Sunday, January 07, 2007

Special Report: We Win!

I should do a companion piece to last season’s post at about this time. But instead, just a couple comments sparked by the coverage of the game.

At some point in the first half, Len Elmore referred to Greg Paulus’ freshman season as “extraordinary”. If he meant this in a bad way, I could see his point, but I’m pretty sure he didn’t. While most may not share Lenny’s glowing view of Paulus’ play last season, it does seem that just about every mainstream analyst is obsessed with the guy and seems to think he is something he really is not.

Let’s be honest here, Duke had two of the most efficient, reliable, high-usage scorers last season. Now think about this - did those guys make Greg Paulus better, or did Paulus make them better? I think logically, we know the answer. And yet, Paulus’ stats were still sub-ordinary.

Here are Greg’s pertinent stats over the last two seasons:

             ARate  TORate  %Shots  eFG%
Paulus '07    25.9   35.6    14.5   62.5
Paulus '06    26.1   32.8    11.9   43.0

[For definitions and context, go here.]

Paulus was a walking turnover machine last season. Typically, as a player’s shooting rate increases, his turnover rate decreases. But even though Paulus is a little more involved in the offense this season, his turnover rate continues to rise. And this doesn’t include yesterday’s 18-minute, 6-turnover performance. Now, I’ll grant you Paulus has improved his shooting, although it will take a hit during conference play.

He can shoot well, he can pass fairly well, but his ball-handling is about as bad as you’ll see from a starting point guard in major college basketball. Paulus has committed 4.6 turnovers per 40 minutes. There aren’t many starting point guards in major college ball with that rate. Somebody who is similar is Derrick Jasper of Kentucky. As a freshman, here are Jasper’s numbers so far:

             ARate  TORate  %Shots  eFG%
Jasper '07    29.1   38.4     9.0   63.2

Their games aren’t exactly identical. When Jasper does shoot, it’s usually of the two-handed throw-down variety. But he’s also a turnover machine who has a nice assist rate. Nobody is going to call his performance extraordinary or even solid. Like Paulus, Jasper may someday be a solid point guard. I think it’s OK to say that, instead of heaping false praise on a guy where it’s clearly not warranted. To call either player extraordinary is a disservice to freshmen who are truly outstanding (ahem, Dominic James last season, for instance).

(Obligatory disclaimer: this is in no way a personal attack on Mr. Paulus. I am sure he is a fine young man bound to be a productive member of society, probably wearing a suit and tie on the Duke bench. I’m also fairly sure he could take the criticism if he read this. I just don’t want you to think I am trying to make him cry or anything. Honestly, I’ve decided against posting something like this about three or four times, both this season and last, but today was the last straw. These things have to be said.)

At some point late in the game, Elmore’s compadre Mike Patrick said something about how Duke’s high number of turnovers (they finished with 22) was “uncharacteristic”. Perhaps I’ll give Mike the benefit of the doubt that he was referring to Duke in a historic sense. But their crazy tunrover rate is the number one reason their offense has struggled this season. The stats get hidden a little to due their slow pace this season, but they’re there.

And with Virginia Tech having one of the most disruptive backcourts in the nation, the only surprise in this game would have been if Duke had kept the turnovers under 15 or so. That would have been news. And that was partly why I was expecting an ugly game. The other part was that I didn’t expect the Hokies backcourt to make a bunch of shots against a stout defense, as they did for all but the last 10 minutes of the game.

Finally, I leave you with a prediction. (Hard to believe my motto is “predictions are stupid”.) At some point in late February, with Virginia Tech chasing a tournament berth, the media will look back on this game as a turning point. We’ll probably find out that there was a players-only meeting last week or there was an inspirational pep talk from the coach. Something like that.

But it was no turning point. Virginia Tech is like every other team in a bubble predicament. They play a few great games and a few dogs. It just so happens that each of their poor outings has been a close loss. I get the feeling that if the Hokies had 5-point wins over Western Michigan and Marshall (instead of losses) and had a 10-point loss to Duke, they’d actually be taken more seriously at this point. But they’d be the same team regardless.

Friday, January 05, 2007

I Am Not Your Father, Luke

Ken,

The other night I got a career high 21 minutes. I went 7-11 for 15 points, had 6 boards and not turnovers, and it was against a top 50 defense this time. I am currently the most efficient high-usage player in the country and sitting on the bench half the game. Just thought I’d let you know how things are going.

Luke H.

Yet another imaginary discussion with Luke. But did you know that? Our boy Harangody is the most efficient high-usage player in the country. (Actually, it’s been that way for the last four weeks.) Granted, he’s played some weak competition (ND’s defensive schedule strength is ranked 267th) and since he’s coming off the bench, he gets to face the opposing reserves a little more often than a starter would. But this Notre Dame team has a chance to do some great things this season. While I think Mike Brey is one of the great offensive minds in the game, he isn’t getting the most out of his team without putting Luke on the floor for the 10 or 12 additional minutes he can get out of him. I know beating this drum every week has become tiresome. So, Luke, you’re on your own. I’m done with you. If the Irish lose 4 or 5 close games the rest of the way, I can no longer stick up for your team and call it bad luck.

Ken,

Pretty basic line from last night...except for one category.

Over 84% (37/44) of WVU’s total FG attempts were three-pointers.  WVU’s usually a little higher up in that category than most teams, but never to that degree.

Got me thinking: what’s the highest 3FG/TotalFG you’ve seen?  Has anyone topped 90%?

Chad

This isn’t the half of it. Actually, the half of it is more interesting, namely, the second half. The Mountaineers took 15 of their 17 shots from 3 after intermission, and one of those was a Darris Nichols’ bomb where he inadvertently had a toe on the line. So they only attempted one 2-pointer intentionally. This WVU team is a little different from its predecessor in that it has shot the 3 pretty well so far. They turn the ball over a little more, but so far have rebounded better on the offensive end. The biggest difference is that their defense has been spectacular, which wasn’t a trademark of the Pittsnogle years. Villanova seemed to flat out give up near the end of the first half.

Since the 2004 season, which will be known as “history” from now on, only two other teams have been able to take 80% of their shots from beyond the arc. This game between Princeton and UTEP from two seasons ago, and Saint Joe’s in a January 2004 game against Temple. (One of the casualties of John Chaney’s retirement is no more 3-point shooting contests between the Hawks and the Owls.) So this goes down as the highest 3-point rate in the history of man until someone proves otherwise.

Hey

Are you back on.  That UNLV loss does not look so bad now, does it.

Also did you like the Zag came.

You should be careful not to jump on and off bandwagons to quickly as it hurts your credibility.

Credibility? Anonymous Nevada fan, did you see what I was writing about Washington State at this time last year? No need to expect credibility when you come here. (Just so we’re clear, you want me to jump back on the bandwagon, right?)

Ken,

So you’re jumping off the Nevada Wolf Pack bandwagon after they hung a loss on Akron in their home arena where they’d won 21 in a row and right before an exciting victory over Gonzaga in an arena that was anything but neutral?  I can understand why you may not be impressed with the Pack’s margin of victory in many games, but you may not have been aware that Coach Fox has been rotating in several true freshmen (sometimes 4 at a time) any time Nevada gets a substantial lead. That has helped several opponents to keep the games closer than they should have been, but it will pay big dividends down the road. I also understand why you’d be unimpressed with the WAC as a whole considering the weakness of the OOC schedules, but I think the top of the WAC is pretty darn good. NMSU, Fresno, Hawaii and Utah State are all good teams along with Nevada. Hopefully the Bracketbuster schedulers will match the WAC up with the top teams from the MVC plus Butler. I think you’ll be surprised by the results.

As always, your site is the best resource on the net. Thanks for the hard work.

Pat

Nevada not only won the Battle in Seattle, but the also won the battle of the inbox last week. This was one of the more thought out e-mails.

Yay, they beat Gonzaga. Congrats, but Gonzaga hasn’t held anybody below a point per possession since November. I mean, Nevada fans need to get used to the fact that they’ll probably be ranked the rest of the season and I’ll probably be complaining about it from time to time. Look, if your looking for positive press about the Wolf Pack, there are about a million other people willing to give you that.

But I don’t follow the herd. How boring would that be. I’m going to tell you Pitt’s defense has issues, even when the “experts” claim they are still winning with defense. I’m going to tell you I’m skeptical about Wichita State when others say they could be a Final Four team. I’m going to say that Washington will be a bubble team (if they improve) when writers are still throwing a lot of top 25 votes at them.

Other things you’ll only get here: The Duke/Virginia Tech game tomorrow will be one of the ugliest, most difficult to watch games of the season, and even if UConn loses to LSU Saturday, they’ll still be a factor in the Big East race, despite having not beaten anyone of note to this point. (UConn should beat LSU, though, unless the Temple/Mitchell combo has a productive shooting game.) It’s all here for posterity until I edit it on Sunday.

Maybe I’ll be right, and maybe I’ll be wrong about Nevada. Check back in a couple months. Here’s hoping they do get the best possible BracketBusters opponent, because I’d like to see them get a good test from an MVC team in mid-February. I’d make sure to plant myself in front of the TV for that. They’re going to get a really nice seed if they win the WAC, but I’d be suprised if they see the second weekend of the tourney. And while the tight wins over Akron and Gonzaga were better than losses, they don’t change my mind very much. One or two games rarely change my mind about anything.

Seriously, I love you people in the WAC. I spent my formative blogging years listening to streaming audio of Hawaii games at 2 in the morning. Don’t go all Oklahoma State on me over this, OK?

Coming up on Monday: I have it on good authority that I’ll have a free column on espn.com. So check it out and then sign up for insider, because it’ll probably never happen again. Also on Monday, I’ll be introducing a new toy on this site, so come back then.