Wednesday, March 21, 2007
Do You Really Know Texas A&M?
Don’t fall into the trap that Texas A&M is led by their defense. The story with the Aggies is how incredible its offense is, especially considering how far it has come.
For the moment let’s ignore history and look at the facts in efficiency terms. A&M’s offense is just as good as its defense, but it’s not enough to say Texas A&M ranks 6th nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency and 11th in adjusted defensive efficiency. So let’s take the semi-secret adjusted part of the formula out of it and look at some raw data.
Games below national average (102.1) offensively
3/9 Oklahoma St. (neutral) 92.4
1/9 Baylor (road) 97.1
12/9 UCLA (road) 97.8
12/5 LSU (road) 84.9
Just four times has Texas A&M had what could be called a bad offensive game. I’m not going to list all of their below-average defensive games, because there are 10 of them.
Let’s look at how many times a Texas A&M opponent experienced one its five worst defensive games against the Aggies. Again, these are raw figures, and include only conference games and at-large worthy non-conference opponents.
Louisville (5th)
Missouri (2nd)
Texas (1st)
Baylor (2nd)
Oklahoma State (5th)
Oklahoma (4th)
Kansas (4th)
Winthrop (2nd)
On the opposite side, A&M had fewer standout defensive performances this season. Here are the opponents that experienced one of their five worst offensive games at the hands of the Aggies.
Oklahoma State (1st, 3rd)
Baylor (3rd)
Iowa State (1st)
Winthrop (2nd)
So whether you believe in my schedule adjustments or not, it’s pretty clear that the A&M offense deserves a little more attention. The other part of the story is that while the defense has been steady under Gillispie, the offense has made huge strides from last season.
2007 2006 adjOE 120.4 (6) 107.3 (80) eFG% 55.9 (5) 50.8(104) TO% 18.3 (36) 20.2(108) OR% 33.7(159) 29.8(247) FTR 30.3 (40) 29.3 (40)
While Acie Law gets much of the credit for the improvement, this is not a one-man show. Figures represent offensive rating and percent of possessions used.
2007 2006 Law4 115.5/27.4 104.7/25.6 Kirk 109.9/12.8 105.6/12.9 Jones 121.1/23.4 110.1/27.0 Kava 111.1/22.1 105.0/20.3 Carter 132.9/17.3 106.6/20.9
Law is better, but he’s not the only one. The front line tandem of Kavaliauskas and Jones is much more dangerous than last season. And Josh Carter is the tourney’s best remaining pure shooter (sorry, Lee Humphrey). But the interesting thing about Law is he is taking fewer 3’s. Only 19% of his shots this season are from 3, compared to 29% last season, and his free throw rate (ratio of free throw attempts to field goal attempts) is up to 44.6 from 32.7. All of that explains this…
2007 2006 2-point FG% 52.8(32) 49.1(129) 3-point FG% 42.4 (2) 36.1(100) 3PA/FGA 28.3(290) 34.6(129) A/FGM 65.6(11) 70.2 (2)
The offense is still no thing of beauty. No, wait a minute. It is a thing of beauty. A&M doesn’t shoot 3’s nearly as often any more, but when they do, they are deadly. And when they don’t, they are deadly. I put the assist rate up there also, because while you might interpret that as “not sharing the ball as well,” I interpret that as being able to score off the dribble more frequently. Which all gets back to Law, whose personal stats say is scoring off the dribble more frequently.
Not only is Texas A&M’s offense the foundation of this year’s team, but it’s the kind of offense that will cram the ball down the opponents throat over and over given the choice. Memphis is going to be the ultimate test, as opponents take few 3’s against the Tigers and shoot 2’s horribly (5th worst in the country). The Aggies haven’t faced an offensive test quite like this one, but if they pass, you’d have to put this offense in the elite category.
Monday, March 19, 2007
Tracking the Doomsday Scenario
Here are the odds on our 16-team tourney courtesy of Mr. Picklesimer.
- The chance of all four #1’s making it to Atlanta (my Doomsday Scenario) is up to 9%. If that happens, I’m not sure how I would cope. It’s comforting to know it’s still a longshot.
- The “Cinderella’s Revenge” Final Four of UNLV, Southern Illinois, Vanderbilt, and Tennessee has a .0009% chance of happening.
- Thanks to the Xavier scare and the relative improvement of the other three teams in their region, Ohio State’s chance at the national title has actually decreased despite winning twice.
- Kansas has become the team with the best chance to win it all.
- The chance of Maarty hoisting the trophy is over 1% now, although that doesn’t account for fate which is clearly on Maarty’s side.
elite8 final4 finals champ
Midwest
1 Florida 78.83 62.56 32.83 17.00
5 Butler 21.17 10.82 2.63 0.61
3 Oregon 61.41 18.29 4.87 1.24
7 UNLV 38.59 8.33 1.58 0.28
West
1 Kansas 84.20 58.85 39.08 22.71
4 Southern Illinois 15.80 4.88 1.47 0.32
3 Pittsburgh 37.32 11.05 4.45 1.37
2 UCLA 62.68 25.23 13.10 5.53
East
1 North Carolina 84.26 56.69 37.08 22.21
5 USC 15.74 4.71 1.26 0.30
6 Vanderbilt 20.41 3.76 0.88 0.18
2 Georgetown 79.59 34.83 18.66 8.97
South
1 Ohio St. 77.89 42.95 19.69 9.57
5 Tennessee 22.11 5.76 1.18 0.27
3 Texas A&M 59.11 32.41 14.42 6.81
2 Memphis 40.89 18.88 6.82 2.64
Saturday, March 17, 2007
Charting Day 2
So, round 1 was a dud. But it makes us appreciate that none of this is staged, doesn’t it?
Virginia 84, Albany 57 [58 possessions]. In the first 7 vs. 15 game in history, the 7-seed wins easily. Considering what Connecticut went through last season, it’s an encouraging win for the Cavaliers.
UNLV 67, Georgia Tech 63 [59?]. Potential Final Four team goes down! For some reason I thought Will Bynum and BJ Elder were still around. Oh well, at least a couple others out publicly picked “Not Florida”, but yet made an intelligent selection. I’ll do better next year. How did this game end up so slow? I’ll tell you - crazy offensive rebounding on both ends. Both teams were able to grab over 50% of their own misses to cheat the shot clock and create multiple lengthy possessions. Useless trivia: Paul Hewitt’s substitutions equaled Georgia Tech’s possessions.
Memphis 73, North Texas 58 [71]. A couple of teams that have toned down their running act this season, and it showed in this game which barely cracked an average pace. Interesting game of unknowns on Sunday. Nevada just played its first Pomeroy top 50 team since December 9th, and Memphis hasn’t played one since December 20th.
Winthrop 74, Notre Dame 64 [74]. Harangody-mania will have to wait another year. Actually, Luke was awful, as a -20 in 16:46 will demonstrate. He sat for the Irish comeback as Mike Brey deployed the press, then returned for Winthrop’s final run.
Tennessee 121, Long Beach State 86 [76]. In the first 6 vs. 16 game in history, the 6-seed wins easily. Hey committee, can we just go back to conventional seeding next season? Now we get the first ever 6 vs. 7 game in the second round.
Wisconsin 76, Texas A&M CC 63 [68]. The Badgers gave the Islanders a 10-minute head start in this one. Now, we might be left with the impression that Wisconsin’s offense is struggling when they score 4 points in the first 10 minutes. But they did get their act together and salvage a mildly efficient game considering the opposition. This is the only dress rehearsal you get - time to start playing like a 2-seed.
Nevada 77, Creighton 71 (OT) [73]. If this game didn’t end up close, we should have just called off the whole thing.
Oregon 58, Miami 56 [52]. Ugh! The blackout game! It was entertaining! There was a half-court buzzer-beater at the end of the game! It didn’t matter! So the 2 and 3 in the Midwest looked rather weak and my supposedly undervalued 6 and 10 seeds bowed out. Things are looking nice for Florida, huh?
Virginia Tech 54, Illinois 52 [62]. Hokies score final 12 points, with Deron Washington scoring eight of those and personally preventing an Illinois/SIU game, where I’m convinced negative scoring would have been possible.
Kansas 107, Niagara 67 [86!]. It’s getting late, but I think it really was an 86-possession game. Someone check my math. If so, it was easily the fastest of the season for both teams.
Purdue 72, Arizona 63 [67]. And this is how Arizona’s season ends. Carl Landry was Carl Landry (21 and 13).
Texas 79, New Mexico St. 67 [69]. Yeah, Durant was awesome. 27 points and his shooting rate was only 27%, so it’s not like it was all on his shoulders. His 16 FTA’s might be masking that, however. Now we get to see how Tim Floyd deals with him. I’m mildly excited.
Kentucky 67, Villanova 58 [61]. Tubby Smith, fighting for his job, gives Dwight Perry his first career start. Perry had not played a full minute in the three games he had appeared in this season. Team is inspired to one of its most impressive W’s of the season. Tubby’s just crazy enough to do this against Kansas, also. He’s insane, insane like a fox.
Southern Illinois 61, Holy Cross 51 [66]. More free throw attempts than 2-point attempts in this one. All told, a grand total of 32 made field goals.
Florida 112, Jackson State 69 [74]. You wouldn’t know it by Florida’s OR% of 66.7 (5th best in a game between D-I’s this season), but this game was mildly suspenseful for about 12 minutes.
USC 77, Arkansas 60 [66]. Probably what the 3rd place team in the Pac 10 should do to the 3rd place team in the SEC West, but I was surprised it wasn’t closer.
Friday, March 16, 2007
Charting Day 1
Possessions estimated unless HD data available.
Boston College 84, Texas Tech 75 [62 possessions]. The flex offense is right up there with the Princeton in terms of potency. But it just seems like the Eagles intentionally take off possessions defensively. I’d like to think this catches up with you eventually. Or, like, on Saturday, when you have to play a devastating offensive team.
Maryland 82, Davidson 70 [80!]. Maryland officially becomes “dangerous”. Their D hasn’t had a bad game in a long time, and their offense has the kind of balance that should scare any team not named the Hurricanes. Nice effort by Davidson, and we’ll hear more from Stephen Curry for sure.
Louisville 78, Stanford 58 [69]. Terrence Williams: 4 FGA’s and 4 assists. That’s a recipe for success. Folks that have Louisville in the Final Four, you have my admiration. Were they playing any other 3-seed in the second round, I’d be feeling good about your chances. Pitino is possibly the best tournament coach out there, but I have a feeling Gillispie will have a similar legacy within a decade. Louisville/Texas A&M should not be a second round game. Nor should it be in Lexington. This one is more of a toss-up than people realize.
Washington State 70, Oral Roberts 54 [58]. Six turnovers by the Cougars, but that’s what they do. Where’s a Marchello Vealy 3-point outbreak when you need it?
Butler 57, Old Dominion 46 [55]. Our one man efficiency-band Pete Campbell gets hot midway though the second half, hitting three 3’s in the span of 1:29. And in a game this low-scoring, that was huge.
Georgetown 80, Belmont 55 [62]. With Jeff Green on the floor, Georgetown outscored Belmont 35-30. With Roy Hibbert on the floor, the Hoyas had a 41-21 advantage. I wonder what the difference could have been: Hibbert’s 28.6 DR%, his 35.0 OR%, his 30.8 Assist%, his 21.4 Block%, or his zero turnovers? I know it was only Belmont, but it was as dominating of a game as you’ll see in the non-points stats in 21 minutes.
Texas A&M 68, Penn 52 [62]. A minor scare here for the Aggies who trailed with 13 minutes to go, but closed out the Quakers with a 31-13 spurt. Acie Law played all but 1:04 of this one. How long can he last against the Cardinal press? What A&M does with Donald Sloan running the point could be crucial. Worst case scenario relating to this situation was their game in the altitude against run-and-gun Colorado. Law played 26:40 and was +14, Sloan played 23:57 and was +13, so it’s not like Sloan is unreliable. This game will be slower paced than that one and not at altitude, so Law should be good for 35 minutes barring foul trouble, anyway.
Vanderbilt 77, George Washington 44 [65]. Has anybody ever figured out why CBS insists on the mid-afternoon blackout game? Just show us the damn game. We missed GW shooting 30.2% eFG.
Ohio State 78, Central Connecticut 57 [63]. Next.
VCU 79, Duke 77 [70]. So my Coach K love-fest nightmare has been avoided. Thank you, Eric Maynor. Talk during the game was how Duke was getting worn down, but VCU was not appreciably deeper that the Blue Devils. So shouldn’t we be questioning Duke’s stamina? Quite a few goofy questions in the post-game press conference, but none about this that I heard. Think we might hear some Anthony Grant coaching rumors next week? Or the week after. Maynor is going to give Pitt’s suspect perimeter D fits.
Michigan State 61, Marquette 49 [58]. Only saw about a minute of this one, which is fine since I’ve seen enough elbow dislocations for one season. Thought my box score parser was on the fritz seeing such few opportunities for assists by Marquette players. But they really only made 15 shots, with 29 of their 47 attempts coming from long range. Apparently, the Dunk Police dedicated this shift in Idong Ibok’s honor.
UCLA 70, Weber State 42 [61]. Next.
Xavier 79, BYU 77 [67]. The most entertaining game of the day. Both teams like to push and a partisan crowd always adds a little something. Not to mention one of only two games that were decided in the final minute.
Indiana 70, Gonzaga 57 [67]. Didn’t catch much of this one, but what little I saw involved the commentators obsessing over Abdullahi Kuso’s excellent defense on DJ White. If it was so great, why did Kuso only play 17 minutes? According to the HDBS, White must have been pretty dominant while Kuso was on the bench.
North Carolina 86, Eastern Kentucky 65 [72]. Eastern Kentucky went on a 29-9 run midway through the game. It would have been more interesting to start the game that way. Carolina had a TO% north of 30, but with an eFG% of 77.2 and an OR% of 52.4.
Pitt 79, Wright State 58 [70]. A fitting way to end the day.
Thursday, March 15, 2007
Florida Isn’t Going to the Final Four
You’ll recall last year at this time, I went a little postal on how many experts were forecasting a Duke/UConn final, when such a game was much more of a longshot than the pundits’ unanimity suggested.
The gutless wonders out there picking a Duke/UConn final make me laugh. I mean that could happen, but it’s not as likely as a lot of people are making it out to be.
Geez. Relax, man.
But looking at this years predictions, I can’t help but feel some deja vu. Here’s how the 22 experts on ESPN.com, SI.com, and CBS Sportsline picked the Final Four.
West: UCLA 11, Kansas 10, Virginia Tech 1
South: Texas A&M 11, Ohio St. 8, Memphis 2, Virginia 1
East: Georgetown 11, UNC 9, Texas 2
Midwest: Florida 22
88 Final Four teams picked and exactly six outside of the Trendy Seven. Look, it doesn’t take an expert to tell us that a member of the Trendy Seven is good, so can’t somebody pick a darkhorse or two? (No, not Virginia, Dennis Dodd. I mean a team that actually has a chance.) All we’ve been hearing about is how great the Pac-10 is, and yet not a single Pac-10 team in the mix, despite a couple of 3-seeds out there. How about Southern Illinois or Nevada, who finished in the AP Top 15? Heck, Wisconsin and Memphis got in as 2-seeds and have only 2 picks between them. A lot of people allegedly thought those teams were pretty good down the stretch.
But nothing burns me more than the fact that everybody picked Florida.
I can’t stress this enough, but chances are better that Florida isn’t going to Atlanta than is. Whether you believe log5 or the betting public. Or even if you believe Florida has been dogging it to this point, which they surely have to some extent.
Of course, we know the Gators are the best team in the region. We don’t need power ratings or experts to tell us that. That’s not exactly the point. The point is, it’s March Madness. And every team in the field needs at least some luck to get to the Final Four. Florida might need it less than anybody else, but they still need it.
Enjoy the games…Oh, and I’m picking Georgia Tech from the Midwest.
Yeah, crazy, I know. Sure, they could lose to UNLV. They will lose to UNLV if they play D like they did against Wake Forest. Heck, they’d lose to Nevada-Tonopah if they played D like that.
But you don’t need me to tell you that Georgia Tech isn’t the best team in the region. However, if they had UVa’s conference schedule and luck, the Jackets would be a 4-seed, and somebody might be picking them. Or maybe still just me. Whatever.
By the way, nice e-mail by Greg S. in the Wonk blog yesterday. Nobody, I mean nobody, is sticking up for Wisconsin, either. Yet the argument that their offensive slump is as much schedule-based as Butch-based is a legitimate one. Not one I necessarily buy, but legitimate. And their D should still be dominant without Butch given the team-based nature of the Ryan system. So if you want a “safer” non-Florida pick, Wisconsin isn’t bad. Neither is Maryland.
But please, fight the power. It’s more fun that way.
Finally, a parting e-mail from our log5 contributor, Mr. Picklesimer…
Hi Ken,
I just did these calculations for fun using the percentages chart I sent you…just thought I’d share. I haven’t double-checked them, but they’d be easy enough to check again if you don’t believe any certain ones. There certainly are some interesting ones in here:
A #1-seed has a 60.22% chance of winning it all
A #2-seed has a 22.21% chance
A #3-seed has a 8.55% chance
There’s a 93.87% chance the winner will be seeded 1-4Teams seeded #13 or below have only a 0.171% chance of making the final four
Most likely of these teams to make final four: Davidson…by farWinner from the East: 33.80%
From the Midwest: 19.64%
From the South: 19.49%
From the West: 27.06%40.04% chance we’ll see all 4 #1’s in the Sweet 16
16.47% chance we’ll see all 4 #1’s in the Elite 8
3.12% chance we’ll see all 4 #1’s in the final four
6.21% chance we’ll see the top 2 overall in the finals (UF vs. UNC)Champion by major conference:
ACC: 28.01% (7 teams)
Big 12: 27.46% (4 teams)
Big 10: 16.92% (6 teams)
Big East: 11.35% (6 teams)
SEC: 9.09% (5 teams)
Pac-10: 3.83% (6 teams)
Once again, I really can’t thank you enough for all the data you provide and maintain.
-Kevin