Most recent entries

  • Big Ten/ACC Challenge probabilities
  • Week in Review, 11/20-11/26
  • Week in Review, 11/13-11/19
  • Early hot take on the new rules
  • #ShootersClub 2016
  • Which two teams last lost longest ago? (‘15 edition)
  • 2016 preseason ratings
  • Offense vs. Defense: Block percentage
  • Offense vs. Defense: Steals
  • Offense vs. Defense: Free throw rate
  • The good stuff

    At other venues...
  • ($)
  • Deadspin
  • Slate

  • Strategy
  • Whether to foul up 3 late
  • The value of 2-for-1’s
  • Whether to foul when tied (1, 2, 3)
  • Who's the best in-game coach?

  • Philosophy
  • All points are not created equal
  • Brady Heslip’s non-slump
  • The magic of negative motivation
  • A treatise on plus-minus
  • The preseason AP poll is great
  • The lack of information in close-game performance
  • Why I don’t believe in clutchness*

  • Fun stuff
  • The missing 1-point games
  • Which two teams last lost longest ago?
  • How many first-round picks will Kentucky have?
  • Prepare for the Kobe invasion
  • Predicting John Henson's free throw percentage
  • Can Derrick Williams set the three-point accuracy record?
  • Play-by-play Theater: earliest disqualification
  • Monthly Archives

  • November 2015
  • October 2015
  • September 2015
  • August 2015
  • July 2015
  • June 2015
  • April 2015
  • March 2015
  • February 2015
  • January 2015
  • December 2014
  • November 2014
  • October 2014
  • July 2014
  • May 2014
  • April 2014
  • March 2014
  • February 2014
  • January 2014
  • December 2013
  • November 2013
  • October 2013
  • September 2013
  • August 2013
  • July 2013
  • June 2013
  • May 2013
  • April 2013
  • March 2013
  • February 2013
  • January 2013
  • December 2012
  • November 2012
  • October 2012
  • September 2012
  • August 2012
  • July 2012
  • June 2012
  • May 2012
  • April 2012
  • March 2012
  • February 2012
  • January 2012
  • December 2011
  • November 2011
  • October 2011
  • September 2011
  • August 2011
  • July 2011
  • June 2011
  • April 2011
  • March 2011
  • February 2011
  • January 2011
  • December 2010
  • November 2010
  • October 2010
  • August 2010
  • July 2010
  • June 2010
  • May 2010
  • April 2010
  • March 2010
  • February 2010
  • January 2010
  • December 2009
  • November 2009
  • October 2009
  • July 2009
  • February 2009
  • January 2009
  • December 2008
  • November 2008
  • October 2007
  • September 2007
  • July 2007
  • June 2007
  • May 2007
  • April 2007
  • March 2007
  • February 2007
  • January 2007
  • December 2006
  • November 2006
  • October 2006
  • September 2006
  • August 2006
  • July 2006
  • June 2006
  • May 2006
  • April 2006
  • March 2006
  • February 2006
  • January 2006
  • December 2005
  • November 2005
  • October 2005
  • September 2005
  • August 2005
  • July 2005
  • June 2005
  • May 2005
  • April 2005
  • March 2005
  • February 2005
  • January 2005
  • December 2004
  • November 2004
  • October 2004
  • September 2004
  • August 2004
  • July 2004
  • June 2004
  • May 2004
  • April 2004
  • March 2004
  • February 2004
  • January 2004
  • December 2003
  • November 2003

  • RSS feed

    Jammin’ on the James

    by Ken Pomeroy on Wednesday, February 28, 2007

    Here’s the CAA log5 breakdown, as contributed by many. Surging ODU has the best odds out of the 2-seed.

                      Qtrs   Semis  Finals  Champ
     2 ODU             100    89.2   67.1    42.5
     1 VCU             100    88.8   54.9    27.6
     4 Drexel          100    85.4   40.4    17.5
     6 GMU            91.3    47.6   14.7     5.6
     3 Hofstra         100    51.6   15.1     5.4
     7 Towson         68.9     8.9    2.8     0.6 
     5 N'eastern      79.7    13.6    2.4     0.4
     8 Bill & Mary    68.0     9.0    2.0     0.3
    10 UNCW           31.1     2.0    0.3     0.0
     9 Georgia St.    32.0     2.2    0.3     0.0
    12 Delaware       20.3     1.0    0.1     0.0
    11 JMU             8.7     0.8    0.0     0.0


    It’s That Time of Year

    by Ken Pomeroy on Tuesday, February 27, 2007

    It’s time to calculate conference tournament odds based on log5 principles. The Valley Ledger has the data for Arch Madness.

    This is strictly a volunteer effort. If you go through the trouble of computing the odds for a conference tournament, I’ll post them. For those interested, 11.5 is the exponent of choice this season.


    The Value of Consistency

    by Ken Pomeroy on Monday, February 26, 2007

    One of the big issues in my mailbox is how consistency impacts a team’s prospects in The Tournament. More specifically: how can we expect Southern Illinois (Pythagorean rating: 34, Consistency: 1) and Nevada (Pythag: 63, Consistency: 2), teams that have dominated their respective conferences without piling up big margins of victory, to perform in The Tournament? Keep in mind, with just three prior years of data, we don’t have a whole lot to go on statistically. But here are the teams that had some things in common with the canines hoping for a deep run this season:

    2004 Northern Iowa (Pythag: 71, Consistency: 11) Result: First round loss to eventual Final Four participant Georgia Tech. Close game that wasn’t decided until the final minute. (Note: UNI didn’t win the MVC that season, but was the closest thing fitting my criteria in 2004.)
    2005 Gonzaga (Pythag: 32, Consistency: 12) Result:…


    Trying to Improve

    by Ken Pomeroy on Friday, February 23, 2007


    You seem universally skeptical of intra-season “team improvement” stories.  For example, with Duke you give a great alternate explanation of their possible future success.  What do you make of Vanderbilt’s improvement this season?  From a 1-3 start with losses to Wake and Furman to a 7-2 mark in their last 9 SEC games, beating Florida to lengthen their home winning streak to 12.  The “party line” of the Commodores is that after their loss at UGA, the team realized that it needed to pick up the defensive intensity, and Derrick Byars realized he needed to basically take over games on the offensive end at times.  Do the numbers back up the party line, or is Vanderbilt just another good luck / bad luck story?


    Jake describes my views accurately, although I think the quotes should apply to the word stories. I don’t doubt that teams improve during…


    The Foul That Wasn’t

    by Ken Pomeroy on Thursday, February 22, 2007

    These aren’t the games I would have chosen to run, but I’m at the mercy of SID’s and webmasters from around the country on acquiring the necessary data to create boxes. And unfortunately, the SEC guards substitution data like it’s gold.

    Penn State/Ohio State

    It’s not often you see a cellar-dwelling team lose a starter in the first minute and still hang with the #2 team in the nation in their building for 35 minutes.


    Georgetown’s Jeremiah Rivers was credited with a foul when he wasn’t playing, early in the second half. (I had to remove this for my program to work properly.) The foul should have been credited to Roy Hibbert. It didn’t matter much - that would have been Hibbert’s second foul, and when Hibbert eventually picked up what was officially his fourth foul with 4:29 to play, he was removed from the game by…


    Key to the Game

    by Ken Pomeroy on Wednesday, February 21, 2007

    We always talk about “shooting” as one of the four factors, and easily the most important of the four. But it isn’t really shooting, more accurately it’s “making shots.” And in my mind, making shots has two components - shooting and shot selection. You don’t have to be a good shooting team to shoot a high percentage if you’re getting mostly dunks and layups. Likewise, it’s every defense’s dream to have their opponent take contested 15 to 19 foot shots all game.

    Yet, we just roll shot selection into shooting percentage and say a team shot well or poorly based on that stat alone. Well, the HD box score has come to your rescue to add some clarity to this matter.

    The fine folks who score NCAA ball games take great care, or at least some care, to distinguish shots between dunks, layups, and jumpers. And the cause du…


    Plus/Minus Redux

    by Ken Pomeroy on Monday, February 19, 2007

    Raw plus/minus is nice, and I think interesting, if not statistically significant, for an individual game. But step two is to calculate an on/off rating a la the work Roland Beech does on NBA players.

    This kind of analysis is problematic for star college players, because many of them play nearly all of their team’s non-garbage time minutes. We need a pile of data in the off category to make the results meaningful.

    It just so happened that when the Pittsburgh Post Gazette’s Ray Fittipaldo wanted to step outside the box and do a story on the plus/minus concept, it gave me an opportunity to carry out this kind of analysis on a team where the star player does get some meaningful time on the bench. Aaron Gray is widely thought of as All-American/Big East POY material, and yet he averages 29 minutes a game. Not surprisingly, on/off data…


    The First Poll is the Best Poll

    by Ken Pomeroy on Friday, February 16, 2007

    I’ve been kind of distracted by work on the HD box score. Here’s Wednesday’s Ole Miss/LSU game, a 71-70 Rebel win in 60 (counted!) possessions. A decidedly bizarre game where Ole Miss (now leading the SEC West, kudos to Andy Kennedy) turned it over just four times but saw that advantage offset by LSU’s slightly better shooting and much better rebounding. I really preferred to run through Radford’s 114-107 win over VMI, but the Radford scorer’s table apparently gave up on tracking substitutions at some point in the second half. I don’t blame them.

    I hardly pay attention to the opinion polls, but one poll I do think has merit is the very first one of the season. It’s when the games start being played that the polls go to crap. LSU is headed to the rare fate of being a preseason top 10 team, only to…


    HD Box Scores

    by Ken Pomeroy on Wednesday, February 14, 2007

    A lot of folks send in great tips on some cool box scores that appear during the season. I wish I was dutiful enough to print them all. I did get a lot of mail about Butler’s offensive assault on Cleveland State last week. A historic game indeed - Butler’s 92 points on 53 possessions was the most efficient game (1.73 PPP) in the modern era*, knocking off DePaul’s annihilation of Syracuse last season (1.65). 

    It seems like a good time to reveal my latest project - the HD box score. Much like HDTV, it’s not necessary to view a box score in HD to understand what went on during a game, but it does add some resolution to your experience. I’ve got some more work to do on this, but the player data is pretty much set. The essence of the HD box score is that opportunities are…


    Gray Matter

    by Ken Pomeroy on Tuesday, February 13, 2007

    [Note: I have no ftp service today, so there will be no updates to the stats/ratings pages.]

    Q: How much is a star player actually worth to his team?

    A: To be revealed later this week. But based on the data I have, I found it interesting when Jamie Dixon went to the coaches playbook and pulled Aaron Gray after he picked up his 4th foul against Louisville last night. Sure, Pitt was down by 15 to Louisville, and the game was slipping away anyway. But there was just over 14 minutes remaining, and at that moment, Jamie Dixon conceded a loss.

    Subject: Georgetown


    This team is on a run…..just watched them embarrass WVU…..what’s your take on these boys running the table in the Big East?  They host Pittsburgh on the 24th I believe to avenge an earlier loss….I just don’t see anyone in the nation stopping their offense,…


    Page 1 of 2 pages  1 2 >