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    Small upgrade to team page

    by Ken Pomeroy on Monday, December 31, 2012


    One of the more annoying things about preparing for a game is figuring out which players are available for action. I’ve made a small but useful change to the player stats section on the team page to help interested parties figure this out. Players that have missed their team’s last game have their game total highlighted in red. If a player has missed his team’s last three games, I pull all of the HTML tricks out of the bag and make the game red and bolded.

    Read more...

    Weekend in Review: Home court advantage wins the day

    The 3 most appealing games (according to FanMatchTM):
    1) North Carolina 79, UNLV 73 [72]. (Saturday) Nice win for the Tar Heels, especially without Reggie Bullock. A win Sunday at Virginia will be more impressive but probably get less fanfare. I can feel a post coming on about how the media undervalues the invisible powers of home-court advantage.

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    Week in Review: Abbreviated

    by Ken Pomeroy on Friday, December 28, 2012


    There were only 15 games played this week, thus there’s limited action to review…

    The 3 2 most appealing games (according to FanMatchTM):
    1) Arizona 68, San Diego State 67 [68]. (Tuesday) The Wildcats got a game-saving block from Nick Johnson on Chase Tapley’s lay-up with three second to go to seal the win. Jamaal Franklin took just six shots, equaling the lowest number over the past two seasons, but the Aztecs still found a way to have a productive offensive game. They made their free throws (15-of-18) and their twos (20-of-38). Still, it wasn’t quite enough against an Arizona team that got to the line more (19-of-27) and committed just eight turnovers.

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    Preseason ratings: Why weight?

    by Ken Pomeroy on Wednesday, December 26, 2012


    Now that nearly every team has played at least 10 games, one might think we have enough data to form an accurate assessment of any team based on what they have done on the court this season. Then why have still have the influence of pre-season ratings in the ratings? Because you actually don’t have enough data to work with. Whatever opinion you had of a team before the games started being played still has some predictive value.

    To illustrate this, I looked at the teams that had deviated the most from their preseason rating at this time last season. For instance, shown below are the ten teams that exceeded their preseason rating the most heading into the 2011 Christmas break, listed with their preseason rank and their ranking on December 24.

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    Weekend in Review: Bring the ‘stache back

    by Ken Pomeroy on Sunday, December 23, 2012


    The 3 most appealing games (according to FanMatchTM):
    1) Kansas 74, Ohio State 66 [72]. (Saturday) Deshaun Thomas took just four two-point shots, his fewest total of the season, as Kansas held Ohio State under a point per possession for the third time in the last 12.5 months. That’s the Jeff Withey Effect.

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    Diamond Head Classic log5

    by Ken Pomeroy on Saturday, December 22, 2012


    The Diamond Head Classic (bracket) tips off today in Honolulu, with semi-final action continuing Sunday and the title game slated for Christmas. It’s really the ultimate in top-heavy fields, with four possible at-large teams and four others who most certainly will not be at-large teams. So the first round may not be all that compelling, but the semis and final game will provide some useful data points. And while the first round features four mismatches, there’s still a 41% of at least one of the favorites being upset according to this analysis.

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    Week in Review: Believe in Barnes

    by Ken Pomeroy on Friday, December 21, 2012


    The 3 most appealing games (according to FanMatchTM):
    1) Texas 85, North Carolina 67 [81]. (Wednesday) As usual, a high point total draws attention to UNC’s defense. Giving up 85 points to Texas is nothing to be proud of, but the game did have 81 possessions. Let’s give a jersey pop to the Texas defense. The Longhorns got some help from UNC’s occasional sloppiness early in the game, but their D has been very consistent this season, not allowing a point per possession to a D-I team yet.

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    Why I don’t believe in clutchness*

    by Ken Pomeroy on Wednesday, December 19, 2012


    Sometime in the last week or two, and I seriously don’t remember when, I was watching a broadcast and it was mentioned that one of the participating teams tracks how well it shoots free throws in the last five minutes. I don’t think I heard an explanation of why they were doing it. It could have been for something as innocuous as a blurb in the media notes or something like that. But if it was for anything more serious then it was a waste of time. To illustrate that, let’s consider the three possible things that would be learned from such efforts.

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    Weekend in Review: The head-to-head fallacy strikes again

    by Ken Pomeroy on Monday, December 17, 2012


    The 3 most appealing games (according to FanMatchTM):
    1) Arizona 65, Florida 64 [59]. (Saturday) ‘Twas a low-scoring game, but not necessarily a defensive battle since there were only 59 possessions. For the AP voters that are going to put Arizona above Florida this week (which is almost all of you, I’m guessing), it’s worth reading about the head-to-head fallacy. You’re judgment is basically the opposite of history and you’re only defense is that the AP made you sign an oath stating “I don’t believe in home-court advantage”.

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    Box scores

    by Ken Pomeroy on Friday, December 14, 2012


    Box scores have been added to the site. They are linked to the scores on each team’s page. Let’s get this out of the way first: They are only available for this season and will likely never be available for any previous seasons. If you’re a seasoned user of advanced statistics, then the data doesn’t need much explanation. For the rest of you, here goes…

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