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    Fran Dunphy refused to be the dealer

    by Ken Pomeroy on Tuesday, March 22, 2011


    It is not easy to pull off upsets in the NCAA tournament. Despite claims that there is more parity in college basketball this season, the first two rounds of this season’s tournament did not provide any more upsets than last year. (The average seed of the remaining 16 teams is exactly the same as last year.) However, there was perhaps one less upset than there could have been because one coach turned down a terrific opportunity to tilt the playing field in his team’s favor.

    After San Diego State’s Malcolm Thomas converted a three-point play with two minutes left in overtime, Temple had the basketball with the score tied 61-61. In any upset bid, a team needs some things to go its way, and the following sequence would be extremely beneficial to the Owls’ chances of winning. Temple would work the clock until a questionable foul was called…

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    Log5 vs. seeds

    by Ken Pomeroy on Sunday, March 13, 2011


    (Now updated for Sunday’s events)

    With conference tourney season over today, it’s a good time to review how log5 performed and it outperformed seeding pretty well. Teams given the best chance to win its tourney by log5 won

    12 15 times heading into Sunday, while the top seeds won just seven eight. No one-seed deemed an underdog by log5 has won a tourney yet, although North Carolina or Florida could change that today

    .

    Don’t get too carried away chalking tournament events up to increased parity. The lack of one-seeds winning tourneys was probably as much due to the best teams occasionally not getting one-seeds as it was to there being more parity.


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    When will Jimmer regress to the mean?

    by Ken Pomeroy on Saturday, March 12, 2011


    Jimmer Fredette’s 52-point outburst yesterday against New Mexico in the Mountain West Conference semi-finals obviously highlighted his ability to score, but it also continued an upward trend on his ability to take shots. Since Brandon Davies went down, Fredette has taken a whopping 47% of BYU’s shots while he’s in the game. That the kind of involvement that’s unsustainable over the long haul – or is it?

    On the season, Fredette took 36.9% of BYU’s shots entering the tournament, which ranked him third in the country. Maintaining a level close to 50% over the course of a season would be unthinkable, but perhaps it’s possible over the course of a month under unusual circumstances. Brandon Davies was the Cougars second-most frequent shooter and Fredette has taken on almost all of the shots Davies’ left behind. Fredette’s done it for four games with mixed results. Obviously, the results against the…

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    The kPOY: The almost final countdown

    by Ken Pomeroy on Wednesday, March 9, 2011


    I’ll be back on April 7 to crown the national kPOY as well as each conference’s (and independents!) kPOY’s as well. There’s definitely going to be suspense depending on how BYU, Duke, Ohio State, and Purdue play the rest of the way, so be sure to tune in. Thanks for all of your interest in this season’s award!

    Standings through Monday’s games. For those new here, this is an explanation of the kPOY.)

    1. Jimmer Fredette, Brigham Young (Rating of .525, last week: 1st)
    2. Nolan Smith, Duke (.506, LW: 2nd)
    3. Jared Sullinger, Ohio St. (.502, LW: 4th)
    4. JaJuan Johnson, Purdue (.499, LW: 3rd)
    5. Jon Leuer, Wisconsin (.443, LW: 5th)
    6. Jordan Hamilton, Texas (.429, LW: 6th)
    7. Kawhi Leonard, San Diego St. (.417, LW: 10th)
    8. Terrence Jones, Kentucky (.402, LW: 9th)
    9. E’Twaun Moore, Purdue…

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    On overvaluing road play (again)

    by Ken Pomeroy on Monday, March 7, 2011


    There were a couple of interesting pieces last week related to the importance of road play in evaluating a team’s postseason prospects. But both left me unconvinced that anyone should be emphasizing road play in particular when evaluating a team’s ability.

    First, there was a piece by Graham Watson at The Dagger (Will poor road teams buck NCAA Tournament trend?) which cited the fact that teams entering the NCAA tournament with a poor road record do not win many games. Of course they don’t – all of the examples were seeded seventh or worse. A little additional analysis might have changed the tone of the piece altogether. Teams seeded like those listed in the piece would have been expected to win 6.5 games (using Pete Tiernan’s PASE concept). They won eight, which is hardly an indictment of the heart/guts/will of teams that had a poor road record.

    The…

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    The kPOY: Let tournament play begin

    by Ken Pomeroy on Wednesday, March 2, 2011


    Jimmer Fredette expanded his lead further last week, due mostly to his team’s ascension in the rankings. The Wooden and Naismith are going to go to Fredette and it’s looking increasing likely the kPOY will as well. For all the fuss over Fredette’s dip in efficiency, what’s been lost is his in increase in usage. He’s risen to third nationally, and with center Brandon Davies dismissed from the team, taking the national lead may be possible.

    (Standings through Sunday’s games. For those new here, this is an explanation of the kPOY.)

    1. Jimmer Fredette, Brigham Young (Rating of .567, last week: 1st)
    2. Nolan Smith, Duke (.516, LW: 2nd)
    3. JaJuan Johnson, Purdue (.512, LW: 4th)
    4. Jared Sullinger, Ohio St. (.493, LW: 3rd)
    5. Jon Leuer, Wisconsin (.477, LW: 5th)
    6. Jordan Hamilton, Texas (.455, LW: 6th)
    7. E’Twaun Moore, Purdue…

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