by Drew Cannon on Monday, June 18, 2012
[Note: Drew Cannon has been working on projecting freshman performance using a combination of stats and some subjective measures. You know Drew from his work at Basketball Prospectus and ESPN Insider. He’ll be posting occasionally throughout the summer, and maybe longer. Please note the bylines going forward. - Ken]
I’ve gone and made advanced stats projections for the ESPNU Top 100 freshmen for next season. All the info that went in is player-specific rather than team-specific, so Mo Watson’s numbers aren’t adjusted for the easier schedule he’ll face in the America East conference, Jordan Price’s numbers don’t reflect the larger load of the offense he’ll have to take since he’s at Auburn, and Josh Scott’s rebounding numbers aren’t affected by the fact that he’ll be fighting Andre Roberson on the glass.
Right now, these projections aren’t particularly complicated. I don’t try to figure out minutes, for example. And…
by Ken Pomeroy on Monday, June 11, 2012
Even if you have no interest in boxing (like me) you’ve heard about the bizarre decision by the judges of the Manny Pacquiao/Tim Bradley fight on Saturday night. Despite nearly everybody believing Pacquiao won the 12-round fight convincingly, two of the three judges gave the fight to Bradley prompting disbelief among observers. This caused me to wonder just how unlikely such a decision was. (Disclaimer: I know next to nothing about boxing and didn’t watch the fight. If I henceforth sound completely ignorant regarding the sport, you know why.)
In order to determine this I wanted to get an estimate of how likely it was for the rational judge to score a particular round for either fighter. I found 18 reporters of varying reputation that scored the fight round-by-round. Here’s how many of those people gave each round to Bradley.
Rd 1: 8 Rd 2: 2 Rd 3: 0 Rd…
by Ken Pomeroy on Friday, June 8, 2012
I try to measure skills based on the opportunities for those skills to be observed. On the team level, this often means ratings the offense (and defense) on points scored (and allowed) per possession. That is the basis for the ratings system. If you’re looking for info on what the columns mean on the ratings mean, please continue. If you don’t like the ratings, wonder why I have your team too low, or wonder why the ratings don’t look like the AP top 25, go here. (For information on preseason ratings, see this and this.)