Tuesday, February 13, 2007

Gray Matter

[Note: I have no ftp service today, so there will be no updates to the stats/ratings pages.]

Q: How much is a star player actually worth to his team?

A: To be revealed later this week. But based on the data I have, I found it interesting when Jamie Dixon went to the coaches playbook and pulled Aaron Gray after he picked up his 4th foul against Louisville last night. Sure, Pitt was down by 15 to Louisville, and the game was slipping away anyway. But there was just over 14 minutes remaining, and at that moment, Jamie Dixon conceded a loss.

Subject: Georgetown

Ken,

This team is on a run.....just watched them embarrass WVU.....what’s your take on these boys running the table in the Big East?  They host Pittsburgh on the 24th I believe to avenge an earlier loss....I just don’t see anyone in the nation stopping their offense, could this team be a contender to not just win the Big East but make a Final Four run in the tourney?

Ryan

I’m not a big fan of the .... style of writing, but you are on the money. And I’m actually pretty convinced that people will understand the greatness of the Hoya offense at some point. Perhaps because we have Jonah Keri already on the case. And I believe Roy Hibbert will eventually get his due. For fun, compare his tempo-free line to that of one Greg Oden.

I actually figured the G-Men for having some offensive troubles against WVU, what with the Mountaineers ability to force turnovers and that being the best chance a team has against Georgetown. Force lots and lots of turnovers. Their only three games below 1 PPP, their TO% was north of 25.

The Mountaineers didn’t do bad, benefiting from 16 in a 57 possession game, but it didn’t matter. Georgetown obliterated the point per possession barrier for the ninth consecutive game by hanging 71 on the Mounties, in part by outrebounding WVU 12-9 on its own end. That and shooting 80+ eFG% in the first half. But these kinds of things are becoming routine.

The 24th will be a great test, but whether or not they run the table (and they almost surely won’t) this team is certainly worthy of Final Four consideration. 

Friday, February 09, 2007

Should Charlie Burgess Have Saved the Ball?

For those that missed it on Tuesday night, Texas Tech suffered a heartbreaking loss to Nebraska. After the Red Raiders played flawless defense on the final possession of the game, a rebound on a Marcus Perry missed 3-pointer headed for the sideline. Tech’s Charlie Burgess leapt out of bounds for it, attempted to call timeout in mid-air, realized that doesn’t work any more and then saved the ball in bounds.

Actually, he didn’t save it - replays showed he planted a foot out of bounds before releasing the ball - but play continued and Nebraska’s Charles Richardson grabbed the ball and after a dribble, drained a 20-footer to beat the buzzer and give the Huskers a 61-59 win.

Now I’ve always heard you don’t save the ball blindly onto your own end of the court, and I’ve always disagreed with it. The choice is to eat the ball and let Nebraska inbound it, or essentially inbound it yourself, if awkwardly, and have a decent chance of a teammate securing possession. And even if the opponent gets it, what’s their chance of scoring? In retrospect, it would have been nice for him not to save it. But if you do some back-of-the-napkin calculations, I think you’ll come to the conclusion that unless you’re feeding the opponent into a lay-up, it’s better from a percentage standpoint to try and save it.

Of course, as Bob Knight pointed out, it would have been best to something else.

As I look back, it would have been great if [Burgess] had just gotten it and thrown it up in the air, and then the game is over.

I also had to reprint this comment from Nebraska coach Doc Sadler, who briefly gives us the truth.

The last play was just luck. But we stuck in there to have a chance. That’s not luck. That’s just a team playing hard.

It was luck, yet it wasn’t. How deep.

On a Texas Tech-related matter, I had totally forgotten about my original Game Plan post where I posited that we should see what happens in the January 31 game where Texas visited Texas Tech. As it turned out, the game went according to Game Plan form. Texas didn’t turn the ball over, had a nice offensive night, and won by more than the “experts” thought. It was only one game, and I’m not going to say that’s the basis for elevating Game Plan to some sort of amazing predictive tool, but it was nice to look back and see that things worked out.

On an unrelated matter, I’d like to rescind yesterday’s pick for game of the weekend and switch it to Florida/Kentucky. I don’t talk about the SEC enough, but I just wrapped up the stats package I prepared for ESPN, and let’s just say there is a high probability of an upset. (I guess if the probability gets too high, it’s not an upset anymore, but it’s not that high.)

Kentucky at home is not too much worse than Florida on the road, and Florida’s 3-point shooting has been at unsustainable levels recently even with all the wide-open looks they get. Kentucky’s D encourages the 3, and has the size in the backcourt to close out on the shooters better than other SEC clubs. So I’m expecting a defensive struggle in this one. It should be a close game, but for the opposite reason that Arizona/Oregon should be.

Thursday, February 08, 2007

Comings and Goings in the Tempo-Free World

There’s a perfect storm brewing in the tempo-free world. UNC, one of the 10 fastest teams in the land may well have the best defense in the game, and Georgetown one of the 10 slowest, might have the best offense in the country.

I’ve talked about the Tar Heels enough, but how about Georgetown? They provide a deadly combination of shooting (ranking 3rd) and offensive rebounding (10th). It’s Princeton on steroids. Georgetown’s offensive rebounding won’t get the pub it deserves (except for the Friday a while back where they outrebounded Seton Hall 17-7 on the Hoyas’ offensive end.) because they don’t miss many shots and don’t take as many as most teams. Offensive rebounding opportunities are probably rarer for Georgetown than any other team in the land, but they are a significant factor in their success. They can turn the ball over regularly (and do!) and still pummel opponents with points. Seriously, look at them.

A few notes on other teams…

Texas A&M. Don’t they have to be considered a legitimate title contender now? The secret sub-plot here is that their offense is nearly as good as their defense. In fact in conference play, it’s been better. Only once in conference play have they not scored a point per possession. And if you want to know how important Acie Law is, check this out: In the last two games, the Aggies have made 54 shots while Law has been on the court. Law has made 16 of those himself and assisted on 22 of the other 38.

NC State. For five consecutive halves they looked like the best team in the ACC. It can be a challenge to distinguish between an anomaly and a trend. But I’m going to put this one in the anomaly category and say that Engin Atsur cannot possibly mean that much to a team.

Wichita State. If the Shockers get an at-large bid, I’m pretty sure you would see the spontaneous combustion of Jay Bilas. And for good reason. No other team in the nation will get to sell wins at LSU or Syracuse, both seemingly NIT-bound, as reasons for their admission.

Mississippi State. If you want a sleeper team in ‘08, these guys have all the earmarks of it. Horribly unlucky, with another last-second loss last night, and young. Book it now - the 2008 season will be the Year of Jamont Gordon.

Arizona/Oregon. These two teams meet in Eugene on Saturday in the kenpom.com game of the weekend. I may be the only one that hasn’t given up on Arizona, yet. I know they have internal issues, lack of depth, etc., and it would have been easy to pile on after the UNC debacle, but this is still a potentially dangerous team. With five of their last seven on the road, they have let the easier part of the conference schedule get away from them. But they do have an opportunity for payback against the Ducks.

While Arizona’s defense is laughable at times, I have news for you: Oregon’s is just as bad. Even at 18-1, it was hard to believe the Ducks could be considered a Final Four threat. People doing that were weighting three Aaron Brooks’ shots more than hundreds of other plays that say this team needs to improve markedly over the final weeks to consider a deep tournament run. They’ve allowed all but one conference foe to reach a point per possession. Oregon is a nice story. They’ve improved from last season and also seen a total reversal of their fortune over the final possession or two of a game (correlated gaussian says a net difference of six wins based on this alone).

This game could have a lot of points. I’m not sure which I prefer when it comes to defensive passiveness, the Budinger matador-style or the Radenovic Statue of Liberty. Budinger was easily a team-worst -11 in the first matchup, a 79-77 Oregon win. But Oregon sports a 2-point percentage defense ranking 249th against an offensive schedule strength ranking just 81st. It’s hard to figure which side’s cheese is more Swiss.

There should be lay-ups and dunks on both ends. Let’s try this again - it will be the most entertaining game of the weekend!