Follow me on twitter

Most recent entries

  • Your 2014 kPOY: Russ Smith
  • Tourney scoring up; pace down
  • Who’s the best in-game coach?
  • This was the best year in history for free-throw shooting
  • Sweet 16 log5
  • Draw trumps seeding
  • 2014 NCAA tournament log5
  • Big West log5
  • WAC log5
  • Sun Belt log5
  • Favorites


    Hoops
  • Murray State and variance
  • Play-by-play Theater: earliest disqualification
  • Predicting John Henson's free throw percentage
  • Can Derrick Williams set the three-point accuracy record?
  • Why I won't give up on Washington (or Kentucky)
  • On overvaluing road play (again)
  • One shining e-mail
  • A treatise on plus-minus
  • The preseason AP poll is great
  • Non-hoops
  • Just how crazy was the Pacquiao/Bradley decision?
  • You have no skill at betting on NFL games
  • The case for Tiger Woods
  • Replaying Isner/Mahut a million times
  • The Majerus Files
  • Rick Majerus: awesome coach
  • Majerus does the unthinkable...again
  • Let's play four
  • One day at a time
  • Monthly Archives

  • April 2014
  • March 2014
  • February 2014
  • January 2014
  • December 2013
  • November 2013
  • October 2013
  • September 2013
  • August 2013
  • July 2013
  • June 2013
  • May 2013
  • April 2013
  • March 2013
  • February 2013
  • January 2013
  • December 2012
  • November 2012
  • October 2012
  • September 2012
  • August 2012
  • July 2012
  • June 2012
  • May 2012
  • April 2012
  • March 2012
  • February 2012
  • January 2012
  • December 2011
  • November 2011
  • October 2011
  • September 2011
  • August 2011
  • July 2011
  • June 2011
  • April 2011
  • March 2011
  • February 2011
  • January 2011
  • December 2010
  • November 2010
  • October 2010
  • August 2010
  • July 2010
  • June 2010
  • May 2010
  • April 2010
  • March 2010
  • February 2010
  • January 2010
  • December 2009
  • November 2009
  • October 2009
  • July 2009
  • February 2009
  • January 2009
  • December 2008
  • November 2008
  • October 2007
  • September 2007
  • July 2007
  • June 2007
  • May 2007
  • April 2007
  • March 2007
  • February 2007
  • January 2007
  • December 2006
  • November 2006
  • October 2006
  • September 2006
  • August 2006
  • July 2006
  • June 2006
  • May 2006
  • April 2006
  • March 2006
  • February 2006
  • January 2006
  • December 2005
  • November 2005
  • October 2005
  • September 2005
  • August 2005
  • July 2005
  • June 2005
  • May 2005
  • April 2005
  • March 2005
  • February 2005
  • January 2005
  • December 2004
  • November 2004
  • October 2004
  • September 2004
  • August 2004
  • July 2004
  • June 2004
  • May 2004
  • April 2004
  • March 2004
  • February 2004
  • January 2004
  • December 2003
  • November 2003

  • RSS feed

    A bad game for WP

    by Ken Pomeroy on Tuesday, April 13, 2010


    The 2010 title game was pretty boring from a win probability perspective. So much so, that I questioned whether my code was working correctly at halftime of my live WP experiment. As it turned out, I almost picked the worst possible game for semi-live win probability to make its debut.

    It seemed unusual for a game to played entirely within an eight-point range. Duke led by no more than 6 points and Butler by no more than two for the entire game. That got me to thinking about how that stacked up with the 5700+ other games played last season.

    Theoretically, a game must have at least a three-point range (assuming there’s a made three-pointer in the game). But there’s not much room between the eight-point range seen in the title game and the theoretical minimum.

    So how many games had a smaller scoring range last…

    Read more...

    One shining e-mail

    by Ken Pomeroy on Monday, April 5, 2010


    This will have to stand as representative of the many e-mails that my computer received in February and March from people claiming their eyes were soooo much better. A computer has to vent, sometimes, and in light of recent events, my computer finds the subject matter especially amusing.

    from Somebody
    to .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address)
    date Tue, Feb 16, 2010 at 10:42 AM
    subject Skewed....

    Ken,
    I spent many years as a sportswriter…

    Read more...

    Semi-live win probabilities tonight

    I’ve created a crude graph on which I plan to plot in-game win probabilities for the title game. (It looks best in something other than Chrome.) I’ve updated my methodology so that I can plot the win probability for the beginning of every possession during the game. I’ll attempt to update the plot at each TV timeout (hence “semi-live”). It’s probably not worth much in the last 2 minutes if the game is close. We’ll see how it goes.


    Read more...

    In-game win probabilities

    by Ken Pomeroy on Saturday, April 3, 2010


    Remember when Billy Packer declared the 2008 Final Four game between Kansas and North Carolina over? Billy got a bit of blowback for that, especially after UNC was able to pull within four points midway through the second half. I always felt like Billy was on safe ground with his statement. Granted, I supposed “over” taken literally means that there was no chance of the game becoming interesting. I took it to mean UNC had no chance of winning, although of course there was some small chance of winning. But just how safe was Billy’s statement?

    Previous attempts to quantify in-game win probabilities in college basketball are limited and have left me unsatisfied because none of them accounted for information known before the game starts. For instance, if Kansas and Alcorn State were tied five minutes into a game, we could come up with a better estimate than just…

    Read more...