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    Introducing 3-Point Score

    by Drew Cannon on Monday, July 30, 2012


    If you ask yourself one day, “Who’s the best defensive rebounder in the country?”, what do you do? Well, you click over to the Kenpom defensive rebounding percentage leaderboards. The guy who’s first isn’t necessarily the answer, but even with some serious teammate and opponent troubles, it’s tough for that top guy to escape the top ten or fifteen. If you ask yourself, “Who’s the best shotblocker?”, the same is true. There’s a statistic built to answer that specific question.

    So what statistic answers the question, “Who’s the best three-point shooter in the country?”

    Well, it’s not three-point percentage. Let’s set the bar at, say, a minimum of 100 three-point attempts, and look at last season’s three-point percentage leaders.

    Read more...

    The maths on Ernie Els’ comeback

    by Ken Pomeroy on Monday, July 23, 2012


    That piece of wisdom, offered after Adam Scott birdied the 14th hole yesterday and led Ernie Els by four shots, didn’t turn out so well. In truth, at this point my hastily-developed model gave Els a 1.1% chance of winning as he stood on the 17th tee. That was close enough to over for my taste. After Scott lost, I didn’t trust the voo-doo of a computer program, even if it my own voo-doo. How improbable was Ernie Els’ lifting the Claret Jug on Sunday afternoon?

    It was pretty clear Els’ chances were remote after he settled for par on 16. No player in the field was able to play the last two holes in -2—only four players on Sunday recorded…

    Read more...

    Comments on 2012 freshman projections: Part 3

    by Drew Cannon on Thursday, July 12, 2012


    [Drew is in the midst of a three-part series to critique his statistical projections of the ESPNU Top 100 incoming freshmen. Last Thursday, he handled prospects headed to the ACC or Big East. Monday, he tackled the Big Ten and Big 12. Today, he concludes with the Pac-12, SEC, and everybody else.]

    Pac-12

    Arizona

    Kaleb Tarczewski, #4, 7’0 C, St. Mark’s (Claremont, NH)
                             ORtg %Pos OR/DR% A% TO%  B/S% FC/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA%
    Projection               101   21  11/18   6  20  8/2   4.7   53 57% 52% 12%   3%
    Grant Jerrett, #9, 6’10 PF, La Verne (CA) Lutheran
                       G/Min ORtg %Pos OR/DR% A% TO%  B/S% FC/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA%
    Projection               101   20  12/17   8  18  6/2   4.5   47 58% 50% 22%   9%
    Oakland Soldiers  21/463 109   30  11/17   4  19  5/1   6.0   71 71% 53% 22%   4%
    Brandon Ashley, #16, 6’8 PF, Findlay Prep (Oakland, CA)
                             ORtg %Pos OR/DR% A% TO%  B/S% FC/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA%
    Projection               103   21  11/16   8  18  4/2   4.3   45 64% 50% 25%  12%
    Gabe York, #65, 6’1 SG, Orange (CA) Lutheran
                             ORtg %Pos OR/DR% A% TO%  B/S% FC/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA%
    Projection                97   19   5/10  14  19  2/2   3.5   28 64% 45% 29%  42%

    York, in all likelihood, will be backing up Mark Lyons and Nick Johnson. (Solomon Hill, while we’re here, had an outstanding Kevin Durant Skills Academy a week or so back.) I can’t imagine getting all three five-star bigs on the floor at the same time, so my money’s on Tarczewski and Ashley starting – Jerrett’s lagging a bit behind them in physical development. I’d adjust Jerrett’s assist and (all) shooting numbers up a couple notches, and his possession percentage down a bit. He’s more skilled and less physically ready than the projection system thinks. Tarczewski’s numbers look good. Ashley is more ball-dominant and more foul-prone than the projections show – I’d expect him to use at least 23-24 percent of the Wildcats’ possessions, and use them less efficiently than the projections expect. And Ashley’s no threat to take that many three-pointers.

    Read more...

    Comments on 2012 freshman projections: Part 2

    by Drew Cannon on Monday, July 9, 2012


    [Drew is in the midst of a three-part series to critique his statistical projections of the ESPNU Top 100 incoming freshmen. Last Thursday, he handled prospects headed to the ACC or Big East. Today, he tackles the Big Ten and Big 12. On Thursday, he’ll take care of the rest.]

    Big Ten

    Indiana

    Yogi Ferrell, #24, 5’11 PG, Park Tudor (Greenfield, IN)
                             ORtg %Pos OR/DR% A% TO%  B/S% FC/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA%
    Projection               105   23   3/8   25  22  1/3   3.0   41 74% 47% 34%  38%
    Jeremy Hollowell, #42, 6’7 SF, Lawrence Central (Indianapolis, IN)
                             ORtg %Pos OR/DR% A% TO%  B/S% FC/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA%
    Projection                99   19   7/14  10  19  3/2   3.8   34 66% 49% 26%  28%
    Hanner Mosquera-Perea, #71, 6’8 PF, La Lumiere (La Porte, IN)
                             ORtg %Pos OR/DR% A% TO%  B/S% FC/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA%
    Projection                98   17  11/16   7  20  5/1   5.0   41 57% 49% 25%  12%

    Mosquera-Perea and Hollowell’s numbers all look pretty good, and they’re unlikely to see much playing time. Ferrell should start and be very successful right away – his projection looks solid, as well, actually.

    Read more...

    Comments on 2012 freshman projections: Part 1

    by Drew Cannon on Thursday, July 5, 2012


    A couple weeks ago, I left you with some crude freshman projections for the ESPNU Top 100. Today, I’m here to fine-tune them some. Forty-eight of the hundred took part in the 2011 Nike Elite Youth Basketball League, for which I’ve compiled advanced statistics. Worth knowing about those stats: The typical possession’s worth about 1.1 points, rather than the 1.0 we tend to see in college and the pros. Those are here next to the projections, then I’ll discuss what we should actually expect from each player. Today: The ACC and Big East. Monday: The Big Ten and Big 12. Next Thursday: Everyone else.

    ACC

    Clemson

    Jaron Blossomgame, #94, 6’7 SF, Chattahoochee (Alpharetta, GA)
                       G/Min ORtg %Pos OR/DR% A% TO%  B/S% FC/40 FTR FT% 2P% 3P% 3PA%
    Projection                94   17   7/13   9  21  3/2   4.0   38 59% 48% 25%  29%
    Georgia Stars     22/446 124   22   9/18   7  13  2/1   3.0   54 63% 65% 27%   9%

    Blossomgame’s ability to play the big man can be underrated. He’ll board better than this and make more twos. He’ll probably play a backup forward role to seniors Jennings and Booker, but he’ll play an effective one.

    Read more...