Monday, March 20, 2006

Charting Sunday’s Games

Bradley 72, Pittsburgh 66 [68 possessions] - Patrick O’Bryant: 28 points, 7 boards. Aaron Gray: 12 points, 4 boards. There is some stuff that happens during the Tournament that affects things beyond the event. For instance, Steve Alford probably won’t be going to Indiana, and Brandon Rush and Tyler Hansbrough aren’t going pro after early losses. And Bradley may be a pre-season top 25 team next season. They lose Marcus Sommerville, but clearly O’Bryant and the rest of his buddies will get a lot of preseason hype in a few months. Pitt gave Bradley an eight possession head start in this one, and you don’t win many games this time of year doing that. Possessograph^TM supplied below.

Memphis 72, Bucknell 56 [63] - We can rule out the C-USA rust factor from impacting Memphis’ future. Bucknell went to the line 29 times, their fourth-highest total of the season.

George Mason 65, North Carolina 60 [65] - Wow. 30 3-pointers and 4 FTAs for UNC. A season-high and low, respectively. Mason changed defenses a bunch, but generally forced the guards to make plays. The Patriots’ defense has rated as big-conference quality all season, but this was their most impressive performance. When Wichita State hosted George Mason in the BracketBusters, they knew as part of the BracketBusters rules that they would have to return the home game. But who knew it would be this season?

Connecticut 87, Kentucky 83 [74] - I know Kentucky fans feel kind of blah about this team. But they had no right to expect their offense would be so good this season. One of the most underappreciated stories of the season was how effective the Wildcat offense became towards the end of the season, so it was good to see them go out in such an obvious blaze of offensive glory. Who knew that Azubuike and Hayes meant so much defensively?

West Virginia 67, Northwestern State 54 [68] - A season-high 33 FTAs for WVU, their most since their second-round victory in last season’s tournament. When coincidentally, they also only made seven 3-pointers.

Texas 75, N.C. State 54 [67] - Sets up a rematch of a November game with WVU, which was a Texas one-point victory thanks to three consecutive missed free throws in the one-and-one in the final minute.

Georgetown 70, Ohio State 52 [59] - I think the “A Wonkalypse Now" graphic would be appropriate on the official Big Ten website today. A once promising Buckeye season really ground to a halt the last couple of weeks. They only rebounded 3 of their 28 missed field goals in this one. I continue to admire the tortoise-like dominance of Roy Hibbert (20 and 14).

Villanova 82, Arizona 78 [64] - Game effort from Arizona in the mandatory mascot vs. mascot game for this round. I would have enacted the Pac-10 emergency siren a la Drudge had the losing Wildcats actually pulled this one out.

We’re down to 16 now. It would be sweet justice for CBS to send Billy Packer to DC to have to call the Wichita State/George Mason game. One of those teams will be playing for a Final Four bid next Sunday. But we all know Packer will be in Atlanta to call the potential Duke/Texas showdown.

It’s kind of funny how people are saying the committee looks good now. They made epic mistakes, but it just so happened that Nantz and Packer, by being ignorant of the basketball landscape, chose to call the most attention to the things for which the committee had a reasonable defense. If you want some numerical evidence of the non-power conferences ability to compete as a lower seed, here’s something (with associated links from there to more info).

Saturday, March 18, 2006

Charting Saturday’s Games

Duke 74, George Washington 61 [71 possessions] - A fairly easy win over the Great Unknown. It’s up to George Mason to represent our nation’s forefathers in the Sweet 16.

Florida 82, UW Milwaukee 60 [66] - I’m starting to get a ‘97 Arizona vibe here - a few emerging pro players coming together and playing their best ball in March. This is the most balanced offensive team that’s still playing.

Wichita State 80, Tennessee 73 [65] - A very poor defensive game by the Vols. They allowed far too many easy chances resulting in either layups or free throws. I’ll miss the character that is Major Wingate. Unfair though it was, the MVC really had to get a team to the Sweet 16 to quiet the critics. Who are the Shockers rooting for tomorrow? Theoretically they’d rather play a double-digit seed, but they got beat at home by George Mason a month ago. Whereas Mark Turgeon is a Roy Williams disciple and won’t need to do a whole lot of preparation for UNC.

Washington 67, Illinois 64 [68] - A game that lived up to my expectations. One of the things about this time of year is that somebody’s career ends in unexpected fashion. Last season, Illinois did it to Salim Stoudamire in a stunning comeback. This year, it looked like Illinois was cruising to the Sweet 16, but then it went south over the last five minutes, and next thing you know, we won’t see Dee Brown play any more.

LSU 58, Texas A&M 57 [66] -In two years, Billy Gillispie turned a team that was a perennial conference doormat into a squad that was one shot away from getting to the Sweet 16. With one possession left and a two-point deficit, you had to feel pretty bad about LSU’s chances. But all that bad mojo from the regular season turned around as Darrel Mitchell hit a three after whatever play John Brady concocted in the time-out broke down. The Tigers steal a win shooting 37.0% eFG.

Boston College 69, Montana 56 [62] - Grizmania comes to a sudden end. Montana plays some zone, and tries to force BC into relying on 3s. BC goes 8-for-17 from behind the arc and only 19-for-47 from 2.

UCLA 62, Alabama 59 [57] - Not an easy win at all for the Bruins. Arron Afflalo didn’t score for the first 26 minutes, but finished with 13 points including a huge 3 in the final minute to give UCLA a four-point lead. UCLA wins despite going 5-for-13 from the free throw line. The Pac-10 is looking pretty solid at 5-1. West Coast basketball enthusiasts unite!

Gonzaga 90, Indiana 80 [72] - Hey, the Zags looked like a bona fide 3-seed! Gonzaga shot 41 free throws to Indiana’s six, but this was all about style. Indiana shot 36 3s compared to Gonzaga’s 11. Players not named Killingsworth shot a grand total of 20 2s. Morrison only got 14 points on .69 PPWS, but man, if his teammates play against UCLA like they did in this one, the Zags have a fighting chance.

Now it’s time to hunker down for Slow-Down Sunday. Villanova/Arizona would seem to be the only contest that has a chance to top 70 possessions. Pitt/Bradley should be a fun, if low-scoring, affair to start the day off. I’ll invoke space-aged Possessograph^TM technology on it if it turns into a good one.

Charting Friday’s Games

A rundown of the “action” on a slow-paced Friday…

Ohio State 70, Davidson 60 [68 possessions] - The Buckeyes put together another strugglicious performance on 3s (5-22), but only committed four turnovers and steadily pulled away in the second half.

Northwestern State 64, Iowa 63 [64] - The March Madness Moment of ‘06. A classic case of putting yourself in position to lose. After a couple of free throws by Doug Thomas, Iowa led 56-42 with 7:29 left. The normally impenetrable Hawkeye D allows the Demons to score 22 points the rest of the way.

Arizona 94, Wisconsin 75 [67] -When this Arizona team is on, they can be scary. This was the most impressive offensive performance of the first round, with the Cats going off for 63.6% eFG on a solid defense. The Pac-10 is looking great with three easy wins.

Bucknell 59, Arkansas 55 [59] - Remember when I told you to pick Arkansas to go all the way? Well, you weren’t going to win the ESPN pool by picking UConn over Duke anyway. You might think the Arkansas offense was the reason for the loss, but Bucknell has a terrific defense (they’re #1 in the raw version of defensive efficiency). Giving up a point per possession and 51.1% eFG to the Bison was the Hogs undoing.

Georgetown 54, Northern Iowa 49 [53] - The slowest game of the first round. The Hoyas get all of two points from leading scorer Jeff Green, but still win comfortably. Big East gets to 1-3.

West Virginia 64, Southern Illinois 46 [58] - Very impressive win by the Mountaineers. A big deal was made of their poor finish, but their conference schedule was heavily back-loaded with tough games. Just an average 3-point shooting game for them (11 for 32).

Memphis 94, Oral Roberts 78 [69] - To my surprise, Memphis looked the best of all the 1-seeds. Oral Bob did what it wanted to do offensively. They also did what they wanted to do defensively, but Memphis hit its jumpers with regularity (11 for 22 on 3s), and hit the offensive boards on misses (41% OR).

Villanova 58, Monmouth 45 [61] - What was it with slow games on Friday? Just an ugly, ugly win, but the Big East gets back to .500.

Pitt 79, Kent State 64 [61] - I confess to not having seen a minute of this game. Pitt posts a 73.9% eFG, with two starters having a 6-for-6 shooting night.

George Mason 75, Michigan State 65 [66] - A fitting end to the season for Sparty. Michigan State never got its rebounding and defensive issues totally solved, and they go down to a CAA team that was missing a starter. They got just 6 offensive rebounds and 5 FTAs, compared to 10 and 26 for Mason.

N.C. State 58, California 52 [55] - The Pac-10 falls from perfection thanks to a late Cam Bennerman 3-ball. Bet Texas is really looking forward to another 55 possession game in the second round.

UConn 72, Albany 59 [60] - So the only true 16-seed scare comes against UConn. I’m sure a lot of fluky things happened in Albany’s favor, but Marcus Williams, 14 of 42 on 3s coming in, going 5 of 7 was definitely a nice surprise for the Huskies. The most shocking stat is Albany hitting 20 of 37 (54.1%) from 2 with only 5 blocked shots against a team that held opponents to 40.5% from 2 on the season. The Big East finishes the first round at 5-3.

North Carolina 69, Murray State 65 [66] - Man, we couldn’t even get a fast-paced game out of UNC. See the Iowa game above: The Tar Heels put themselves in position to lose and dodged the bullet that the Hawkeyes couldn’t.

Bradley 77, Kansas 73 [73] - The only fast game of the day. I had mentioned on Tuesday that Bradley could give KU trouble. Looking at it the other way, Kansas didn’t give Bradley much trouble in this one. I’ll regret not seeing a Pitt/Kansas game, but Pitt/Bradley is almost as compelling. We’ll have a game featuring two of the best seven-footers in the country, Gray vs. O’Bryant. I don’t like to make predictions, but I’m guessing Pitt doesn’t shoot 73% on Sunday. The Braves salvage a 2-2 record for the Valley.

Texas 60, Penn 55 [55] - In a sign of things to come, Aldridge and Tucker play all 40 minutes. Might the day be coming where Mike Williams spends the entire game on the bench? No, but Rick Barnes would get away with it if he could.

Kentucky 69, UAB 64 [63] - You might not want to believe it, but Kentucky relied on its offense for wins all season, and they did so again in this one. In fact, this game was vintage Kentucky. They shot horribly (19-61, 31.1%), but they did enough of the other 3 factors (44.4% OR, 12.7% TO, 26-30 FTs) to have an efficient night against a decent defense. Their offense has been ugly but very effective since Randolph Morris returned.

Missouri State 76, Stanford 67 [70] - OK, not an NCAA Tournament game, but any objective evidence out there said that Mo State had a better case for an at-large than Seton Hall, Air Force, or Utah State. I realize the NIT isn’t a fair proving ground for snubbed teams, what with the home sites and some teams mentally checking out. But I got the Bears going all the way in my NIT bracket. Next up: a Monday game hosting Houston.

The first round is in the books. It didn’t provide the volume of upsets I expected, but nine of the top 12 teams had a challenge.

I’m looking forward to GW/Duke and Illinois/Washington today.