Friday, March 24, 2006

Charting the Sweet 16, Part 1

Thanks to all who participated in yesterday’s contest. Answers were submitted for Adam Morrison, Keydren Clark, and Brion Rush. But most people had the correct answer - Eastern Washington’s Rodney Stuckey had the highest point total in a regulation game with 45 against Northern Arizona on January 5. Erik Kreutner submitted his e-mail first, so he gets the game, which is a small consolation for his Blue Devils being eliminated from the tournament.

Now here are a few disjointed tidbits about last night’s games.

LSU 62, Duke 54 [71 possessions] - We got a look at a great offense at its worst here. Credit Tyrus Thomas for shutting down the middle and Garrett Temple for shutting down J.J. Redick. Luke Winn did a nice statistical preview before the game. LSU is much like Florida State offensively, a team that doesn’t much care for the 3, and thus is not as punishable by what Duke’s D does best. Sure enough, LSU only made two 3s, but it didn’t matter. Of course, the story wasn’t LSU’s offense nearly as much as it was their defense.

Memphis 80, Bradley 64 [74] - If I didn’t have any knowledge of what teams did before the tournament, I’d say the best teams are Florida and Memphis. Memphis has only played seeds 9, 13 and 16, but none of those games have been in doubt after halftime. Bradley was held to 37.5% eFG. Thanks to the CBS research department, we can add another statistical extreme to Joey Dorsey - he has been T’d up more than any other player in the nation this season, garnering his 7th technical in this game courtesy of Ted Valentine.

Texas 74, West Virginia 71 [63] - The two games in this round that I most wanted to see happened to be played in the same time slot. I Possessographed this game (below), and it didn’t disappoint. WVU scored on just five of its first 23 possessions. But all of those scores were 3-balls and the Mountaineers found itself down by only 8. They would make only one 2-pointer in the first half.

In the end, Texas had an offensive rebound advantage of 56.6% to 9.7%. But the Mountaineers went 15 of 33 from 3 and only committed 8 turnovers to stay competitive. Give Rick Barnes a bunch of credit for letting his team play out the last frantic possession without a timeout, but somehow I doubt he would have done that if his team was behind instead of tied. Give John Beilein credit for getting more out of his team than any other coach in the country.

UCLA 73, Gonzaga 71 [68] - It only took 33 games, but the Zags finally earned my respect. They were the better team for 38 minutes, getting the best of one of the better defenses in the land and playing some legitimate D themselves. If Erroll Knight was on the floor in the last two minutes, Gonzaga would have moved on to meet Memphis.

Thursday, March 23, 2006

Sweet 16 Preview

Before I get to the preview, the folks at Grey Dog Software have given me a copy of their new college hoops simulation, Total College Basketball, to give away. This game is a simulation, so you’re not going to be doing 360 dunks or anything like that. You’re the coach and you manage all aspects of your program (recruiting, scheduling, practices, and yes, games).

I’ve played it a little and it seems to have all the bases covered. Anyway, it’s a $35 value, so if you’d like a copy, be the first to e-mail me with the name of the player that scored the most points in a 40-minute Division I game this season. [There’s been a winner. Thanks!]

Here’s my Sweet 16 preview in a format of where they’ve been, where they are, where they’re going. Each team is listed with their preseason odds (as listed by Caesar’s on 8/16/05), their current standing among Sweet 16 teams in tempo, adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency, and their key players as ranked by DraftExpress (as of 3/2/06) in the top 100 of each class.

Keep in the mind the player rankings have more to do with NBA potential that current ability (see: Josh Boone, Sean Williams), but since it’s generally assumed that the team with the most talent wins, I thought it would be enlightening to see where the talent is. It does give you a picture of who the true underdogs are.

Atlanta (Tonight)
Duke: 4-1 odds, #3 tempo, #1 offense, #10 defense. J.J. Redick - #1 Senior. Shelden Williams - #2 Senior. Sean Dockery - #63 Senior. DeMarcus Nelson - #71 Sophomore. Josh McRoberts - #4 Freshman. Greg Paulus - #15 Freshman.

LSU: 22-1 odds, #6 tempo, #14 offense, #4 defense. Glen Davis- #38 Sophomore. Tyrus Thomas - #1 Freshman. Magnum Rolle - #20 Freshman. Tasmin Mitchell - #24 Freshman.

Texas: 18-1 odds, #10 tempo, #2 offense, #2 defense. Brad Buckman - #68 Senior. P.J. Tucker - #29 Junior. LaMarcus Aldridge - #1 Sophomore. Daniel Gibson - #17 Sophomore.

West Virginia: 30-1 odds, #13 tempo, #10 offense, #14 defense. Mike Gansey - #16 Senior. Kevin Pittsnogle - #28 Senior.

Oakland (Tonight)
Memphis: 25-1 odds, #2 tempo, #11 offense, #5 defense. Rodney Carney - #3 Senior. Darius Washington - #4 Sophomore. Shawne Williams - #5 Freshman. Joey Dorsey - #48 Sophomore. Antonio Anderson - #14 Freshman. Chris Douglas-Roberts #19 Freshman. Robert Dozier - #30 Freshman.

Bradley: unlisted odds, #5 tempo, #15 offense, #7 defense. Marcellus Sommerville - #86 Senior. Patrick O’Bryant - #11 Sophomore.

Gonzaga: 22-1 odds, #8 tempo, #3 offense, #16 defense. J.P. Batista - #44 Senior. Erroll Knight - #60 Senior. Adam Morrison - #1 Junior. Derek Raivio - #44 Junior. Josh Heytvelt - #29 Freshman.

UCLA: 35-1 odds, #14 tempo, #11 offense, #1 defense. Cedric Bozeman - #75 Senior. Ryan Hollins - #70 Senior. Jordan Farmar - #6 Sophomore. Arron Afflalo - #24 Sophomore. Luc Richard Mbah a Moute - #25 Freshman.

Washington (Friday)
UConn: 7-1 odds, #4 tempo, #5 offense, #3 defense. Hilton Armstrong - #7 Senior. Rashad Anderson - #29 Senior. Denham Brown - #40 Senior. Josh Boone - #4 Junior. Marcus Williams - #5 Junior. Rudy Gay - #2 Sophomore.

Washington: 60-1 odds, #1 tempo, #9 offense, #11 defense. Brandon Roy - #8 Senior. Bobby Jones - #23 Senior.

George Mason: unlisted odds, #12 tempo, #16 offense, #8 defense.

Wichita State: unlisted odds, #11 tempo, #13 offense, #14 defense.

Minneapolis (Friday)
Villanova: 8-1 odds, #9 tempo, #4 offense, #9 defense. Randy Foye - #5 Senior.  Allan Ray - #20 Senior. Jason Fraser - #51 Senior. Mike Nardi - #61 Junior. Kyle Lowry - #8 Sophomore.

Boston College: 18-1 odds, #15 tempo, #6 offense, #15 defense. Craig Smith - #53 Senior. Jared Dudley - #16 Junior. Sean Williams - #26 Sophomore.

Florida: 50-1 odds, #7 tempo, #8 offense, #6 defense. Chris Richard - #62 Junior. Al Horford - #5 Sophomore, Corey Brewer - #7 Sophomore. Joakim Noah - #14 Sophomore.

Georgetown: 400-1 odds, #16 tempo, #7 offense, #12 defense. Brandon Bowman - #69 Senior. Jeff Green - #18 Sophomore. Roy Hibbert - #22 Sophomore. 

Tuesday, March 21, 2006

It’s good to be a VIP

Let me tell you, it felt real good to log on and watch some games last Thursday knowing that signing up early for the VIP treatment would have such tremendous benefits.

Here’s a review of the past week in Lines o’ the Night.

Tuesday

                           FG    3pt  FT   Reb
                      Min  M-A   M-A  M-A  O-T   A F S TO BLK Pts
Jason Williams         33  5-8   2-2  5-6  4-11 10 1 3  3  0   17
Result: Win. UTEP 85, Lipscomb 66.                

Wednesday

                           FG    3pt  FT   Reb
                      Min  M-A   M-A  M-A  O-T   A F S TO BLK Pts
Vincent Grier          34  7-16  0-0  4-5  2-7   8 3 4  2  0   18
Result: Win. Minnesota 73, Wake Forest 58.

Thursday

                           FG    3pt  FT   Reb
                      Min  M-A   M-A  M-A  O-T   A F S TO BLK Pts
Marcellus Kemp         36 14-22  3-7  3-3  3-5   1 4 2  2  1   34
Result: Loss. Montana 87, Nevada 79. 

Friday

                           FG    3pt  FT   Reb
                      Min  M-A   M-A  M-A  O-T   A F S TO BLK Pts
Aaron Gray             32  6-6   0-0  5-5  3-13  0 3 0  3  5   17
Result: Win. Pitt 79, Kent State 64.

Saturday

                           FG    3pt  FT   Reb
                      Min  M-A   M-A  M-A  O-T   A F S TO BLK Pts
Chris Lofton           34  7-21  6-18 0-0  1-3   2 2 2  2  0   20
Result: Loss. Wichita State 80, Tennessee 73.

Sunday

                           FG    3pt  FT   Reb
                      Min  M-A   M-A  M-A  O-T   A F S TO BLK Pts
Roy Hibbert            30  7-13  0-0  6-7  5-14  0 3 0  2  3   20
Result: Win. Georgetown 70, Ohio State 54.

Monday

                           FG    3pt  FT   Reb
                      Min  M-A   M-A  M-A  O-T   A F S TO BLK Pts
Daniel Horton          47 10-19  3-7  6-7  1-2   8 3 3  3  0   29
Result: Win. Michigan 87, Notre Dame 84. (2OT)