Friday, March 23, 2007
Scoring Oddities
Anybody remember Tennessee’s Josh Tabb making a three-pointer last night? He was officially credited with Chris Lofton’s first 3-ball. Thus, Lofton officially finished with 24 points when he should have had 27. [Update: Tabb hit a 3 later in the first half which was credited to Lofton. So it’s all good, I guess.] And yeah, from the Vols perspective, it was nice to have Greg Oden on the bench for so long. While Tennessee was a scorching 16 of 31 on 3’s, they gave some of that back by going 0-for-11 on 2-point jumpers.
The other HD’s…
SIU/Kansas
Pitt/UCLA
Texas A&M/Memphis
Thursday, March 22, 2007
A Couple of Fun Notes
These aren’t going to change your life, but they are interesting nonetheless:
- A tipster pointed out that the Texas A&M assist rate might be due in part to a friendly home scorer’s table (related article). Actually, there’s amazing evidence to that effect. I just looked at the Big XII foes that A&M plays a home-and-home against to eliminate any effect an unbalanced schedule would have.
Assist Percentage (A/FGM)
Home Road Texas A&M 75.6 33.1 Opponents 54.1 57.1
Even though this only includes five games on each side of the ledger, it is pretty startling. A&M gets credited with double assists at Reed Arena.
- In the first Ohio State/Tennessee game, a 2-point Buckeye victory, the Buckeyes were outscored 8-0 with Greg Oden on the bench. I’m sure this was as much fluke as it was something real, but I doubt you’ll here about it anywhere else.
Wednesday, March 21, 2007
Do You Really Know Texas A&M?
Don’t fall into the trap that Texas A&M is led by their defense. The story with the Aggies is how incredible its offense is, especially considering how far it has come.
For the moment let’s ignore history and look at the facts in efficiency terms. A&M’s offense is just as good as its defense, but it’s not enough to say Texas A&M ranks 6th nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency and 11th in adjusted defensive efficiency. So let’s take the semi-secret adjusted part of the formula out of it and look at some raw data.
Games below national average (102.1) offensively
3/9 Oklahoma St. (neutral) 92.4
1/9 Baylor (road) 97.1
12/9 UCLA (road) 97.8
12/5 LSU (road) 84.9
Just four times has Texas A&M had what could be called a bad offensive game. I’m not going to list all of their below-average defensive games, because there are 10 of them.
Let’s look at how many times a Texas A&M opponent experienced one its five worst defensive games against the Aggies. Again, these are raw figures, and include only conference games and at-large worthy non-conference opponents.
Louisville (5th)
Missouri (2nd)
Texas (1st)
Baylor (2nd)
Oklahoma State (5th)
Oklahoma (4th)
Kansas (4th)
Winthrop (2nd)
On the opposite side, A&M had fewer standout defensive performances this season. Here are the opponents that experienced one of their five worst offensive games at the hands of the Aggies.
Oklahoma State (1st, 3rd)
Baylor (3rd)
Iowa State (1st)
Winthrop (2nd)
So whether you believe in my schedule adjustments or not, it’s pretty clear that the A&M offense deserves a little more attention. The other part of the story is that while the defense has been steady under Gillispie, the offense has made huge strides from last season.
2007 2006 adjOE 120.4 (6) 107.3 (80) eFG% 55.9 (5) 50.8(104) TO% 18.3 (36) 20.2(108) OR% 33.7(159) 29.8(247) FTR 30.3 (40) 29.3 (40)
While Acie Law gets much of the credit for the improvement, this is not a one-man show. Figures represent offensive rating and percent of possessions used.
2007 2006 Law4 115.5/27.4 104.7/25.6 Kirk 109.9/12.8 105.6/12.9 Jones 121.1/23.4 110.1/27.0 Kava 111.1/22.1 105.0/20.3 Carter 132.9/17.3 106.6/20.9
Law is better, but he’s not the only one. The front line tandem of Kavaliauskas and Jones is much more dangerous than last season. And Josh Carter is the tourney’s best remaining pure shooter (sorry, Lee Humphrey). But the interesting thing about Law is he is taking fewer 3’s. Only 19% of his shots this season are from 3, compared to 29% last season, and his free throw rate (ratio of free throw attempts to field goal attempts) is up to 44.6 from 32.7. All of that explains this…
2007 2006 2-point FG% 52.8(32) 49.1(129) 3-point FG% 42.4 (2) 36.1(100) 3PA/FGA 28.3(290) 34.6(129) A/FGM 65.6(11) 70.2 (2)
The offense is still no thing of beauty. No, wait a minute. It is a thing of beauty. A&M doesn’t shoot 3’s nearly as often any more, but when they do, they are deadly. And when they don’t, they are deadly. I put the assist rate up there also, because while you might interpret that as “not sharing the ball as well,” I interpret that as being able to score off the dribble more frequently. Which all gets back to Law, whose personal stats say is scoring off the dribble more frequently.
Not only is Texas A&M’s offense the foundation of this year’s team, but it’s the kind of offense that will cram the ball down the opponents throat over and over given the choice. Memphis is going to be the ultimate test, as opponents take few 3’s against the Tigers and shoot 2’s horribly (5th worst in the country). The Aggies haven’t faced an offensive test quite like this one, but if they pass, you’d have to put this offense in the elite category.
Monday, March 19, 2007
Tracking the Doomsday Scenario
Here are the odds on our 16-team tourney courtesy of Mr. Picklesimer.
- The chance of all four #1’s making it to Atlanta (my Doomsday Scenario) is up to 9%. If that happens, I’m not sure how I would cope. It’s comforting to know it’s still a longshot.
- The “Cinderella’s Revenge” Final Four of UNLV, Southern Illinois, Vanderbilt, and Tennessee has a .0009% chance of happening.
- Thanks to the Xavier scare and the relative improvement of the other three teams in their region, Ohio State’s chance at the national title has actually decreased despite winning twice.
- Kansas has become the team with the best chance to win it all.
- The chance of Maarty hoisting the trophy is over 1% now, although that doesn’t account for fate which is clearly on Maarty’s side.
elite8 final4 finals champ
Midwest
1 Florida 78.83 62.56 32.83 17.00
5 Butler 21.17 10.82 2.63 0.61
3 Oregon 61.41 18.29 4.87 1.24
7 UNLV 38.59 8.33 1.58 0.28
West
1 Kansas 84.20 58.85 39.08 22.71
4 Southern Illinois 15.80 4.88 1.47 0.32
3 Pittsburgh 37.32 11.05 4.45 1.37
2 UCLA 62.68 25.23 13.10 5.53
East
1 North Carolina 84.26 56.69 37.08 22.21
5 USC 15.74 4.71 1.26 0.30
6 Vanderbilt 20.41 3.76 0.88 0.18
2 Georgetown 79.59 34.83 18.66 8.97
South
1 Ohio St. 77.89 42.95 19.69 9.57
5 Tennessee 22.11 5.76 1.18 0.27
3 Texas A&M 59.11 32.41 14.42 6.81
2 Memphis 40.89 18.88 6.82 2.64
Saturday, March 17, 2007
Charting Day 2
So, round 1 was a dud. But it makes us appreciate that none of this is staged, doesn’t it?
Virginia 84, Albany 57 [58 possessions]. In the first 7 vs. 15 game in history, the 7-seed wins easily. Considering what Connecticut went through last season, it’s an encouraging win for the Cavaliers.
UNLV 67, Georgia Tech 63 [59?]. Potential Final Four team goes down! For some reason I thought Will Bynum and BJ Elder were still around. Oh well, at least a couple others out publicly picked “Not Florida”, but yet made an intelligent selection. I’ll do better next year. How did this game end up so slow? I’ll tell you - crazy offensive rebounding on both ends. Both teams were able to grab over 50% of their own misses to cheat the shot clock and create multiple lengthy possessions. Useless trivia: Paul Hewitt’s substitutions equaled Georgia Tech’s possessions.
Memphis 73, North Texas 58 [71]. A couple of teams that have toned down their running act this season, and it showed in this game which barely cracked an average pace. Interesting game of unknowns on Sunday. Nevada just played its first Pomeroy top 50 team since December 9th, and Memphis hasn’t played one since December 20th.
Winthrop 74, Notre Dame 64 [74]. Harangody-mania will have to wait another year. Actually, Luke was awful, as a -20 in 16:46 will demonstrate. He sat for the Irish comeback as Mike Brey deployed the press, then returned for Winthrop’s final run.
Tennessee 121, Long Beach State 86 [76]. In the first 6 vs. 16 game in history, the 6-seed wins easily. Hey committee, can we just go back to conventional seeding next season? Now we get the first ever 6 vs. 7 game in the second round.
Wisconsin 76, Texas A&M CC 63 [68]. The Badgers gave the Islanders a 10-minute head start in this one. Now, we might be left with the impression that Wisconsin’s offense is struggling when they score 4 points in the first 10 minutes. But they did get their act together and salvage a mildly efficient game considering the opposition. This is the only dress rehearsal you get - time to start playing like a 2-seed.
Nevada 77, Creighton 71 (OT) [73]. If this game didn’t end up close, we should have just called off the whole thing.
Oregon 58, Miami 56 [52]. Ugh! The blackout game! It was entertaining! There was a half-court buzzer-beater at the end of the game! It didn’t matter! So the 2 and 3 in the Midwest looked rather weak and my supposedly undervalued 6 and 10 seeds bowed out. Things are looking nice for Florida, huh?
Virginia Tech 54, Illinois 52 [62]. Hokies score final 12 points, with Deron Washington scoring eight of those and personally preventing an Illinois/SIU game, where I’m convinced negative scoring would have been possible.
Kansas 107, Niagara 67 [86!]. It’s getting late, but I think it really was an 86-possession game. Someone check my math. If so, it was easily the fastest of the season for both teams.
Purdue 72, Arizona 63 [67]. And this is how Arizona’s season ends. Carl Landry was Carl Landry (21 and 13).
Texas 79, New Mexico St. 67 [69]. Yeah, Durant was awesome. 27 points and his shooting rate was only 27%, so it’s not like it was all on his shoulders. His 16 FTA’s might be masking that, however. Now we get to see how Tim Floyd deals with him. I’m mildly excited.
Kentucky 67, Villanova 58 [61]. Tubby Smith, fighting for his job, gives Dwight Perry his first career start. Perry had not played a full minute in the three games he had appeared in this season. Team is inspired to one of its most impressive W’s of the season. Tubby’s just crazy enough to do this against Kansas, also. He’s insane, insane like a fox.
Southern Illinois 61, Holy Cross 51 [66]. More free throw attempts than 2-point attempts in this one. All told, a grand total of 32 made field goals.
Florida 112, Jackson State 69 [74]. You wouldn’t know it by Florida’s OR% of 66.7 (5th best in a game between D-I’s this season), but this game was mildly suspenseful for about 12 minutes.
USC 77, Arkansas 60 [66]. Probably what the 3rd place team in the Pac 10 should do to the 3rd place team in the SEC West, but I was surprised it wasn’t closer.