Tuesday, March 13, 2007
Bracket Breakdown: Midwest/West
Welcome to the kenpom.com Bracket Breakdown, a Boeheim-free zone. Log5 analysis is treated as gospel here, but I acknowledge that it’s not the answer to all of your bracket issues.
First up the Midwest Region:
2nd Rd Sweet16 Elite8 Final4 Finals Champs 1 Florida 99.72% 78.61% 56.54% 37.69% 21.07% 10.85% 2 Wisconsin 95.91% 68.27% 48.17% 25.15% 12.31% 5.45% 4 Maryland 86.42% 62.76% 26.04% 13.59% 5.64% 2.07% 6 Notre Dame 80.30% 47.69% 18.95% 6.86% 2.29% 0.66% 10 Georgia Tech 69.95% 25.14% 13.87% 5.07% 1.72% 0.50% 3 Oregon 86.02% 44.35% 15.76% 5.08% 1.51% 0.38% 5 Butler 72.39% 27.39% 7.13% 2.48% 0.65% 0.14% 9 Purdue 50.52% 10.89% 4.67% 1.70% 0.47% 0.11% 8 Arizona 49.48% 10.50% 4.45% 1.61% 0.44% 0.10% 7 UNLV 30.05% 6.16% 2.17% 0.45% 0.09% 0.01% 12 Old Dominion 27.61% 5.63% 0.70% 0.12% 0.02% 0.00% 11 Winthrop 19.70% 5.66% 0.84% 0.11% 0.01% 0.00% 13 Davidson 13.58% 4.21% 0.47% 0.07% 0.01% 0.00% 14 Miami (OH) 13.98% 2.31% 0.21% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00% 15 TAMU - CC 4.09% 0.43% 0.04% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 16 Jackson State 0.28% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
As we’ll come to see, this is the most wide open of the four regions, with six teams having at least a 5% chance to get to Atlanta, including an interesting oddball.
Florida’s path to a repeat is potentially quite a bit tougher than last season. Florida getting to the Final Four last season wasn’t a mammoth surprise. Last year at this time, I said:
Some would use Florida’s tournament history to disqualify them from a run to Indy. But don’t hold last season against them - they got the shaft by drawing a (then-)highly-underrated Villanova in the second round. With questions about the first and third picks in this region - the health of Villanova’s Allan Ray and the complete loss of shooting touch by Ohio State’s Je’Kel Foster - this is a good opportunity for Billy Donovan to restore his post-season image.
(Note: I actually said something like this about every team just to cover myself.)
Draw is so important, and the Gators were the second choice to get to the Final Four from their region according to log5. And once they got there, they had the good fortune to draw an 11-seed. A nice draw combined with great play is the formula for a national title.
The draw is not so bad this time around either, the 3- and 5-seeds are relatively weak and the 2-seed has a serious injury to deal with. You have to go to the 4-, 6-, and 10-seeds to find teams that could cause problems for the Gators. With that said, just based on numbers alone, they’re the least likely #1 seed to win it all.
Wisconsin has had major offensive problems since losing Brian Butch. But 2.93 of those 4.93 games have been against either Ohio State (10th best adjusted DE) or Illinois (3rd best AdjDE), so there’s reason for uncertainty about how much Brian Butch’s elbow has impacted the Badgers. Florida and Maryland have the best defenses in this region, and the Badgers would avoid them until the Elite 8.
Most folks know my feelings on Oregon. It started with the Maarty post, but for a while there have been signs that the defense is not top quality. The Ducks have a 1-in-20 shot of getting to the Final Four, and their defense has been better over the last four games, but one of those was against an Arizona team that is notorious for Pac-10 tournament flops.
Maryland gets a tough draw in the first round against Davidson. Davidson is 2nd in the nation in defensive rebounding and Maryland’s offense has been pretty dependent on offensive boards. If Davidson can take care of the ball against Maryland’s press, this game would get interesting.
While the selection committee has its principles, it seems to make arbitrary decisions more often lately. They gave more weight to what Butler did in November that February and March. But Butler has an explosive offense and was the victim of circumstance in its conference championship - a one-point loss on the road in which the opponent shot (eFG) 62.5% while attempting only four lay-ups. The Bulldogs had that luck returned by drawing ODU as a 12-seed, when they could have had to deal with Illinois or Arkansas. ODU is a poor three-point shooting team and they’ll be taking a lot of them against Butler.
As we get into the Cinderella seeds, two teams stand out - Notre Dame and Georgia Tech. Most folks would say it’s crazy to think one of them would make the Elite 8, and the odds are heavily against each doing so, but each is team is better than their seed would indicate. If they can get by serious first-round tests, watch out for these two. When you have Luke Harangody, anything is possible.
Now for the West:
2nd Rd Sweet16 Elite8 Final4 Finals Champs 1 Kansas 99.19% 78.52% 66.68% 48.48% 32.32% 18.89% 2 UCLA 98.08% 67.22% 38.23% 16.59% 8.01% 3.18% 6 Duke 86.21% 51.88% 27.54% 11.37% 5.22% 1.95% 3 Pittsburgh 89.71% 43.85% 20.50% 7.35% 2.93% 0.93% 7 Indiana 71.17% 26.83% 11.68% 3.76% 1.34% 0.37% 8 Kentucky 50.09% 10.76% 6.46% 2.69% 0.97% 0.28% 9 Villanova 49.91% 10.69% 6.41% 2.67% 0.96% 0.27% 12 Illinois 50.70% 30.03% 6.59% 2.29% 0.68% 0.16% 5 Va. Tech 49.30% 28.88% 6.21% 2.12% 0.62% 0.14% 4 S. Illinois 82.89% 38.49% 7.52% 2.36% 0.63% 0.13% 10 Gonzaga 28.83% 5.86% 1.43% 0.25% 0.05% 0.01% 11 VCU 13.79% 3.05% 0.49% 0.06% 0.01% 0.00% 13 Holy Cross 17.11% 2.60% 0.13% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 14 Wright St. 10.29% 1.22% 0.12% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 15 Weber St. 1.92% 0.09% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 16 Play-In 0.81% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
The first thing that jumps out at me is how much easier Kansas’ side of the bracket is. The 2nd round game is no picnic, but the Sweet 16 game should be an easier test by going against one of [Virginia Tech, Illinois, Southern Illinois], although it that game should be very ugly in the points department. Putting that second game in perspective, the Jayhawks have the worst chance of all the No. 1’s to get to the Sweet 16, but the 2nd best to win the championship.
On the other side, while UCLA has a mini-home court advantage, they have to try to fend off some combination of [Indiana, Gonzaga] and [Pitt, Duke] to get to a potential game with Kansas.
The rep for Pitt is that they win with D, but they’ve given up more than a point per possession in eight of their last nine. Getting Aaron Gray over the 30 minute mark will be a key to their effectiveness.
The chances for miracle runs by Southern Illinois and Virginia Tech are severely stunted by having to face Kansas in the second round.
Duke and Indiana are given a real chance to advance deep. Another case of “I don’t see it”, but do you ever see a 6+ seed getting to the Final Four?
Kentucky and Villanova are looked at as underachieving power conference teams. Villanova has been playing better over the past month, while Kentucky’s defense has continued to regress. But Kentucky’s schedule has been the toughest in the land. The health of Mike Nardi could be crucial in deciding this one.
Finally, keep an eye on Illinois...only if you’re wistful for Dick Bennett’s days in the Big Ten. A great defense (3rd in adjusted DE) and a brutal pace (300th in adjusted tempo) have meant that the loser of an Illinois game has scored less than 50 in 7 of their last 13 games. You’ll be lucky to see either team get out of the 50’s in a dream Illini/Saluki 2nd round game.
Monday, March 12, 2007
Preview of a Preview
The Bracket Breakdown featuring log5 computations will commence tomorrow with the Midwest and West regions and continue Wednesday with the East and South. (Sneak preview: there are 10 teams with at least a 2% chance of winning it all if loyal reader Kevin Picklesimer’s calculations are correct.) I always pity the folks that are required to give instant reactions to the field because I need about 24 hours to process things.
Overall, I like what the committee did. My biggest beef is the overseeded (4)Virginia/(5)Tennessee/(12)Long Beach State/(13)Albany pod. I don’t get how one can defend seeding any of those teams that high, but one of them will get to the second week.
A couple of housekeeping notes: fellow rater Mike Greenfield is again running BracketBrains and if you want to test out how certain variables might influence tournament match-ups, then go sign up!
Also, for those that have been especially repulsed by my work this season - folks in the entire state of Nevada or the Stillwater metro area, for example - you’ve gotten your wish. I’ve been drafted into Dan Steinberg’s bracket contest and if things go well, I’ll lose to Jenn Sterger.
Saturday, March 10, 2007
Final Tally
Here’s the complete list of how teams with no rest fared the past two days. Overall, there was a slight underperformance.
Fatigued Team Rested Team Expected Outcome Villanova Georgetown L,61-65(33%) L,57-62 Syracuse Notre Dame L,78-80(42%) L,83-89 West Virginia Louisville L,64-66(38%) L,71-82 2OT Marquette Pitt L,64-67(36%) L,79-89 Cal UCLA L,59-71(10%) W,76-69 OT Washington Washington St. L,63-67(34%) L,64-74 Dayton Xavier L,64-75(15%) L,51-72 Fordham Rhode Island W,69-68(52%) L,69-73 St. Louis UMass L,62-69(23%) W,74-71 OT St. Joseph's George Wash. L,63-65(44%) L,48-58 E. Michgan Toledo L,62-72(16%) L,54-62 Ohio Miami L,60-61(44%) L,51-70 C. Michigan Akron L,60-75( 5%) L,53-82 W. Michigan Kent St. L,65-69(34%) L,66-75 Rice Central Fla. L,61-79( 5%) W,53-51 Southern Miss Houston L,68-70(43%) L,59-62 Marshall Memphis L,58-82( 2%) L,71-92 Tulsa Tulane W,69-66(64%) L,56-58 Kentucky Miss. St. W,74-71(60%) L,82-84 OT Arkansas Vanderbilt W,71-68(62%) W,72-71 Georgia Florida L,65-74(20%) L,57-74 LSU Ole Miss W,67-64(64%) L,60-80 Oklahoma Kansas L,58-68(15%) L,47-64 Texas Tech Kansas St. L,68-69(44%) L,45-66 Okla. St. Texas A&M L,61-74( 9%) W,57-56 Baylor Texas L,67-79(14%) L,69-74 Florida St. N. Carolina L,71-84(13%) L,58-73 Miami Boston College L,68-76(21%) L,71-74 OT NC State Virginia L,71-76(30%) W,79-71 Wake Forest Virginia Tech L,67-75(20%) L,52-71 Michigan Ohio State L,58-67(17%) L,62-72 Michigan St. Wisconsin L,57-59(37%) L,57-70 Illinois Indiana L,61-63(43%) W,58-54 OT Wins 10.1 7 Avg Score 65-71 62-71
Friday, March 09, 2007
No Rest, No Problem?
Several people, including myself, have noted that the log5 prediction formula doesn’t account for the situation of a fatigued team having to play a fresh team. It seems like a plausible idea, but looking at yesterday’s action, the jury’s still out.
The predictions below are based on yesterday’s ratings involving games where only one team had played the day before. And while only two wins were predicted for the fatigued bunch, we’d expect about five based on the sum of the win percentages. In aggregate, fatigued teams slightly underperformed, winning two or three fewer games than expected (although two of the fatigued winners were very unexpected). However, the average score wasn’t much different than expected.
I’ll update this for the 15 games that fall into this category today.
Fatigued Team Rested Team Pred Outcome Villanova Georgetown L,61-65(33%) L,57-62 Syracuse Notre Dame L,78-80(42%) L,83-89 West Virginia Louisville L,64-66(38%) L,71-82 2OT Marquette Pitt L,64-67(36%) L,79-89 Cal UCLA L,59-71(10%) W,76-69 OT Washington Washington St. L,63-67(34%) L,64-74 Dayton Xavier L,64-75(15%) L,51-72 Fordham Rhode Island W,69-68(52%) L,69-73 St. Louis UMass L,62-69(23%) W,74-71 OT St. Joseph's George Wash. L,63-65(44%) L,48-58 E. Michgan Toledo L,62-72(16%) L,54-62 Ohio Miami L,60-61(44%) L,51-70 C. Michigan Akron L,60-75( 5%) L,53-82 W. Michigan Kent St. L,65-69(34%) L,66-75 Rice Central Fla. L,61-79( 5%) W,53-51 Southern Miss Houston L,68-70(43%) L,59-62 Marshall Memphis L,58-82( 2%) L,71-92 Tulsa Tulane W,69-66(64%) L,56-58 Wins 5.4 3 Avg Score 64-70 63-71
Wednesday, March 07, 2007
Tourney Preview Extravaganza
Here’s a final flurry of log5 analysis dealing with tourneys that start today, except for the ACC, Big XII, and Big Ten which start tomorrow, and the WAC which started yesterday. Major ups to Kevin Haluska for providing me with the spreadsheet I was too lazy to create on my own. And thanks to everyone who has submitted one of these over the past few days.
First the ACC, where seeds and byes don’t seem to matter…
Qtrs Semis Finals Champ 1 UNC 100 86.0 66.0 50.8 7 Duke 90.0 69.5 45.5 17.9 5 Maryland 92.4 68.5 23.6 13.7 6 Ga. Tech 88.6 56.1 27.8 8.7 3 Va. Tech 100 41.9 15.7 3.4 2 UVa 100 27.8 10.2 1.8 4 BC 100 30.1 5.1 1.7 8 Clemson 54.5 8.2 3.2 1.2 9 Fla. St. 45.5 5.8 2.0 0.7 10 NC St. 10.0 2.7 0.5 0.0 11 Wake 11.4 2.1 0.3 0.0 12 Miami 7.6 1.5 0.1 0.0
Duke gets all the breaks. It’s another conspiracy! They have a remarkably easy road from the 7-seed and get the edge for the 2nd pick despite having nearly the same rating as Maryland. Without Gerald Henderson, getting by NC State won’t be quite so easy as the chart makes it look - he’s their 2nd most frequent shooter per minute.
Now, the most wide open of the major conference tourneys…
Qtrs Semis Finals Champ 1 G'town 100 72.2 51.7 34.4 3 Pitt 100 68.2 41.2 20.3 2 L'ville 100 67.5 33.5 14.8 4 ND 100 62.1 23.7 11.6 9 Nova 65.8 21.1 11.5 5.6 6 Marq 80.5 29.4 13.8 5.1 7 WVU 66.1 24.6 9.1 3.0 5 Syracuse 54.1 21.5 6.3 2.4 12 UConn 45.9 16.4 4.3 1.5 8 DePaul 34.2 6.7 2.6 0.9 10 Prov 33.9 7.9 1.9 0.4 11 St Johns 19.5 2.4 0.4 0.1
But the byes matter here. A crappy draw for Syracuse, who would be more likely to get out of the first round were they a 6 or 7 seed. And keep an eye on Villanova, a team that both my ratings and the RPI agree is underrated. It’s a thought I’m not entirely comfortable with. And did you see the game Scottie Reynolds had last week? I didn’t either, but now it’s almost like you were there. Scoring 40 of your team’s 66 points while you were on the floor is impressive, even more so when it’s against one of the best defenses in the game. However, Scottie posted a 1.26 PPWS which isn’t off the charts efficiency. For that, read on.
Here’s the least wide open major tourney…
Qtrs Semis Finals Champ 1 UCLA 100 93.2 71.1 56.8 2 Wazzou 100 71.2 38.8 11.7 5 Arizona 100 60.4 18.3 10.9 3 USC 100 61.6 34.1 10.3 4 Oregon 100 39.6 9.1 4.5 6 Stanford 100 38.4 16.9 3.7 7 Wash 76.1 25.5 9.7 1.8 8 Cal 79.4 6.4 1.4 0.4 10 ASU 23.9 3.3 0.5 0.0 9 OSU 20.6 0.5 0.0 0.0
I gave a half share of home court to the LA teams. If you want points and through-the-roof-efficiency, check out Ivan Radenovic’s line against Stanford. Scoring 37 and missing only 6 shots equates to a PPWS of 1.59. You don’t need to play D if you can do that occasionally. Problem is, nobody can do that occasionally.
It was nice of the Big Ten to invite everybody, but the first round is effectively “Exhibition Thursday”...
Qtrs Semis Finals Champ 1 OSU 100 85.1 67.2 40.7 2 Wisc 100 63.6 43.4 25.0 3 Indiana 100 60.3 23.2 10.0 7 MSU 92.7 36.0 20.8 9.9 5 Purdue 100 67.3 20.3 6.9 6 Illinois 89.0 38.7 12.6 4.7 8 Michigan 85.2 14.4 6.4 1.6 4 Iowa 100 32.7 6.0 1.2 9 Minn 14.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 10 N'westrn 7.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 11 Penn St. 11.0 1.0 0.1 0.0
If the bottom three teams stayed home, it wouldn’t alter any other team’s chance of winning it all by more than 0.8%. The chart doesn’t account for Brian Butch’s absence from Wisconsin, and that’s a big deal. He’s one of only two Badgers that used at least 20% of his team’s possessions. The offense has suffered more than the defense without Butch, and I don’t think that’s a fluke. The Badgers are now Alando Tucker and a bunch of role players.
The Big Roman Numerals…
Qtrs Semis Finals Champ 1 Kansas 100 84.1 76.0 49.2 2 Tex A&M 100 91.6 69.5 36.1 3 Texas 100 75.5 24.4 7.9 9 Okla 88.9 15.6 10.4 3.2 4 K St. 100 59.1 8.6 1.7 5 TT 89.7 40.1 4.9 0.8 6 Mizzou 74.9 21.5 3.8 0.7 7 Ok. St. 59.8 5.8 1.6 0.2 10 Nebraska 40.2 2.7 0.5 0.1 11 Baylor 25.1 3.0 0.2 0.0 8 Iowa St. 11.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 12 Colorado 10.3 0.9 0.0 0.0
I gave half home-court to the Oklahoma teams, if nothing else to overrate the Sooners a little more in my system. A Kansas-Texas A&M rematch has about an 18% (Whoops. It’s more like 53%.) chance of happening. But that would only be a matchup of the RPI’s #15 and #16 teams, so maybe it wouldn’t be that big of a deal.
CUSA…
Qtrs Semis Finals Champ 1 Memphis 100 96.1 92.2 87.5 3 Houston 100 63.1 36.6 3.7 2 UCF 100 60.1 29.6 2.6 5 Tulsa 94.2 59.8 4.1 2.0 6 USM 70.0 29.7 15.0 1.2 10 UTEP 71.1 32.5 14.7 1.2 9 UAB 74.1 3.5 1.9 0.9 4 Tulane 100 39.6 1.7 0.6 7 Rice 28.9 7.4 1.9 0.1 8 Marshall 25.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 11 SMU 30.0 7.2 2.2 0.1 12 ECU 5.8 0.6 0.0 0.0
CUSA is actually improved from last season, but the outcome of the conference tourney is almost pre-determined, especially with it being in Memphis. The Tigers went 16-0 in league play and won 14 by double digits, so these odds don’t seem far-fetched to me. This will be the farewell for Rice’s Morris Almond. Is there anyone in the nation that did more with less of a supporting cast?
Last team on the bubble, kiss your butt good-bye…
Qtrs Semis Finals Champ 1 Nevada 100 94.9 61.3 42.5 2 NMSU 100 85.0 50.7 20.7 5 Hawaii 100 64.8 27.7 16.7 3 Fresno 100 53.9 25.8 8.7 6 Boise St 100 46.1 20.4 6.2 4 Utah St. 100 35.2 10.5 4.8 7 La. Tech 100 15.0 3.1 0.4 8 SJSU 70.3 4.3 0.5 0.1 9 Idaho 29.7 0.8 0.0 0.0
I alluded to this on Monday, but this is the tourney most likely to produce a dance-crasher. I can’t properly model the Hawaii jet-lag effect, so their chances are overstated.
But for those that think Xavier is safe as an at-large, there’s also potential for trouble in the A-10…
Qtrs Semis Finals Champ 1 Xavier 100 88.2 78.5 57.5 2 UMass 100 79.5 57.3 25.4 3 G. Wash. 100 52.0 17.9 4.8 6 St. Joes 60.8 31.7 11.5 3.3 4 URI 100 52.6 7.9 2.1 5 Fordham 85.0 44.9 7.3 2.1 7 St Louis 80.2 19.1 8.5 2.0 8 Dayton 58.4 7.7 4.3 1.3 9 Char 41.6 4.1 1.9 0.5 11 Temple 39.2 16.2 4.5 1.0 10 Duquesne 19.8 1.4 0.2 0.0 12 Richmond 15.0 2.5 0.1 0.0
Finally, who’s more wack than the MAC, where the divisions mean nothing when it comes to seeding…
Qtrs Semis Finals Champ 2 Akron 100 91.5 61.9 47.0 3 Kent St. 100 70.6 28.9 18.8 1 Toledo 100 82.0 45.4 14.9 4 Miami 100 62.5 33.7 10.6 5 Ohio 77.5 33.5 15.9 4.1 6 W. Mich 81.7 27.5 7.5 3.7 9 Ball St. 57.2 11.4 2.7 0.3 10 Buffalo 58.1 5.6 1.1 0.3 8 E. Mich 42.8 6.7 1.3 0.1 12 BGSU 22.5 4.1 0.9 0.1 7 C. Mich 41.9 3.0 0.4 0.1 11 N. Ill 18.3 1.9 0.2 0.0
Now that you’ve been properly informed, enjoy the hoops feast over the next five days.