Saturday, March 10, 2007
Final Tally
Here’s the complete list of how teams with no rest fared the past two days. Overall, there was a slight underperformance.
Fatigued Team Rested Team Expected Outcome Villanova Georgetown L,61-65(33%) L,57-62 Syracuse Notre Dame L,78-80(42%) L,83-89 West Virginia Louisville L,64-66(38%) L,71-82 2OT Marquette Pitt L,64-67(36%) L,79-89 Cal UCLA L,59-71(10%) W,76-69 OT Washington Washington St. L,63-67(34%) L,64-74 Dayton Xavier L,64-75(15%) L,51-72 Fordham Rhode Island W,69-68(52%) L,69-73 St. Louis UMass L,62-69(23%) W,74-71 OT St. Joseph's George Wash. L,63-65(44%) L,48-58 E. Michgan Toledo L,62-72(16%) L,54-62 Ohio Miami L,60-61(44%) L,51-70 C. Michigan Akron L,60-75( 5%) L,53-82 W. Michigan Kent St. L,65-69(34%) L,66-75 Rice Central Fla. L,61-79( 5%) W,53-51 Southern Miss Houston L,68-70(43%) L,59-62 Marshall Memphis L,58-82( 2%) L,71-92 Tulsa Tulane W,69-66(64%) L,56-58 Kentucky Miss. St. W,74-71(60%) L,82-84 OT Arkansas Vanderbilt W,71-68(62%) W,72-71 Georgia Florida L,65-74(20%) L,57-74 LSU Ole Miss W,67-64(64%) L,60-80 Oklahoma Kansas L,58-68(15%) L,47-64 Texas Tech Kansas St. L,68-69(44%) L,45-66 Okla. St. Texas A&M L,61-74( 9%) W,57-56 Baylor Texas L,67-79(14%) L,69-74 Florida St. N. Carolina L,71-84(13%) L,58-73 Miami Boston College L,68-76(21%) L,71-74 OT NC State Virginia L,71-76(30%) W,79-71 Wake Forest Virginia Tech L,67-75(20%) L,52-71 Michigan Ohio State L,58-67(17%) L,62-72 Michigan St. Wisconsin L,57-59(37%) L,57-70 Illinois Indiana L,61-63(43%) W,58-54 OT Wins 10.1 7 Avg Score 65-71 62-71
Friday, March 09, 2007
No Rest, No Problem?
Several people, including myself, have noted that the log5 prediction formula doesn’t account for the situation of a fatigued team having to play a fresh team. It seems like a plausible idea, but looking at yesterday’s action, the jury’s still out.
The predictions below are based on yesterday’s ratings involving games where only one team had played the day before. And while only two wins were predicted for the fatigued bunch, we’d expect about five based on the sum of the win percentages. In aggregate, fatigued teams slightly underperformed, winning two or three fewer games than expected (although two of the fatigued winners were very unexpected). However, the average score wasn’t much different than expected.
I’ll update this for the 15 games that fall into this category today.
Fatigued Team Rested Team Pred Outcome Villanova Georgetown L,61-65(33%) L,57-62 Syracuse Notre Dame L,78-80(42%) L,83-89 West Virginia Louisville L,64-66(38%) L,71-82 2OT Marquette Pitt L,64-67(36%) L,79-89 Cal UCLA L,59-71(10%) W,76-69 OT Washington Washington St. L,63-67(34%) L,64-74 Dayton Xavier L,64-75(15%) L,51-72 Fordham Rhode Island W,69-68(52%) L,69-73 St. Louis UMass L,62-69(23%) W,74-71 OT St. Joseph's George Wash. L,63-65(44%) L,48-58 E. Michgan Toledo L,62-72(16%) L,54-62 Ohio Miami L,60-61(44%) L,51-70 C. Michigan Akron L,60-75( 5%) L,53-82 W. Michigan Kent St. L,65-69(34%) L,66-75 Rice Central Fla. L,61-79( 5%) W,53-51 Southern Miss Houston L,68-70(43%) L,59-62 Marshall Memphis L,58-82( 2%) L,71-92 Tulsa Tulane W,69-66(64%) L,56-58 Wins 5.4 3 Avg Score 64-70 63-71
Wednesday, March 07, 2007
Tourney Preview Extravaganza
Here’s a final flurry of log5 analysis dealing with tourneys that start today, except for the ACC, Big XII, and Big Ten which start tomorrow, and the WAC which started yesterday. Major ups to Kevin Haluska for providing me with the spreadsheet I was too lazy to create on my own. And thanks to everyone who has submitted one of these over the past few days.
First the ACC, where seeds and byes don’t seem to matter…
Qtrs Semis Finals Champ 1 UNC 100 86.0 66.0 50.8 7 Duke 90.0 69.5 45.5 17.9 5 Maryland 92.4 68.5 23.6 13.7 6 Ga. Tech 88.6 56.1 27.8 8.7 3 Va. Tech 100 41.9 15.7 3.4 2 UVa 100 27.8 10.2 1.8 4 BC 100 30.1 5.1 1.7 8 Clemson 54.5 8.2 3.2 1.2 9 Fla. St. 45.5 5.8 2.0 0.7 10 NC St. 10.0 2.7 0.5 0.0 11 Wake 11.4 2.1 0.3 0.0 12 Miami 7.6 1.5 0.1 0.0
Duke gets all the breaks. It’s another conspiracy! They have a remarkably easy road from the 7-seed and get the edge for the 2nd pick despite having nearly the same rating as Maryland. Without Gerald Henderson, getting by NC State won’t be quite so easy as the chart makes it look - he’s their 2nd most frequent shooter per minute.
Now, the most wide open of the major conference tourneys…
Qtrs Semis Finals Champ 1 G'town 100 72.2 51.7 34.4 3 Pitt 100 68.2 41.2 20.3 2 L'ville 100 67.5 33.5 14.8 4 ND 100 62.1 23.7 11.6 9 Nova 65.8 21.1 11.5 5.6 6 Marq 80.5 29.4 13.8 5.1 7 WVU 66.1 24.6 9.1 3.0 5 Syracuse 54.1 21.5 6.3 2.4 12 UConn 45.9 16.4 4.3 1.5 8 DePaul 34.2 6.7 2.6 0.9 10 Prov 33.9 7.9 1.9 0.4 11 St Johns 19.5 2.4 0.4 0.1
But the byes matter here. A crappy draw for Syracuse, who would be more likely to get out of the first round were they a 6 or 7 seed. And keep an eye on Villanova, a team that both my ratings and the RPI agree is underrated. It’s a thought I’m not entirely comfortable with. And did you see the game Scottie Reynolds had last week? I didn’t either, but now it’s almost like you were there. Scoring 40 of your team’s 66 points while you were on the floor is impressive, even more so when it’s against one of the best defenses in the game. However, Scottie posted a 1.26 PPWS which isn’t off the charts efficiency. For that, read on.
Here’s the least wide open major tourney…
Qtrs Semis Finals Champ 1 UCLA 100 93.2 71.1 56.8 2 Wazzou 100 71.2 38.8 11.7 5 Arizona 100 60.4 18.3 10.9 3 USC 100 61.6 34.1 10.3 4 Oregon 100 39.6 9.1 4.5 6 Stanford 100 38.4 16.9 3.7 7 Wash 76.1 25.5 9.7 1.8 8 Cal 79.4 6.4 1.4 0.4 10 ASU 23.9 3.3 0.5 0.0 9 OSU 20.6 0.5 0.0 0.0
I gave a half share of home court to the LA teams. If you want points and through-the-roof-efficiency, check out Ivan Radenovic’s line against Stanford. Scoring 37 and missing only 6 shots equates to a PPWS of 1.59. You don’t need to play D if you can do that occasionally. Problem is, nobody can do that occasionally.
It was nice of the Big Ten to invite everybody, but the first round is effectively “Exhibition Thursday”...
Qtrs Semis Finals Champ 1 OSU 100 85.1 67.2 40.7 2 Wisc 100 63.6 43.4 25.0 3 Indiana 100 60.3 23.2 10.0 7 MSU 92.7 36.0 20.8 9.9 5 Purdue 100 67.3 20.3 6.9 6 Illinois 89.0 38.7 12.6 4.7 8 Michigan 85.2 14.4 6.4 1.6 4 Iowa 100 32.7 6.0 1.2 9 Minn 14.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 10 N'westrn 7.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 11 Penn St. 11.0 1.0 0.1 0.0
If the bottom three teams stayed home, it wouldn’t alter any other team’s chance of winning it all by more than 0.8%. The chart doesn’t account for Brian Butch’s absence from Wisconsin, and that’s a big deal. He’s one of only two Badgers that used at least 20% of his team’s possessions. The offense has suffered more than the defense without Butch, and I don’t think that’s a fluke. The Badgers are now Alando Tucker and a bunch of role players.
The Big Roman Numerals…
Qtrs Semis Finals Champ 1 Kansas 100 84.1 76.0 49.2 2 Tex A&M 100 91.6 69.5 36.1 3 Texas 100 75.5 24.4 7.9 9 Okla 88.9 15.6 10.4 3.2 4 K St. 100 59.1 8.6 1.7 5 TT 89.7 40.1 4.9 0.8 6 Mizzou 74.9 21.5 3.8 0.7 7 Ok. St. 59.8 5.8 1.6 0.2 10 Nebraska 40.2 2.7 0.5 0.1 11 Baylor 25.1 3.0 0.2 0.0 8 Iowa St. 11.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 12 Colorado 10.3 0.9 0.0 0.0
I gave half home-court to the Oklahoma teams, if nothing else to overrate the Sooners a little more in my system. A Kansas-Texas A&M rematch has about an 18% (Whoops. It’s more like 53%.) chance of happening. But that would only be a matchup of the RPI’s #15 and #16 teams, so maybe it wouldn’t be that big of a deal.
CUSA…
Qtrs Semis Finals Champ 1 Memphis 100 96.1 92.2 87.5 3 Houston 100 63.1 36.6 3.7 2 UCF 100 60.1 29.6 2.6 5 Tulsa 94.2 59.8 4.1 2.0 6 USM 70.0 29.7 15.0 1.2 10 UTEP 71.1 32.5 14.7 1.2 9 UAB 74.1 3.5 1.9 0.9 4 Tulane 100 39.6 1.7 0.6 7 Rice 28.9 7.4 1.9 0.1 8 Marshall 25.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 11 SMU 30.0 7.2 2.2 0.1 12 ECU 5.8 0.6 0.0 0.0
CUSA is actually improved from last season, but the outcome of the conference tourney is almost pre-determined, especially with it being in Memphis. The Tigers went 16-0 in league play and won 14 by double digits, so these odds don’t seem far-fetched to me. This will be the farewell for Rice’s Morris Almond. Is there anyone in the nation that did more with less of a supporting cast?
Last team on the bubble, kiss your butt good-bye…
Qtrs Semis Finals Champ 1 Nevada 100 94.9 61.3 42.5 2 NMSU 100 85.0 50.7 20.7 5 Hawaii 100 64.8 27.7 16.7 3 Fresno 100 53.9 25.8 8.7 6 Boise St 100 46.1 20.4 6.2 4 Utah St. 100 35.2 10.5 4.8 7 La. Tech 100 15.0 3.1 0.4 8 SJSU 70.3 4.3 0.5 0.1 9 Idaho 29.7 0.8 0.0 0.0
I alluded to this on Monday, but this is the tourney most likely to produce a dance-crasher. I can’t properly model the Hawaii jet-lag effect, so their chances are overstated.
But for those that think Xavier is safe as an at-large, there’s also potential for trouble in the A-10…
Qtrs Semis Finals Champ 1 Xavier 100 88.2 78.5 57.5 2 UMass 100 79.5 57.3 25.4 3 G. Wash. 100 52.0 17.9 4.8 6 St. Joes 60.8 31.7 11.5 3.3 4 URI 100 52.6 7.9 2.1 5 Fordham 85.0 44.9 7.3 2.1 7 St Louis 80.2 19.1 8.5 2.0 8 Dayton 58.4 7.7 4.3 1.3 9 Char 41.6 4.1 1.9 0.5 11 Temple 39.2 16.2 4.5 1.0 10 Duquesne 19.8 1.4 0.2 0.0 12 Richmond 15.0 2.5 0.1 0.0
Finally, who’s more wack than the MAC, where the divisions mean nothing when it comes to seeding…
Qtrs Semis Finals Champ 2 Akron 100 91.5 61.9 47.0 3 Kent St. 100 70.6 28.9 18.8 1 Toledo 100 82.0 45.4 14.9 4 Miami 100 62.5 33.7 10.6 5 Ohio 77.5 33.5 15.9 4.1 6 W. Mich 81.7 27.5 7.5 3.7 9 Ball St. 57.2 11.4 2.7 0.3 10 Buffalo 58.1 5.6 1.1 0.3 8 E. Mich 42.8 6.7 1.3 0.1 12 BGSU 22.5 4.1 0.9 0.1 7 C. Mich 41.9 3.0 0.4 0.1 11 N. Ill 18.3 1.9 0.2 0.0
Now that you’ve been properly informed, enjoy the hoops feast over the next five days.
Tuesday, March 06, 2007
MWC Preview
After a 3 year stint in Denver’s mostly empty Pepsi Center, the Mountain West tourney returns to its roots on the campus of UNLV. It gets underway today with the fun-filled 8/9 exhibition.
The reason the tournament moved from Vegas was partly due to complaints about the home court advantage enjoyed by the Rebels. Once again in 2007, home court advantage could push the Rebels over the top.
Qtrs Semis Finals Champ 4 AFA 100 90.1 59.0 38.5 2 UNLV 100 86.3 64.4 31.5 1 BYU 100 85.0 36.8 20.3 3 SDSU 100 64.9 22.8 6.6 6 Colo St. 100 35.1 8.3 1.5 7 Utah 100 13.7 4.5 0.6 5 Wyoming 100 9.9 2.0 0.4 9 NM 67.6 12.0 1.9 0.4 8 TCU 32.4 3.0 0.3 0.0
As usual, there’s no clear favorite in the MWC. UNLV comes in with a wildly inflated RPI (#11) and a mildly inflated AP ranking (#25). Air Force comes up as the favorite, but their pythag rating got an artificial boost from a 88-43 win over Wyoming’s JV squad on February 3rd. Still, even with their recent struggles, and a 4-seed, they have an advantageous draw compared to being a 3-seed and having to get through a Colorado State/UNLV double-header to make the finals.
However, it’s no secret that Air Force is not the team they were in January. They entered conference play flirting with the national lead in both 2-point and 3-point percentage with mind-blowing splits of .623/.457, but in 16 conference games they’ve shot just .525/.364. If you exclude the Wyoming game, when the Cowboys played without four starters, that drops a little more to .518/.358. Those are still decent numbers, but not decent enough for a team that lives by its offense, and especially its outside shooting.
Last season the Falcons got an at-large bid because the committee felt they were a difficult team to play. They can’t use that line this season because conference opponents have had a relatively easy time with them. If you were looking for the 34 best at-large teams, it’s hard to believe that Air Force would be one of them right now. But there’s a chance for redemption in the high desert.
Realistically, this is a typical MWC event where three or four teams have a realistic shot to win it. It’s hard to pick against the Rebels in their home venue, which is a shame because I don’t think it’s clear they are the best team in this event. But the conference has its lack of a Front Range fan base to thank for the situation.
Monday, March 05, 2007
The Team Most Likely to Steal Your Team’s Bid
Hi Ken,
Here is the list of the 10 teams from last season who were, according to your rankings, the most unlucky, yet still in the top 100 overall (from most to least unlucky last season):
Virginia Tech
Notre Dame
Oregon
Drexel
Washington State
Kansas State
Georgia Tech
Oklahoma State
Butler
XavierPretty amazing that here on the last day of February, all 10 of them would at least receive serious consideration for an at-large bid in the NCAAs, if not a high seed in the case of Washington State, Virginia Tech, Oregon, and Butler
It appears that the bottom of the luck ratings from last season is the place to go to find next year’s surprise teams… so look out for Oklahoma, Mississippi State, and LSU in 2008!
Ryan
You know how I feel about the luck parameter and its potential as a fruitful tool in your analysis arsenal. Between that and schedule strength, I really think you can gain a leg up on your pals in pinpointing surprises. For instance, until the loss to Washington, folks were convinced UCLA should be the number one overall seed. But the gap between them and the second-best team in their conference is probably larger than for any other potential number one. In light of that, shouldn’t we expect UCLA to be winning more than its counterparts? And does that winning alone tell us that UCLA is better than its counterparts?
These two items - luck and schedule, both past and future - will be a big part of the bracket breakdown next week, so if you’re tired of reading about it here, you’ve been warned.
But back to the luck notion, let’s think about 2007 first. I’ve made no secret of my affinity for Mississippi State as a serious player on the national scene next season. Horrendous luck and a young, deep team figure to equal surprising success in the following season. But what about some success for the upcoming week?
The Bulldogs did what they needed to do on Sunday to set themselves up for a realistic SEC tourney run - they beat a Ronald Steele-less Alabama and secured a first-round bye. At 8-8, they don’t deserve that bye, but I didn’t make up the SEC seeding rules. The fact is, they own a free pass to the quarterfinals which nearly doubles their chances of winning next Sunday.
If MSU plays the way it did against the Tide, it wouldn’t be hard to envision them cutting down the Georgia Dome nets. But that kind of play is not sustainable by the Bulldogs, especially away from the Hump, if the previous 28 games are an indication. They’re going to need some breaks to win three in a row, and the log5 analysis confirms that.
Qtrs Semis Finals Champs 1E Florida 100 83.3 67.6 50.7 4E Kentucky 71.5 45.8 31.1 13.9 1W MSU 100 42.3 23.0 7.5 3W Ark 81.2 46.6 21.0 7.0 3E Tenn 55.4 37.1 10.9 5.3 2E Vandy 100 49.0 18.7 5.1 5E Georgia 68.2 13.5 7.0 3.1 6W LSU 44.6 27.6 7.0 3.1 2W Miss 100 35.3 6.3 2.1 5W Alabama 28.5 11.9 4.8 1.3 4W Auburn 31.8 3.3 1.1 0.3 6E USC 18.8 4.4 0.7 0.1
While they are fortunate to have the bye, they still have a potential tilt with Kentucky in their first game. Thus their chances are only about 13-to-1 to win it all. This doesn’t include the Monday ratings update. And maybe they’re even a little better still, if you consider that they’ll get an unrested Kentucky or Alabama team in the quarters, which is a scenario that log5 doesn’t account for. But even 13-to-1 isn’t bad for a team playing for a bid in a conference with the defending national champs and three other teams that project as locks.
Finally, if you take the eight teams apparently playing for NCAA tournament entry, their collective chance of winning the title is around 25%. The may make the SEC the conference most likely to provide bubble burstage outside the WAC.
Personally, I wouldn’t mind seeing Mississippi State sit this one out, because I’d like to get some more mileage out of them heading into next season. And the fact is, they’re likely to be an underdog in their first game, so I should get my wish. But don’t count out the possibility that the selection committee will be scrambling on Sunday afternoon to make room for an SEC team that wasn’t supposed to crash the brackets.