The Boeheim exception
by Ken Pomeroy on Tuesday, January 29, 2013
For a few minutes on Saturday twitter was abuzz tracking the Eastern Michigan-Northern Illinois game. The only way a low-end MAC game has mass-appeal is if something extremely unusual happens, and in this case it was NIU’s four-point half that got people’s attention. The Huskies’ struggles continued to a lesser extent into the second half, and at one point they were 0-for-32 on three-point attempts. Sadly, Daveon Balls was successful on NIU’s final three-ball, keeping the Huskies from establishing a record for three-point futility that may have stood for a long time.
When it was all over, there was something to be learned, though. More than just NIU’s offense is a disgrace to basketball. Hidden in the details of the circus-act of a game was that Rob Murphy’s defense probably has some control over its opponents’ three-point percentage.
Weekend in Review: Longing for 1953 scoring levels
by Ken Pomeroy on Monday, January 28, 2013
The 3 most appealing games (according to FanMatchTM):
1) Wisconsin 45, Minnesota 44 [51] (Saturday) The Badgers won the game, which was not really an upset. They also got more offensive rebounds (11-8) which was not really an upset, either, considering Minnesota’s woeful defensive rebounding. Of course, nobody like Minnesota anymore now they have lost four straight, despite the fact that three of those losses are to Indiana, Michigan, and Wisconsin, and a top ten team would be expected to lose to those teams anyway.
Week in Review: A FanMatch failure
by Ken Pomeroy on Friday, January 25, 2013
The 3 most appealing games (according to FanMatchTM):
1) Miami FL 90, Duke 63 [79] (Wednesday) It was so bad Dick Vitale returned his honorary Duke degree. The ‘Canes are now the favorite to take the ACC regular-season (I got them at 66%), thanks to a two-game lead over the field and a relatively easy remaining schedule. The damage was done with a 29-5 run to close the first half. Reggie Johnson was ineffective in his return (15 minutes, missed his only two field goal attempts) which makes this result all the more bizarre.
A post about winning
by Ken Pomeroy on Thursday, January 24, 2013
For the most part, I’ve gotten out of the game of sparring with those critical of analytics. I’ve tried to channel my inner Whelliston with a personal mission statement along the lines of “If you don’t like what I do, just go away.” There are enough coaches and media folks using this stuff that the work has been validated, and I get much more enjoyment out of doing research and interacting with people that are interested in it than getting involved with tedious discussions. If the use of analytics somehow makes you enjoy the game less or you feel like it’s voodoo of some sort, no biggie. There’s room for all of us at the college hoops table. You do your thing, I’ll do mine.
(That said, if any coach or media type unfamiliar with analytics is willing to meet me even a quarter of the way, I’ll gladly spend time trying to help you better understand what we do and how it will help you. I totally get that this stuff doesn’t come naturally to most people.)
Evidence that scoring margin matters
by Ken Pomeroy on Tuesday, January 22, 2013
Most people understand that scoring margin matters, at least when it comes to evaluating the strength of a team. So the conclusion from the data contained herein is not going to be a huge surprise to most readers. But the data itself is still interesting and I think it’s one of the simpler approaches to demonstrate this idea. First, let me set the table.
I wanted to determine the degree to which scoring margin matters and if there was some point at which it didn’t matter anymore. I went about it like I did for the one-point study. There are obviously more sophisticated ways to do this, and I’m not suggesting this is worthy of being published in an academic journal, but the simplicity of this approach requires no leap of mathematical faith by folks who might otherwise be turned off by a more complex effort.
I looked at all cases in the last ten years where there were rematches in a single season to see how well scoring margin in a home game predicted the outcome of the next road game (or games) in a series. I’ll present the results in three charts. The first one plots the scoring margin in the initial home game against the average scoring margin in the road rematch for those cases.
Weekend in Review: Don’t eat ants, kids
by Ken Pomeroy on Monday, January 21, 2013
The 3 most appealing games (according to FanMatchTM):
1) Michigan State 59, Ohio State 56 [60] (Saturday) John Donne penned the famous poem “No Man is an Island” in the 17th century. It would have never been written had he anticipated the Ohio State offense in 2013. Deshaun Thomas is clearly an island, and even though he was his usual productive self (28 points on 20 FGA’s, 2 FTA’s, and one turnover), no island is going to beat Michigan State this season without some sort of herculean defensive effort.
Week in Review: When offensive rebounds aren’t enough
by Ken Pomeroy on Friday, January 18, 2013
The 3 most appealing games (according to FanMatchTM):
1) Michigan 83, Minnesota 75 [66] (Thursday) Minnesota satisfied its appetite on the offensive glass, grabbing 14 boards in 30 chances (though many appeared to be in garbage time). But they didn’t have an answer for Tim Hardaway, Jr. and only had a few answers for Trey Burke (#3 in your program, but #12 in reality after the structural integrity of his jersey was compromised in the first half). The Wolverines led by as many as 15 with 5:53 left and were not threatened after that, posting 1.26 PPP, the most Minnesota has allowed this season.
What would you do with Ryan Evans?
by Ken Pomeroy on Tuesday, January 15, 2013
Wisconsin’s Ryan Evans is possibly the first person to forget how to shoot free throws. Evans has gone from shooting 73% as a junior to 38% as a senior. I have data going back to 2005 and there are just two cases of a player seeing even a 20% decrease in their free throw shooting in consecutive seasons (minimum 100 FTA’s in both seasons). Nobody has done worse than a 22% drop.
Normally, I’m rather reluctant to accuse a player of being in a slump. In any of the shooting stats where there’s always a significant chance of success or failure in any single attempt, there’s the potential for stretches of good and bad shooting that have little to do with a change in a player’s form. So reviewing a player’s stroke after a 1-for-10 night isn’t usually the best use of a coach’s or player’s time.
Defending KO…again
Ugh. I never thought I’d be writing two posts in the span of two weeks defending Kevin O’Neill. Let me just make it clear, yet again, that I think O’Neill was a bad hire and I have never understood the infatuation many people have with his skills as a head coach. Nonetheless, he was hired by USC and until yesterday was the head coach of its basketball program. I’m also not philosophically-opposed to mid-season firings. There are reasons to relieve a coach of his duties mid-season that are healthy for both the coach and the program he is being separated from. (An expanded defense is here.)
Weekend in Review: Ole Miss has arrived
by Ken Pomeroy on Monday, January 14, 2013
The 3 most appealing games (according to FanMatchTM):
1) Ohio State 56, Michigan 53 [60] (Sunday) During Michigan’s unbeaten streak, they were never really threatened. They trailed at halftime only once and never trailed by more than eight at any point in any game. The Buckeyes owned the first 14 minutes, jumping out to a 29-8 lead, but the Wolverines responded, eventually drawing even in the second half. In the end, Ohio State emerged on the good side of a close decision, and this game didn’t change much about my opinion of either team. Michigan won’t be invincible on the road and Ohio State relies too much on Deshaun Thomas offensively.