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    Predicting John Henson’s free throw percentage

    by Ken Pomeroy on Monday, September 26, 2011


    Last season, North Carolina’s John Henson made 47.9% of his 142 free throw attempts. What is a reasonable expectation for Henson’s free throw percentage this season?

    One way to make a prediction is to look at players with a similar free throw percentage in a single season and see how they performed in the following season. Since 2005, there have been 24 players that have shot at least 120 free throws in a season, were within four percentage points of Henson’s accuracy and took at least 100 free throws the following season.

    This is that group sorted by the player’s free throw percentage in the following season:

    Read more...

    Eligible transfers 2012

    by Ken Pomeroy on Tuesday, September 20, 2011


    For the second straight year I am pleased to present a list of transfers who are eligible to play at the Division-I level this season. Players are listed only if they have previous significant experience (minimum 10% of possible minutes) with a different D-I team. Once again, my sincere thanks go to Nic Reiner-Parra for compiling this list with an assist from collegehoopsupdate.com.

    You may wonder why such a list needs to exist. For one thing, it can be a handy reference. But also, one day we’ll attempt to do statistical translations for transferring players. So you’ll know what a seldom-used player at Wofford should be expected to do when he transfers to Gardner-Webb. Whether or not you realize it now, you will want to know that.

    As always, *‘s are listed next to players who are not eligible in the first semester. Let me know if…

    Read more...

    Free Tim Williams

    by Ken Pomeroy on Thursday, September 1, 2011


    When the player history pages were introduced a few weeks ago, my hope was that they would become something more than just a listing of a player’s advanced stats during his career. Ideally, it would provide you with a complete description of the player’s role and abilities. Today represents a small step towards that ideal as I’ve added player comparables to those pages. This is a tool I’ve had in spreadsheet form for a few years and was previously described here.

    Basically, the tool finds the five players with the stats most similar to the player being examined. There’s a more complete description at basketball-reference.com although my formulation differs slightly from theirs. I’m including the following 13 stats using the relative influence of each listed.

    Team Rating (4x)
    %Poss (4x)
    Off Rating (3x)
    OR% (3x)
    DR% (3x)

    Read more...