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    The ten unlikeliest wins in the 2010 season, part 2

    by Ken Pomeroy on Wednesday, July 7, 2010


    Let’s continue the countdown of the least likely victories from the past season…

    #5
    The Game: Austin Peay at Akron, November 15.
    The Situation: Akron 72, Austin Peay 57, 7:36 left, Austin Peay ball. (1.6%)
    The Outcome: Austin Peay 80, Akron 77
    The Quote: “First off, when you’re up 15 points with 7:36 to play, you should win the game. We can say whatever, we can blame the players or me but I thought today we did a very poor job of handling prosperity first and adversity second.” – Akron head coach Keith Dambrot

    I think it was Tony Robbins who said that if you can’t handle prosperity or adversity, you are not likely to be very successful. But all things considered, the season opener isn’t a bad time to produce an epic collapse. There are always about 30 more games to make amends, and…

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    The ten unlikeliest wins in the 2010 season, part 1

    by Ken Pomeroy on Tuesday, July 6, 2010


    With a nearly complete database of win probability calculations for each possession played last season, it’s time to do something reasonably fun with the data. What follows is not a compendium of the biggest comebacks in terms of points. It is a mix of those kinds of situations and cases where an underdog spotted its opponent some points, thereby enhancing its longshot status during the game. These are the ten most improbable comebacks last season, accounting for time and score, as well as the difference in ability between the opponents.

    #10
    The Game: San Diego State at Wyoming, January 9. (Highlights)
    The Situation: San Diego State 75, Wyoming 61, 4:47 left (San Diego State ball) (1.8% chance of winning)
    The Outcome: Wyoming 85, San Diego State 83.
    The Quote: “We just weren’t quite tough enough to weather the storm, and when teams get…

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