafayette 100 44.0 8.5 2.3 8 Fla. Atlantic 57.2 9.2 4.6 1.4 7 W. Kentucky 53.7 22.0 4.9 1.1 6 South Alabama 62.0 10.3 4.6 1.0 10 Florida Int'l 46.3 17.3 3.5 0.7 9 Arkansas St. 42.8 5.3 2.3 0.6 11 Troy 38.0 4.1 1.4 0.2
The Sun Belt has wisely ditched the divisional seeding format of previous seasons. Somehow, UALR beat out Denver for the two-seed. It’s season sweep of the Pioneers helped. Even so, this analysis has Denver as the heavy favorite to advance from that half of the bracket to the conference title game.
Log5 Part 2: Where have all the upsets gone?
02.29.12
The second installment of log5-style conference tournament predictions features little in the way of surprises. To this this point, we’ve yet to see anything worse than a two-seed favored to win. The following seven conferences start their postseason festivities between tonight and Friday.
Patriot League
“It’s all about the home court”
Feb. 29, Mar. 3, 7
All games at higher seed
Semis Final Champ 1 Bucknell 96.7 83.5 52.1 2 Lehigh 97.0 81.0 40.0 3 American 87.4 17.8 5.5 4 Holy Cross 67.5 11.3 1.7 5 Lafayette 32.5 4.8 0.6 6 Army 12.6 0.9 0.09 7 Colgate 3.0 0.3 0.01 8 Navy 3.3 0.4 0.01
Lehigh grades out as the best team in the Patriot 8, but the built-in home court advantage for every game of the tournament gives top-seeded Bucknell enough of a push to be the favorite.
America East
“Maine will win this someday”
Mar. 1, 3, 4, 10
First three rounds at Hartford, final game at higher seed
Qtrs Semis Final Champ 1 Stony Brook 100 96.2 74.4 53.1 2 Vermont 100 82.2 56.6 27.2 3 Boston U. 100 74.2 31.6 11.7 4 Albany 100 56.3 17.5 5.2 5 New Hampshire 100 43.7 7.6 1.3 7 Maine 100 17.8 6.0 1.0 6 Hartford 100 25.8 5.7 0.5 8 UMBC 57.9 2.5 0.4 0.02 9 Binghamton 42.1 1.3 0.1 0.006
Vermont’s flub against Binghamton last week cost them the one-seed which was especially painful for their chances of winning the AE tournament. The path through the 7 and 3/6 seeds is significantly more difficult than the 8/9 and 4/5 seeds.
Missouri Valley Conference
“Home of the five-way tiebreaker”
Mar. 1-4
All games at St. Louis, MO
Qtrs Semis Final Champ 1 Wichita St. 100 92.7 79.7 64.3 2 Creighton 100 81.8 55.9 18.8 5 Northern Iowa 100 55.8 10.7 4.8 6 Missouri St. 100 54.3 21.4 4.6 3 Evansville 100 45.7 16.3 3.1 4 Illinois St. 100 44.2 7.1 2.8 7 Drake 78.3 16.7 6.2 0.9 8 Indiana St. 70.8 6.2 2.3 0.7 9 S. Illinois 29.2 1.1 0.2 0.03 10 Bradley 21.7 1.5 0.2 0.01
It’s true, seeds 3 through 7 finished with identical 9-9 records in conference play. And if Indiana State didn’t blow a four-point lead with three minutes to go against Creighton in its season finale, it could have been a six-way tie. There’s still a healthy 17% chance that neither Wichita State nor Creighton wins this thing and thus steals an at-large bid from somebody.
Northeast Conference
“We’re the fairest of them all”
Mar. 1, 4, 7
All games at higher seed
Semis Final Champ 2 Wagner 85.5 66.4 41.4 1 Long Island 75.9 50.0 26.9 3 Robert Morris 87.8 37.1 18.6 5 Quinnipiac 53.4 23.5 8.3 4 St. Francis NY 46.6 13.5 3.0 7 Central Conn. 14.5 4.2 1.1 8 Sacred Heart 24.1 3.1 0.5 6 Monmouth 12.2 2.2 0.4
Hey, finally a conference where the one-seed isn’t the favorite. The NEC plays each game at the higher seed and re-seeds the semis for good measure. Still, Wagner is able to overcome this structure and as the league’s best team, it remains the favorite.
Colonial Athletic Association
“Why did we invite Towson, again?”
Mar. 2-5
All games at Richmond, VA
Qtrs Semis Final Champ 2 VCU 100 89.7 65.8 38.7 1 Drexel 100 89.8 60.2 34.0 4 Old Dominion 100 69.9 29.7 12.3 3 George Mason 100 53.2 16.7 6.2 6 Georgia St. 75.9 40.4 13.7 5.8 5 Delaware 94.3 30.0 8.1 2.0 7 Northeastern 73.3 9.0 2.6 0.5 11 Hofstra 24.1 6.4 1.0 0.2 8 James Madison 54.0 5.9 1.2 0.2 9 UNC Wilmington 46.0 4.3 0.8 0.09 10 William & Mary 26.7 1.3 0.2 0.02 12 Towson 5.7 0.2 0.004 0.0001
VCU gets half of home-court advantage here with the games being played at the nearby Richmond Coliseum. That breaks what would be a virtual tie between the Rams and the streaking Dragons for top-odds honors here. By the way, the CAA has been all about defense this season - its games ranked first among conferences in steal percentage and second in block percentage.
Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference
“Not just at a neutral site - in a neutral state”
Mar. 2-5
All games at Springfield, MA
Qtrs Semis Final Champ 1 Iona 100 91.3 64.3 46.7 3 Manhattan 100 78.0 48.1 18.9 4 Fairfield 100 75.5 29.2 17.2 2 Loyola MD 100 78.2 39.2 13.2 5 Rider 100 24.5 4.6 1.5 6 Siena 100 22.0 7.2 1.2 7 Niagara 75.6 19.3 5.2 0.8 8 Marist 77.0 7.9 1.9 0.5 10 Canisius 24.4 2.4 0.3 0.02 9 St. Peter's 23.0 0.8 0.07 0.006
The MAAC chances are nicely fragmented across the top four seeds providing an opportunity for a little mayhem. It’s worth mentioning that Iona averages 1.18 points per possession in a conference where the average was 1.01 in conference games. Fortunately for the rest of MAACachusetts, the Gaels’ defense has some leaks.
Southern Conference
“Showing people how silly divisional seeding can be”
Mar. 2-5
All games at Asheville, NC
Qtrs Semis Final Champ 1S Davidson 100 89.3 79.9 63.8 4S C. Of Charleston 75.3 59.7 37.3 13.3 2S Wofford 100 76.2 41.8 12.7 3S Georgia Southern 55.9 32.2 5.4 2.0 2N Elon 100 45.1 6.0 1.9 5S Furman 57.3 6.8 3.6 1.3 1N UNC Greensboro 100 26.6 8.5 1.3 3N W. Carolina 70.0 19.5 6.6 1.1 6N Chattanooga 44.1 22.8 3.2 1.1 5N Appalachian St. 24.7 13.7 5.0 0.9 4N Samford 42.7 3.9 1.8 0.6 6S The Citadel 30.0 4.3 0.8 0.07
There is no worse idea in tournament bracketing than division-based seeding. College of Charleston would be a five-seed if the SoCon seeded by conference record. But because the Socon imposes an arbitrary divsion structure on its proceedings, the Cougars are what amounts to a seven-seed. The top five seeds from the South division each have a better chance of winning this event than the top seed from the North, UNCG.