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    Charting Day 2

    by Ken Pomeroy on Saturday, March 17, 2007


    So, round 1 was a dud. But it makes us appreciate that none of this is staged, doesn’t it?

    Virginia 84, Albany 57 [58 possessions]. In the first 7 vs. 15 game in history, the 7-seed wins easily. Considering what Connecticut went through last season, it’s an encouraging win for the Cavaliers.

    UNLV 67, Georgia Tech 63 [59?]. Potential Final Four team goes down! For some reason I thought Will Bynum and BJ Elder were still around. Oh well, at least a couple others out publicly picked “Not Florida”, but yet made an intelligent selection. I’ll do better next year. How did this game end up so slow? I’ll tell you - crazy offensive rebounding on both ends. Both teams were able to grab over 50% of their own misses to cheat the shot clock and create multiple lengthy possessions. Useless trivia: Paul Hewitt’s substitutions equaled…

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    Charting Day 1

    by Ken Pomeroy on Friday, March 16, 2007


    Possessions estimated unless HD data available.

    Boston College 84, Texas Tech 75 [62 possessions]. The flex offense is right up there with the Princeton in terms of potency. But it just seems like the Eagles intentionally take off possessions defensively. I’d like to think this catches up with you eventually. Or, like, on Saturday, when you have to play a devastating offensive team.

    Maryland 82, Davidson 70 [80!]. Maryland officially becomes “dangerous”. Their D hasn’t had a bad game in a long time, and their offense has the kind of balance that should scare any team not named the Hurricanes. Nice effort by Davidson, and we’ll hear more from Stephen Curry for sure.

    Louisville 78, Stanford 58 [69]. Terrence Williams: 4 FGA’s and 4 assists. That’s a recipe for success. Folks that have Louisville in the Final Four, you have my admiration. Were they playing any other 3-seed…

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    Florida Isn’t Going to the Final Four

    by Ken Pomeroy on Thursday, March 15, 2007


    You’ll recall last year at this time, I went a little postal on how many experts were forecasting a Duke/UConn final, when such a game was much more of a longshot than the pundits’ unanimity suggested.

    The gutless wonders out there picking a Duke/UConn final make me laugh. I mean that could happen, but it’s not as likely as a lot of people are making it out to be.

    Geez. Relax, man.

    But looking at this years predictions, I can’t help but feel some deja vu. Here’s how the 22 experts on ESPN.com, SI.com, and CBS Sportsline picked the Final Four.

    West: UCLA 11, Kansas 10, Virginia Tech 1
    South: Texas A&M 11, Ohio St. 8, Memphis 2, Virginia 1
    East: Georgetown 11, UNC 9, Texas 2
    Midwest: Florida 22

    88 Final Four teams picked and exactly six outside of…

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    Bracket Breakdown: South/East

    by Ken Pomeroy on Wednesday, March 14, 2007


    I’ve been under the weather, so I’m not in the mood to write much. Fortunately, these two regions are not very complicated.

    First, the South:

     2nd Rd Sweet16 Elite8 Final4 Finals Champs 1 Ohio St. 98.62% 82.16% 68.80% 41.49% 21.00% 11.32% 3 Texas A&M 95.07% 70.87% 46.80% 27.35% 13.31% 6.91% 2 Memphis 98.03% 73.77% 34.47% 16.88% 6.59% 2.76% 6 Louisville 71.81% 23.52% 10.88% 4.33% 1.31% 0.43% 5 Tennessee 87.40% 51.42% 12.43% 3.29% 0.68% 0.15% 9 Xavier 61.50% 12.37% 6.84% 1.89% 0.41% 0.09% 10 Creighton 67.29% 20.26% 5.54% 1.68% 0.37% 0.09% 4 Virginia 89.61% 44.80% 9.40% 2.15% 0.38% 0.07% 8 BYU 38.50% 5.37% 2.36% 0.46% 0.07% 0.01% 11 Stanford 28.19% 4.89% 1.29% 0.29% 0.05% 0.01% 7 Nevada 32.71% 5.85% 0.94% 0.18% 0.02% 0.00% 12 LB St 12.60% 2.48% 0.12% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 14 Pennsylvania 4.93% 0.72% 0.08% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 13 Albany 10.39% 1.30% 0.04% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 16 C.… 
    

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    Bracket Breakdown: Midwest/West

    by Ken Pomeroy on Tuesday, March 13, 2007


    Welcome to the kenpom.com Bracket Breakdown, a Boeheim-free zone. Log5 analysis is treated as gospel here, but I acknowledge that it’s not the answer to all of your bracket issues.

    First up the Midwest Region:

     2nd Rd Sweet16 Elite8 Final4 Finals Champs 1 Florida 99.72% 78.61% 56.54% 37.69% 21.07% 10.85% 2 Wisconsin 95.91% 68.27% 48.17% 25.15% 12.31% 5.45% 4 Maryland 86.42% 62.76% 26.04% 13.59% 5.64% 2.07% 6 Notre Dame 80.30% 47.69% 18.95% 6.86% 2.29% 0.66% 10 Georgia Tech 69.95% 25.14% 13.87% 5.07% 1.72% 0.50% 3 Oregon 86.02% 44.35% 15.76% 5.08% 1.51% 0.38% 5 Butler 72.39% 27.39% 7.13% 2.48% 0.65% 0.14% 9 Purdue 50.52% 10.89% 4.67% 1.70% 0.47% 0.11% 8 Arizona 49.48% 10.50% 4.45% 1.61% 0.44% 0.10% 7 UNLV 30.05% 6.16% 2.17% 0.45% 0.09% 0.01% 12 Old Dominion 27.61% 5.63% 0.70% 0.12% 0.02% 0.00% 11 Winthrop 19.70% 5.66% 0.84% 0.11% 0.01% 0.00% 13 Davidson 13.58% 4.21% 0.47% 0.07% 0.01% 0.00%… 
    

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    Preview of a Preview

    by Ken Pomeroy on Monday, March 12, 2007


    The Bracket Breakdown featuring log5 computations will commence tomorrow with the Midwest and West regions and continue Wednesday with the East and South. (Sneak preview: there are 10 teams with at least a 2% chance of winning it all if loyal reader Kevin Picklesimer’s calculations are correct.) I always pity the folks that are required to give instant reactions to the field because I need about 24 hours to process things.

    Overall, I like what the committee did. My biggest beef is the overseeded (4)Virginia/(5)Tennessee/(12)Long Beach State/(13)Albany pod. I don’t get how one can defend seeding any of those teams that high, but one of them will get to the second week.

    A couple of housekeeping notes: fellow rater Mike Greenfield is again running BracketBrains and if you want to test out how certain variables might influence tournament match-ups, then go sign up!

    Also, for those that have…

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    Final Tally

    by Ken Pomeroy on Saturday, March 10, 2007


    Here’s the complete list of how teams with no rest fared the past two days. Overall, there was a slight underperformance.

    Fatigued Team Rested Team Expected Outcome Villanova Georgetown L,61-65(33%) L,57-62 Syracuse Notre Dame L,78-80(42%) L,83-89 West Virginia Louisville L,64-66(38%) L,71-82 2OT Marquette Pitt L,64-67(36%) L,79-89 Cal UCLA L,59-71(10%) W,76-69 OT Washington Washington St. L,63-67(34%) L,64-74 Dayton Xavier L,64-75(15%) L,51-72 Fordham Rhode Island W,69-68(52%) L,69-73 St. Louis UMass L,62-69(23%) W,74-71 OT St. Joseph's George Wash. L,63-65(44%) L,48-58 E. Michgan Toledo L,62-72(16%) L,54-62 Ohio Miami L,60-61(44%) L,51-70 C. Michigan Akron L,60-75( 5%) L,53-82 W. Michigan Kent St. L,65-69(34%) L,66-75 Rice Central Fla. L,61-79( 5%) W,53-51 Southern Miss Houston L,68-70(43%) L,59-62 Marshall Memphis L,58-82( 2%) L,71-92 Tulsa Tulane W,69-66(64%) L,56-58 Kentucky Miss. St. W,74-71(60%) L,82-84 OT Arkansas Vanderbilt W,71-68(62%) W,72-71 Georgia Florida L,65-74(20%) L,57-74 LSU Ole Miss W,67-64(64%) L,60-80 Oklahoma Kansas L,58-68(15%) L,47-64 Texas Tech Kansas St. L,68-69(44%) L,45-66 Okla. St. Texas… 
    

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    No Rest, No Problem?

    by Ken Pomeroy on Friday, March 9, 2007


    Several people, including myself, have noted that the log5 prediction formula doesn’t account for the situation of a fatigued team having to play a fresh team. It seems like a plausible idea, but looking at yesterday’s action, the jury’s still out.

    The predictions below are based on yesterday’s ratings involving games where only one team had played the day before. And while only two wins were predicted for the fatigued bunch, we’d expect about five based on the sum of the win percentages. In aggregate, fatigued teams slightly underperformed, winning two or three fewer games than expected (although two of the fatigued winners were very unexpected). However, the average score wasn’t much different than expected.

    I’ll update this for the 15 games that fall into this category today.

    Fatigued Team Rested Team Pred Outcome Villanova Georgetown L,61-65(33%) L,57-62 Syracuse Notre Dame L,78-80(42%) L,83-89 West Virginia Louisville L,64-66(38%) L,71-82… 
    

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    Tourney Preview Extravaganza

    by Ken Pomeroy on Wednesday, March 7, 2007


    Here’s a final flurry of log5 analysis dealing with tourneys that start today, except for the ACC, Big XII, and Big Ten which start tomorrow, and the WAC which started yesterday. Major ups to Kevin Haluska for providing me with the spreadsheet I was too lazy to create on my own. And thanks to everyone who has submitted one of these over the past few days.

    First the ACC, where seeds and byes don’t seem to matter…

     Qtrs Semis Finals Champ 1 UNC 100 86.0 66.0 50.8 7 Duke 90.0 69.5 45.5 17.9 5 Maryland 92.4 68.5 23.6 13.7 6 Ga. Tech 88.6 56.1 27.8 8.7 3 Va. Tech 100 41.9 15.7 3.4 2 UVa 100 27.8 10.2 1.8 4 BC 100 30.1 5.1 1.7 8 Clemson 54.5 8.2 3.2 1.2 9 Fla. St. 45.5 5.8 2.0 0.7 10 NC St. 10.0 2.7 0.5 0.0 11 Wake 11.4… 
    

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    MWC Preview

    by Ken Pomeroy on Tuesday, March 6, 2007


    After a 3 year stint in Denver’s mostly empty Pepsi Center, the Mountain West tourney returns to its roots on the campus of UNLV. It gets underway today with the fun-filled 8/9 exhibition.

    The reason the tournament moved from Vegas was partly due to complaints about the home court advantage enjoyed by the Rebels. Once again in 2007, home court advantage could push the Rebels over the top.

     Qtrs Semis Finals Champ 4 AFA 100 90.1 59.0 38.5 2 UNLV 100 86.3 64.4 31.5 1 BYU 100 85.0 36.8 20.3 3 SDSU 100 64.9 22.8 6.6 6 Colo St. 100 35.1 8.3 1.5 7 Utah 100 13.7 4.5 0.6 5 Wyoming 100 9.9 2.0 0.4 9 NM 67.6 12.0 1.9 0.4 8 TCU 32.4 3.0 0.3 0.0

    As usual, there’s no clear favorite in the MWC. UNLV comes in with a wildly inflated RPI (#11) and a mildly…

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